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There is another interesting thing happening here - look from 10 seconds - The 95.25 is bid - 518 is traded, and then suddenly it pumps up to over 1500 - they then pull the bid and sellers hit it - leaving 882 traded in total - Then the sellers push the market down.
Just started the course this week. So far so good. Basically John trades live in front of you explaining what he is looking at and why he took or did not take a trade. He records all the sessions which is good for me as I need to leave for work at 8am PST. I will have more info as we progress in the course.
See pic – the trade here is long off the low of the 2 point range. We see big volumes at the lower end of the range – selling is absorbed, this tells me it will hold, so we gotta look in DOM/Tape to identify the trade.
Around 1 minute mark there is some weird action going on at 1501.75/1502.00 BBO, look how big offer at 1502.25 leaves as soon as 1502.00 gets penetrated – it goes from ~2400 to 1000 which makes me think it was there only for purposes of making people sell.
At 1:40 big prints appear on bid at 1501.50 and 1501.75 and big offer at 1502.00 appears again – more luring?
2:00 – 2:10 a lot of selling, tape is fast and red, price penetrates 1501.25 lvl 1900 trade there – look at the numbers in contracts traded field - the lower price go, the harder it takes to penetrate each lvl
This is a spot to go long, or if hesitating – look further, 1501.50 gets bought out and 1501.75 leaves (goes from 2400 roughly to 600 roughly)
Later in the vid there is a chop between 1501.75 and 1502.25 lvls Look at the tape it turns mostly green towards the end of this chop – another opportunity to long.
Good entries (except for last one where i scaled in 3 times) but very bad exits. I find myself getting out early when i look solely into the DOM/Tape - a bad habit i'm willing to get rid off.
Videos are coming shortly, for the last one will try to analize why I should've not entered there.
00:00 - 00:25 look how 1493.75 gets penetrated, on;y 40 trade at 1493.50 and then someone buys out quickly the 1493.75 offer. At 00:24 I see offer leave from 1494.50 and offer stacking at 1494.25
At around 1:0 mark situation repeats - 1493.50 gets broken, big print appears in tape - 712 contracts, then 1493.50 becomes offer and gets bought out quickly. Notice how 1493.75 offer rises to 3168, but when price ticks up it leaves and 1493.75 gets bought with big print in tape of 631 contracrs - someone accumulates position and wants people to sell.
Later on similar situation repeats at 1493.25/1493.50 - 1493.50 after becoming offer gets bought out with 2500 contracts - this is after 2400 where traded on bid there.
Interesting observation - at 2:20 higher offers leave (1494.00 - 1494.50 lvls) and lower bids get stacked (1492.25 - 1492.75 lvls) and I see tape becoming more and more agressive to buy side afterwards. And then again bids leave off the lower lvls after 3:$0 mark -are they luring in more sellers? Probably! Cos after this I see faster tape print a lot of smaller prints - ritail traders trying to short. Their stops where probably the fuel for further upside
Amazing - I can't remember I saw a level that thick.
A lot of people will 'lean' on a level like that - they will sell in front of it because they presume it'll hold the market. In hindsight, it was probably just half of an arbitrage trade. Not that you can really tell that at the time.
If you look @ the other levels, there was no obvious stacking on either side apart from that level.
That was a real "come and get me offer". When price got there it didn't pull out of the way at all.
Anyway - I am not sure how I would play it, I would probably have gone short too! What you do can see is that 7258 contracts were sold at 1493.75 and a good proportion of those would be selling because they think 1494 will hold.
When 1494 didn't hold, those people that went short puked out because they realized they where wrong. You had a lot of buying when it moved up.
I think if anything - you could try to capitalize on those shorts exiting. Not an easy thing to do though but you could wait till the 74 level gets close to just a few hundred and then buy into it to benefit from the stops.
PS - sorry I have been absent - I sort of got myself overloaded with too many tasks over the past month!
I've seen a reversal pattern and decided to place my bet. The reasoning is explained on the pic.
I don't see much in the video here, even after watching it several times.
After the fact i'm sure smart money would need to lure people into buying here, but i don't notice the technology. Except taht in the beginning of the video I see bid stacking below BBO and offer leaving above BBO, but towards the end (after 2:00) situation changes to opposite and enhances towards the end (watch closely after 3:00 mark).
I also see that very little trade at 1499.00 each time price goes there.
@DionysusToast, what is your experience with trades timer interval (what settings would you reccomend using?), I've started noticing lately that 2500ms is way to much, cos sometimes it won't let me see the real amount traded at certain level when price jumps back and forth (wich happens a lot on ES).
Also could you please explain why sometimes trades print even if price doesn't move (look closely at around 3:20) - price doesn't tick down but buys appear at 1498.25 lvl - 195 of them) Is this because of GUI lag?
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