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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)
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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)

  #981 (permalink)
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adamov View Post
All right guys, I think I see what is the problem here.
I was chasing the wrong thing the whole time. A method that will tell me what is going to happen next. Something that is going to predict price movement for the next minutes or couple of ticks based on the events of the past.

Whats wrong with this approach?
It doesnt matter how strong the support line is there, how many contracts traded there earlier, how many bids are pulled out, what was the employment data like, not even my horoscope. None of them will stop or move the price up or down.
These are history, nothing more.

Only the orders during the following minute will determine what the price is going to be in the end of the next minute. Market and limit orders of other traders.
What are those orders gonna be? You can never know. Even if you knew that a big player will come in who has the buying power to clear up limit orders from several price level to move the price up or down, a bigger fish could come in too and fade that move.

The best you can do is to abandon all your expectations and focus on what’s happening NOW by following other traders reaction.
Then re-eavaluate the situation, price by price, second by second, tick by tick and react if you have to.

How couldn’t I see this earlier?! It is in the very first post:

Well - I think there's a flip side.

You can....

- watch the market move to a level you know a lot of people are looking at
- see that someone steps up and absorbs there
- see another attempt at the level
- see a bunch of buyers come in and push price up

and then say to yourself....

"This market has reversed"

You do not need to get in at the first sign that order flow says it may be holding. You might see a few things going on over time that convince you that this is a reversal. Then you consider where you are, where we may be going, how volatile that market is today - then you work an entry.

Fact is - a major reversal is a tricky thing to play - but no-one says you have to catch the low of the day. If you think the low may be in because of what occurred down there, you should still have plenty of room to take a chunk out of that market.

Also - you need to watch the order flow at major reversals but also on pullbacks. One is easier than the other

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  #982 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
Well - I think there's a flip side.

You can....

- watch the market move to a level you know a lot of people are looking at
- see that someone steps up and absorbs there
- see another attempt at the level
- see a bunch of buyers come in and push price up

and then say to yourself....

"This market has reversed"

You do not need to get in at the first sign that order flow says it may be holding. You might see a few things going on over time that convince you that this is a reversal. Then you consider where you are, where we may be going, how volatile that market is today - then you work an entry.

Fact is - a major reversal is a tricky thing to play - but no-one says you have to catch the low of the day. If you think the low may be in because of what occurred down there, you should still have plenty of room to take a chunk out of that market.

Also - you need to watch the order flow at major reversals but also on pullbacks. One is easier than the other


Totally agree!

You can. Whats more, you are strongly recommend to do that. This is the way to read the market.
But I’d better to say to myself: „This market is about to reverse” there are signs indicating that. At least in the very last moment.
What if we went higher and there is more buying than before but we are facing even more selling?
In this case I wont be that sure anymore that the market has reversed. You must fit this new information in and reevaluate the whole thing.

The situation you mentioned also could be the result of somebody’s operation who wants artificially create a little more (buying) liquidity because he has much more to sell. He has a plenty to sell but prices are falling rapidly it’s his best interest to slow things now by buying and keep price in range at the low. This way he may make other sellers to cover and/or increase confidence of buyers and lure them in. Its even more effective if he let the buyers to break out for a couple of tick. Now he has the desired liqudity he can sell everything he wanted /much more than he had to buy earlier to stop the move/ at a much better price..

So when can we surely say to ourself that this market has reversed indeed? When we are far enough from that place or time when it occured to not to make any money from it.

Of course, You must have a concept about what is going on NOW (not a concept about what is going to happen in the next 10 second), you can’t just fire randomly. This concept is based on what you wrote: watching price action and order flow. (reactions of other traders)
But the worst one can make stop „updating” his concept and transform it into an opinion an the most crucial time in the same moment when he enters the market.
I’ve read somewhere: „A trader can’t afford that luxury to have an opinion” If someone has an opinion he’ll stick to it, this will eventually narrow his sight.

Perhaps the biggest mistake is to think that the trade is over when you are in and placed your stop and target. The setup was clear, you made you move, only thing is left to sit down and wait how it will work out.
Trading starts just right then when you placed you bet. Your setup does not matter anymore, the past does not matter either, the only thing that matters and makes your trade a winner or a loser is how other traders will react to this new situation from now in the future.

And the future is coming for you tick by tick in the form of „NOW”

So if you want to get the most of your trade you must keep updating your concept by evaluating other’s reactions. If reactions fit in you picture: its good, if isn’t: drop your opinion drop your hopes and get out.

The bottom line is everything you stated is true and this is the only way I can imagine to trade markets (at least legally ), but it must be keep up the „anything can happen” mindset and react accordingly no matter how obvious the situation looks like. In other words: react other traders’ reaction no matter what!

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  #983 (permalink)
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adamov View Post
Totally agree!

You can. Whats more, you are strongly recommend to do that. This is the way to read the market.
But I’d better to say to myself: „This market is about to reverse” there are signs indicating that. At least in the very last moment.
What if we went higher and there is more buying than before but we are facing even more selling?
In this case I wont be that sure anymore that the market has reversed. You must fit this new information in and reevaluate the whole thing.

The situation you mentioned also could be the result of somebody’s operation who wants artificially create a little more (buying) liquidity because he has much more to sell. He has a plenty to sell but prices are falling rapidly it’s his best interest to slow things now by buying and keep price in range at the low. This way he may make other sellers to cover and/or increase confidence of buyers and lure them in. Its even more effective if he let the buyers to break out for a couple of tick. Now he has the desired liqudity he can sell everything he wanted /much more than he had to buy earlier to stop the move/ at a much better price..

So when can we surely say to ourself that this market has reversed indeed? When we are far enough from that place or time when it occured to not to make any money from it.

Of course, You must have a concept about what is going on NOW (not a concept about what is going to happen in the next 10 second), you can’t just fire randomly. This concept is based on what you wrote: watching price action and order flow. (reactions of other traders)
But the worst one can make stop „updating” his concept and transform it into an opinion an the most crucial time in the same moment when he enters the market.
I’ve read somewhere: „A trader can’t afford that luxury to have an opinion” If someone has an opinion he’ll stick to it, this will eventually narrow his sight.

Perhaps the biggest mistake is to think that the trade is over when you are in and placed your stop and target. The setup was clear, you made you move, only thing is left to sit down and wait how it will work out.
Trading starts just right then when you placed you bet. Your setup does not matter anymore, the past does not matter either, the only thing that matters and makes your trade a winner or a loser is how other traders will react to this new situation from now in the future.

And the future is coming for you tick by tick in the form of „NOW”

So if you want to get the most of your trade you must keep updating your concept by evaluating other’s reactions. If reactions fit in you picture: its good, if isn’t: drop your opinion drop your hopes and get out.

The bottom line is everything you stated is true and this is the only way I can imagine to trade markets (at least legally ), but it must be keep up the „anything can happen” mindset and react accordingly no matter how obvious the situation looks like. In other words: react other traders’ reaction no matter what!

Hahahahahaha i like this stuff man))))
This is essential crazy free of all rules point of view and you god damhn right. Market do not cares so why do we need to care. Fire your shot and come what may))))
I must say the life is the same thing)))
Be free
It is time to learn.from you what a trader should be))

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  #984 (permalink)
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I think we should rename this thread to paradox trading. I feel so good. @adamov i am enjoy your energy that finaly brakes your ego mind. I enjoy your convinience. You pro trader now but without experience. But this is paradox)))) indeed

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  #985 (permalink)
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Futures Edge on FIO
Trade is over than you place + 1 or 2 tick stop out or covered your position. But you right. Trade begins as you entered)))
This is it. This is reality blows away the shit dors of your mind. What a show))))
Make them pay man))
The confused mind only able to trade as it free at any time. Stay confused

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  #986 (permalink)
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TRC004

FESX 03-15
01/16/2015
1405-1426 (GMT+1)
Breakout

This kind of reactions you like to see while shorting the market.

14:06:11 SLO @3162
14:08:26 SLO goes to @3160
14:09:03 SLO goes marketable
14:11:34 new SLO @3156
14:11:51 SLO goes lower to @3155
14:11:56 SLO goes lower to @3154
14:12:00 SLO goes lower to @3153
14:12:23 SLO hit @3153
14:12:38 new SLO @3155
14:15:05 SLO is real @3155
14:19:09 new SLO @3152
14:20:44 BLO from @3145 goes to market / SLO @3051 holds
14:21:44 SLO-s go lower
14:21:50 SLO-s go lower
14:22:39 SLO from @3150 goes market
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  #987 (permalink)
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bloom View Post
Hahahahahaha i like this stuff man))))
This is essential crazy free of all rules point of view and you god damhn right.

Thank you man!
And thank you for sharing your valuable knowledge and wisdom. I feel I am getting closer and closer to the mental state that's essential to be successful in this field.
I still need to invest lots of hard work and time to develop and improve my skills and gain the missing experience, but this is not wasted time.
By the time I have finished my journey I'll get the same kind of positive feedback from my trading account.

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  #988 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Russia
 
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adamov View Post
FESX 03-15
01/16/2015
1405-1426 (GMT+1)
Breakout

This kind of reactions you like to see while shorting the market.

14:06:11 SLO @3162
14:08:26 SLO goes to @3160
14:09:03 SLO goes marketable
14:11:34 new SLO @3156
14:11:51 SLO goes lower to @3155
14:11:56 SLO goes lower to @3154
14:12:00 SLO goes lower to @3153
14:12:23 SLO hit @3153
14:12:38 new SLO @3155
14:15:05 SLO is real @3155
14:19:09 new SLO @3152
14:20:44 BLO from @3145 goes to market / SLO @3051 holds
14:21:44 SLO-s go lower
14:21:50 SLO-s go lower
14:22:39 SLO from @3150 goes market
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Small tape moves not very fast and without stable pace.
It seems market about to concolidate 3150-3164
If you want to short or already short in such situation than pay attention to market on the sings of buyers steping in with force.
Remember this TRC and outcome it make. Good movements must be with fast tape
From 12:00 minute watch closer. 3154 or 3152 prices importanr. I think 3154 is more


Last edited by bloom; January 19th, 2015 at 02:23 AM.
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  #989 (permalink)
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trading without chart


bloom View Post
You even did not try it but already have opinion. Be grounded to NOW. This is the future you think about and do not know the future. May be you will like it so much that you will throw away all of the charts)))
And btw if you use charts use tick charts. 150 tick for fesx is a good one.

Well actually I was a little affraid of how I am gonna deal with a bunch of numbers running down my sreen.. I thought you must be like Dustin Hoffman from rain man or something like that to be able to follow it.



but after a little time your brain get used to it.
With a little practice I am gonna be like:
"all I see is: blonde, brunette, redhead..."



but seriously, it really hepls! your attention is not distracted by the past (chart) and you can focus to - what really matters - the present.


Last edited by adamov; January 19th, 2015 at 04:25 PM.
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  #990 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
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adamov View Post
Well actually I was a little affraid of how I am gonna deal with a bunch of numbers running down my sreen.. I thought you must be like Dustin Hoffman from rain man or something like that to be able to follow it.

but seriously, it really hepls! your mind is not distracted by the past (chart) and you can focut to - what really matters - the present.

Today is a MLK day. Markets not very active, but not Russian market ))))
If you please place here screenshot of the charts with your trades placed there

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