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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)
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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)

  #951 (permalink)
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adamov View Post
TRC001
FESX 01/09/2015
1223-1308
- low of the day
- break out
- high volume at the low stops the move
- heavy buying comes accompained with huge buy limit orders
- as soon as the strong buying and limits disappear instantly falls back a couple of ticks
its just a quick review, a more detailed study is coming in the weekend.
Not much but something we can start with.

Just from your quick rewiew)))
1) Low of the day - Ok this is what you and all of us see. This is a true fact
2) Break out - This is a true too. All of us see a breakout.
3) Heavy buying accompined with buy linit orders - Limit orders are ok. We all see those big buying limit orders. But as we do not see how they were printed we suggest this is a fake. But than transactions begins and we see this is a true buying and moreover they are do not try to keep in secret what they are doing.
But - where do you see at monotape buying? You do not see who buy and who sell. You see transactions. And transactions shows you - Heavy Buying and Selling is happening. Amount of buyers equall amount of sellers. So you cant say that onle one process is hapening.
4) high volume at the low stops the move. - You do not know this, so this is your opinion. As for me not the high volume stops the movement. Sometimes movements stops after high volume and sometimes it continiues further. So what stops or continue the movement?))))
So this is what we have:
1) Low of the day
2) Break out
3) Massive buying selling on steping down with stronger BID and Buy LO are true orders and buyers do not try to not to show the hands.
4) Massive transactions (buying selling) on steping up
5) Something that stops price and reverse move of the price. So what it is? )))


Last edited by bloom; January 10th, 2015 at 07:21 AM.
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  #952 (permalink)
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bloom View Post
Just from your quick rewiew)))
So this is what we have:
1) Low of the day
2) Break out
3) Massive buying selling on steping down with stronger BID and Buy LO are true orders and buyers do not try to not to show the hands.
4) Massive transactions buying selling (buying selling) on steping up

Watch FESX i say about it
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  #953 (permalink)
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You are right! Those were my assumptions based what I saw on the chart. This is not the mindset what I looking for.

so this is about what I saw in tape and DOM:

28:28 after the small breakout @3091 someone wants the market to look like strong bidding it @3089 but its fake. as soon as the first transaction hits the tape @89 he lowers his bid. He doesnt really want to buy, probably the opposite, get fill on the offer. I suppose he get it becouse at 29:27 his fake bid become offer
heading down, big print: 500@3088 and other big prints in the along the down movement
37:47 nice fill: 500@3080 & 732@3080
40:29 the offer @3080 looks fake (disappears as the price approaching) but nobody wants to hit it
43:57 Low of the day pretty big transactions at the low 504@3077 504@3076
46:58 High volume transaction @ 3077 /1750 BLO was filled immediately by 224,200,200,200,374,106 and a bunch of smaller orders
after that we touch 3076 two times but there is no real voulme (people are not interested there anymore)
42:17-49:54 trading high volume @3077-78 but price couldn’t go any lower (people in short position might getting a little uncomfortable)
49:55 perhaps the guy who was on the buying side accumulated the size he wanted or thinks he wont get any more from the market at that area become aggressive. (maybe start firing with market orders or just lifting the bid.)

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  #954 (permalink)
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adamov View Post
so this is about what I saw in tape and DOM:

28:28 after the small breakout @3091 someone wants the market to look like strong bidding it @3089 but its fake. as soon as the first transaction hits the tape @89 he lowers his bid. He doesnt really want to buy, probably the opposite, get fill on the offer. I suppose he get it becouse at 29:27 his fake bid become offer

You do not know exactly for what reasons somebody wants BID looks strong. Exist several reasons:
A) For public "Scarecrow" to manipulate them to get in desireable direction. To make a crowd work - move prices or provide liquidity.
Liquidity providing - 80% of time such things happens in a Scalping time: lunch, consolidation, flat
Price movement - Breakouts, reversals, steping down.

For what reasons in this situation "Scarecrow" apperas? What does it mean that pros are need to use it?
Think and answer than you ready

B) For big guys to lure them i call this "Pouch" (as they see big LO and they could use it to get in to position with small spread - they push price to those LO to get them - so they moving prices in wishfull direction for those who had place such large LO and exiting right before this large LO)
This more appliable for reverses, trend corrections, fake breakouts, stop trigering - you just need to lure big guys to make this happened.

Do this fake LO was a "Pouch"?
How to know this was a pouch?
Answer than you ready

C) For big guys to provide them a liqudity to get in or get out i call this "Dumping" (true large LO)
Usualy this means guys just want to cover all positions they took earlier and stay clear for some time.
Appliable for Breakouts and Reverses (they place large LO not far form reverse price and provide a chance for big guys who caught to cover)

Which situation most probably you see here in 28:28?


adamov View Post
heading down, big print: 500@3088 and other big prints in the along the down movement
37:47 nice fill: 500@3080 & 732@3080

3080 you see interest of big guys - big transactions.


adamov View Post
40:29 the offer @3080 looks fake (disappears as the price approaching) but nobody wants to hit it

This say you buyers do not want to take offers. No place for long.


adamov View Post
43:57 Low of the day pretty big transactions at the low 504@3077 504@3076
46:58 High volume transaction @ 3077 /1750 BLO was filled immediately by 224,200,200,200,374,106 and a bunch of smaller orders

As you saw, at 3077 were true large BLO. This was a "Dumping" - providing a tight spread liquidity to get in or get out. This means someone is geting out of short position while someone cover losses or (and) geting short. 80% this was not geting in short ))) Think why and answer than you ready )))


adamov View Post
after that we touch 3076 two times but there is no real volume (people are not interested there anymore)

What does it tells you (after all i described)? Who were making all large volume at the low and stops and why?


adamov View Post
42:17-49:54 trading high volume @3077-78 but price couldn’t go any lower (people in short position might getting a little uncomfortable)

Not only people who short. Buyers uncomfortable too. No more liquidity at BID. Empty.


adamov View Post
49:55 perhaps the guy who was on the buying side accumulated the size he wanted or thinks he wont get any more from the market at that area become aggressive. (maybe start firing with market orders or just lifting the bid.)

Yes they are but not for this reasons )))) Look. Do you see large transactions while price steping up? Yes. 49,50 and 51 minutes large transactions.Watch my screnns on FESX and you will see large sell LO 3079 and it were filled with bigger than earlier transactions. "Dumping" once again. Steping up and "Dumping" what does it tells you?)))

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  #955 (permalink)
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TRC002
FESX 03-15
01/12/2015
1555-1630

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  #956 (permalink)
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TRC003
FESX 03-15
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  #957 (permalink)
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thank you @bloom for your notes and questions!!
they are eye-opener for me. Tomorrow I'll try to answer them and examine TRC002/3 on the basis of the new informations.

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  #958 (permalink)
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adamov View Post
TRC003
FESX 03-15
01/12/2015
1630-1715

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1. Interesting moments
3055 Breakout from flat 3040-3055. Classic. Text book.
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2. From this point you understand what is it moving fast small tape. Large blocks with fast small tape. Good movement.
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3. Good continuation of the move. No place to short. Massive transactions on steping up
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As you see while price moves up BID looks weak and ofer strong. And actually you see those large sell LO are true as trancastions show you this.
So why do somebody shows us they's hands? Why do not to sell using iceberg order?
maybe this is a "Dumping"?

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  #959 (permalink)
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bloom View Post
4) high volume at the low stops the move. - You do not know this, so this is your opinion. As for me not the high volume stops the movement. Sometimes movements stops after high volume and sometimes it continiues further. So what stops or continue the movement?))))

..

5) Something that stops price and reverse move of the price. So what it is? )))

To answer this question we must go back to the basics.

Since the overhelming majority of trades in futures markets are speculative and not for hedging the underlying instrument to reduce risk, positions are not held forever.
Sooner or later they must be liquidated either profit or loss. To liquidate a long position we must sell it and a short position must be bought back.
Understanding this helps us to answer the original question.

For the sake of simplicity lets talk about longs only, of course same rule applies for shorts.
The main question is: How can a price advance?
In case of imbalance: the demand is greater than the supply at that particular price level.

Where does the demand (buy side) come from?
  • People want to get in: hoping the price will advance further and will be able to sell it at higher price
  • and / or people want to get out (covering their shorts): worried about the price will advance futher so want limit their losses or realize profit
Where does the supply (sell side) come from?
  • from the people who want to come in (expecting a reversal and falling prices)
  • and / or people who are in (long) position already and want to get out to realize profit or not to lose more
Assuming an uptrending market with high volume at the top the scenarios are the following:
High volume means: lot of buyer and the same amount of seller (since every transaction has both side)
  1. new buyers comes in (opening position) – new sellers comes in (opening position)
  2. new buyers comes in (opening position) – the sellers are the earlier longs realizing profit (closing position)
  3. the buyers are earlier shorts covering their losses (closing position) – new sellers comes in (opening position)
  4. the buyers are earlier shorts covering their losses (closing position) - the sellers are the earlier longs realizing profit (closing position)
case 1: The stronger side is going to win and as soon the loosers start to cover it will fuel even more the movement either up or downside.
case 2: The buyers are the suckers, the latecomers. even if the price rose higher the sellers' cover wouldn’t fuel the movement because they had done already. In this case there is no room for upward movement the more for falling prices.
case 3: Depends on the strength of selling. Since there is no real (intentional) buying but the selling is real there is a good chance to falling prices. BUT if the new sellers cannot absorb all the short covering buying they easily can get to the wrong side of the market
case 4: Sellers lost the money, buyers won it. No open positions: the new balance, price wont go anywhere.

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  #960 (permalink)
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adamov View Post
To answer this question we must go back to the basics.[*] new buyers comes in (opening position) – new sellers comes in (opening position)[*] new buyers comes in (opening position) – the sellers are the earlier longs realizing profit (closing position)[*] the buyers are earlier shorts covering their losses (closing position) – new sellers comes in (opening position)[*] the buyers are earlier shorts covering their losses (closing position) - the sellers are the earlier longs realizing profit

All of this situations could move price very far in some cases and in some cases price is not going anywhere. Positions may be opened-closed in a balance and in a disbalance too. But 80% of time pros prefered to open in flat and close on good move as they have hot public filling orders very fast - but this is no rule. In todays market it is a problem to get in in flat.


adamov View Post
case 1: The stronger side is going to win and as soon the loosers start to cover it will fuel even more the movement either up or downside.
case 2: The buyers are the suckers, the latecomers. even if the price rose higher the sellers' cover wouldn’t fuel the movement because they had done already. In this case there is no room for upward movement the more for falling prices.
case 3: Depends on the strength of selling. Since there is no real (intentional) buying but the selling is real there is a good chance to falling prices. BUT if the new sellers cannot absorb all the short covering buying they easily can get to the wrong side of the market
case 4: Sellers lost the money, buyers won it. No open positions: the new balance, price wont go anywhere.

1. Losing side start to cover and moving prices. Ok it is so - but it must be disbalance between MO of losers and LO of winners. But - Why do losing side start to cover? What determines that it will be a disbalance between MO and LO?
2. Late buyers come in and price do not going further. But why sellers (who buy earlier) decide to get out in this place? Why do in this place appears balance between MO of later buyers and LO of sellers?
3. Everything right. But once again - What determines what will happened? Why in some cases in such situations buyers would buy all of the sells and in another would not?
4. Sellers lost - buyers won. Sometimes it moves prices and sometimes not ))) This is from my practice.
All you mentioned right only 50% )))) This is why this work in 50% of cases. But something behind all of this stuff you mentioned exist 100% of time, unite all of this situations and determines waht will be ))))
What it is?
Ask Pete - Pete what you will do if you see large print at BID? Pete will answer - Depends on what this actuall MO will do. If it brake down i will be looking for short. If BID holds i will be looking for long. So what Pete does and every pros does the same thing? ))))

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