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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)
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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)

  #871 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Reason for entry:

Downtrend, pullback to POC and Median, volume spike (at ask) at the pullback



00:40 - look how 1526.75 gets broken, only 100 trade at 1527.00 and then someone sells into 1526.75 bid, it takes only 250 to make price tick down. This tells me that there is no one on the bid side to support all the buying we've seen up to this point.

00:57 - same stuff, only 750 trade at 1526.50 and when price ticks down to 1526.25 3000 bid there turns to 1300. No one holds the bids.

1:32 - again price ticks up to 1527.00 only 11 trade there and then 1526.75 bid is absorbed with 300 traded at it.

1:30 - 2:30 - Not quite sure why 126.75 bid holds - to attract more buyers? This would make sence - people see, that bid holds and start to buy, i sit on the offer and close my position for 1 tick gain capturing the spread and potentially attracting even more buyers to whom i sell at higher lvls to reverse market to the downside.

2:30 - 2:40 again look how there is no demand when price ticks down through 1527.00 and 1526.75

2:40 - 5:00 - price falls down to 1526.00. Notice when it ticks down - each time offer above the BBO firms up and best bid leaves.

5:00 - 5:40 when price trades against 1526.25 offer it doesn't leave, but at 5:40 when price ticks up 1526.50 offer is gone and 1526.75 as well, I have no idea why.

Honestly, i would've probably skipped the trade here. Cos i don't see any clear reversals even after watching the recording. There is much more buying than selling overall, but still price moves down. I have an impression that no one wants to hold bids for some reason. May be smart money anticipated todays sell off and stayed away from providing buy side liquidity?

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  #872 (permalink)
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ES 21 Feb 2013

Hello guys, these are my trades from yesterday.

1 loss trade because of early entry, sorry no video as i din't record it yesterday. I will do my best today!

Thanks!

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Last edited by snusnufreak; February 22nd, 2013 at 02:32 AM.
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  #873 (permalink)
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ES 22 Feb 2013


Hello, here are today's entries - many possibilities but i took only 3, all good so far.

Notice how price consolidates, but cumulative delta drops, also look at the bottom indi - there is much more selling going on while price swings back and forth. Notice how selling is done at the upper border of this price congestion (Look at the volumes indi and compare its readings to price) Could Smarts be selling here? Small hints, but dunno for sure, we will see only at the very moment if lower border breaks.

I will do video research on the weekend!

Cheers!

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  #874 (permalink)
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order flow

Hi snusnufreak!
A huge staff here.
Here by I send my trade.

ES 06 02 13 replay - YouTube

It was done on demo, in spite of info from bloom, that flow its better to watch during actual session but not during reply.
Any way, here we are.
Anybody tried to enter at the area?

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  #875 (permalink)
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bisecom View Post
Hi snusnufreak!
A huge staff here.
Here by I send my trade.

ES 06 02 13 replay - YouTube

It was done on demo, in spite of info from bloom, that flow its better to watch during actual session but not during reply.
Any way, here we are.
Anybody tried to enter at the area?

Hi, bisecom! nice that you joined in! Sorry, i don't really remember what i did on 6th of feb, please do current trades. Will be interesting to see how different people react to same market enviroment.

Here are my trades for today - 2 winners, 1 looser and missed a good opportunity to go short cos was waiting on limit side instead of selling with market. Look how thewave of buying at that area deteriorated and turned into wave of selling if we look at the volume. While I'm posting this message there was another good entry off the 1518.25 area both price action wise and DOM/Tape wise. But I already stopped my recording so don't have it captured.

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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)-es-25.02.2013.jpg  

Last edited by snusnufreak; February 25th, 2013 at 11:22 AM.
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  #876 (permalink)
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ES - loss

Here's my loosing entry, dunno why I took it. Looking back this trade makes no sence - only logical thing here i see is that price touched POC and tried to reverse off it. Everything else - Order flow, Cumulative Delta, Price Action favored longs.

Yet here it is. Even worth I didn't bail as soon as saw price develop against me but rather waited for the SL.



After reviewing the video several times I have no explanation on why i entered short at 1520.75

Up untill 2:30 mark I see bids leave and offers above BBO stack. Notice how little trade on the bids as price falls downfrom 1522 to 1520.50. This is probably where ones judgement could've been wrong.

Even if shorted here, exit should've been at 1521.25 around 2:54 mark, moreover (according to context - PA. volume, CD e.t.c.) this is a spot to go LONG!

Look more carefuly how price behaves between 2:30 and 3:00

1. Price touches 1520.50 only 95 total trade there.
2. Buyer eats up 1520.75 offer relatively quickly - 1190 trade there.
3. As price ticks up 1521.00 offer leaves (2143 >> 815)
4. 1520.75 bid holds - big print appears in tape.
5. 1521.00 offer gets eaten only by 517 contracts - fake offer leaves from there as well.
6. Right after that 1521.25 offer leaves (2137 >> 661)
7. 1520.75 and 1520.50 bids firm up. 1521.50 and 1521.75 offers leave - GO LONG! OR exit retarded short =)

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  #877 (permalink)
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ES - reversal

This one is for educational purposes!

Lets see how price and order flow behave themselves at the reversal points.

I did try to enter after the reversal when price broke POC but didnt get filled. I already mentioned this.

First of all, look at the picture:

Price barely breaks EU high. Draws some sort of H&S pattern there and reverses.

Look at the volume - when price approcahes the lvl its high - a lot of trades go at ask, people buy with market orders hoping for breakout. Others, who shorted earlier close out their trades with market buys as well.

Smart Money at this very time use limit offers to close their previous buys and partially enter shorts.

OK, smarts exited. Now they want to drive price lower - what will they do? They will accumulate position and manipulate DOM to lure in buyers who want to buy uptrend. Later on Smarts will use stops of those buyers to fuel the move down. Smarts don't want you to see that they're accumulating, so they do it on relatively small volume.

One thing i like momentum bars for - is that here you can see how accumulation is being performed usually in 2 tick range at BBO, since ES is very liquid.

Now lets look at the video in this area and see what we can derive from there.

Here it is for now pure (with no commentary), I will try to do analysis in the next post tomorrow, cos right now i want to go home =)!



Cheers!

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  #878 (permalink)
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ES reversal

Hello, guys!

This is a description of a video in previous post. Here I will try to see some hints that will try to help me identify reversals and DOM maniputlation at these points.

00:00 - 00:20 Notice how offer leaves as price moves up - compare current trades field to offers themselves.
00:27 - look what happens when price ticks down, inside bid leaves @ 1522.50 while 1523.00 and 1523.25 offers firm up.

Then we see opposite thing - 1522.25 and 1522.50 bids firm up and price starts to move up, at the same time offers leave (755 - 826 - 1791 - trade at levels where there were on average 1800 contracts) at the same time bids follow the price and as it mpves up, big bids move up as well.

00:55 - 1:18 price ticks down from EU high at 1523.50 towards 1523.00 Here one can see how those big bids which were right under the BBO leave as priceticks down, while offers firm, then there is iceberg at 1523 lvl itself. Probably smarts are luring in sellers to run their stops later and use them as exits.

This rotation of limits on bid and ask happens several times as we move up to 1524.50 (watch until aprox. 6:30) - basicaly Smart Money make pullbacks look like they are reversals by stacking offers and pulling bids, they also use icebergs on bids to absorb all the selling.

Also notice fast sells right at the top: when price ticks up - whatever becomes bid is being absorbed by heavy fast selling. 5:30 - 5:50 - 1524.00 bid.
Same stuff: 5:50 - 6:00 - 1524.25 bid.

This looks weird and I have hard time explaining it.

Watching video up untill 6:30 gives pretty much an idea why 1524.25 and 1524.50 was a place where price reversed.

Next part of the video I will cover later on.

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  #879 (permalink)
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snusnufreak View Post
Hello, guys!

Here are my entries for today.

Again, good winners, but small since i put SL to BE asap. This tells me that phsychologically I'm still not ready to go live.

Another thing that tells me so is following:

My average loosers greater than my winners (look at two marked spots for my loosers). I can't yet fully control my emotions, cos second loosing trade was made with no analysis whatsoever. It's one of those "Bi..ch, I'm gonna get you!" trades.

Of course, first short was retarded as well - look at the chart (specifically at the volume) - no selling whatsoever, plus there is a big green (buying) spike right at the end of that mini-pullback which should've told me to buy (considering trend was to the upside)

Also look at the second chart - my resoning for longs today, eventually i didn't follow my analysis and pass of least resistance and got beaten for lack of discipline and for using emotions.

Don't beat yourself up about this. With this cycle of trade and review, you are able to see the issues, acknowledge them and rectify them.

In terms of moving stop to BE - that's a tricky topic because there is nothing wrong with getting out when a trade moves your way and then comes back.

What I do is this...

- scale out 40% of the position at 4 ticks
- if it reaches 4 ticks, I put the stop to b/e whilst I wait for a fill
- if I get filled, I then loosen the stop up a bit because now the break even point for the whole trade is in above my entry

I do this because a good entry should make 5-6 ticks fairly quickly, if it struggles to get to 4 and doesn't print much there (not enough for a fill), then I am thinking my entry isn't so good.

Also - when it comes back up to my stop, I tend to move the actual stop 1 tick above. So if my stop is 1450 on a long, I move the actual stop order to 1450.25. Then I watch the offer depth at 1450 If offer depth is in the 1000's at 1450, then I will let it play. If I see a lot of trades hitting into 1450 or I see them pull out of the way - say to 4 or 500, then I flatten and usually get the exit filled @ 1450. Sometimes I don't & it slips a tick.

Be a bit careful about doing this on the Ninja DOM though because they have a 'feature' that will often see you end up with a long position in the above scenario when the stop triggers and your flatten command both send buy orders.

There is no right & wrong here with this stuff. My way isn't best, it just suits me. I want to manage the first target very closely and once I get that, I relax a little.

At the end of the day, it's very hard to get a 10 point winner with a 4 tick stop, so you have to be realistic about this stuff.

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  #880 (permalink)
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snusnufreak View Post
Hi, bisecom! nice that you joined in! Sorry, i don't really remember what i did on 6th of feb, please do current trades. Will be interesting to see how different people react to same market enviroment.

Here are my trades for today - 2 winners, 1 looser and missed a good opportunity to go short cos was waiting on limit side instead of selling with market. Look how thewave of buying at that area deteriorated and turned into wave of selling if we look at the volume. While I'm posting this message there was another good entry off the 1518.25 area both price action wise and DOM/Tape wise. But I already stopped my recording so don't have it captured.

Hi snusnufreak, thanks for your message.
Yes, you are right, I will try next trades on more fresh market!

I re watched the video and found out it is not so informatics. Because not all arguments could be seen at it.
As I found an action, I opened a soft to record the screen and recorded the trade.
But it would be more interesting to see at the arguments..
Its better to record more timer and then cut off not interesting periods.

As for your trades, you use cumulative delta. How do you us it before to take a trade?

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