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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)
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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)

  #861 (permalink)
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ES 14 feb 2013

Hello, guys!

My entries for today - 3 scalps and 2 missed opportunities.

Will try cover long entries and missed opportunities also will analize a good spot to exit after first long entry.

Thanks!

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  #862 (permalink)
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I accidentaly deleted my recorded file, so won't be posting any videos for today, sorry!

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snusnufreak View Post
I accidentaly deleted my recorded file, so won't be posting any videos for today, sorry!

snu, thank you for all of your work, and thanks to Bloom, Dion, and the others who have contributed to this thread. Very informative.

May I ask what you use as your screen recorder? I tried BSR but was wondering if there was something better.

Thanks

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Tap In View Post
snu, thank you for all of your work, and thanks to Bloom, Dion, and the others who have contributed to this thread. Very informative.

May I ask what you use as your screen recorder? I tried BSR but was wondering if there was something better.

Thanks

Hi, I use BB Flashback, I'm very satisfied with it!

Join in!

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  #865 (permalink)
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ES on Friday

Hello, guys!

These are my entries on friday - 5 scalps, one looser with 4 ticks stop.
And again for winners I get out to early.
I still didn't learn how to bail if something goes against me. Will try to analize my mistake in this post.

Here's the part with my loosing entry when i went short.



I entered around first min of the video against 1519.75 to the downside, because it was holding firm. so i expected continuation of downmove. Look how many contracts where bought against the lvl during the first minute of the video. Then we see 2300 trade against 1519.50 bid - this alone was supposed to make me suspicious. If taht many contracts trade against the level, there is a buyer sitting there who wants to buy.

1:00 - 2:20 - 151950 bid holds again with 2800 traded against it and 4500 trade against 1519.75 offer - looks like someone wants to buy at this BBO (look at big prints in tape), but someone big is selling as well at 1519.75 offer. Two big guys batling it out.

2:20 - 3:50 BBO shifts to 1519.25/1519.50 Bid/Offer, but look at the bid - its ~3000 and won't leave, clearly identifying a big buyer. Look at the tape - green, look at the 1519.25 bid - barely anyone wants to sell against it. Orderflow has clearly reversed to the upside!

This is a place to bail if went short and a good spot to reverse long (overall trend is UP!!!), but i was to carried away by the position itself rather than by managing it properly and watching the order flow.

4:00 - 6:40 - sellers regain power, but are held at lower bids around 1519.75 lvl, and then around 6:33 someone buys out 1520.00 lvl - after all we'v seen prior to this, this indicates that big uyer at these levels has won, and its time to bail fast - exiting at 1520.25 for a 2 tick loss. second chance to exit with small loss is blown away. Look how people are worked - big prints in tape, this is big money exiting their qucik long scalps against stop losses of people like me.

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  #866 (permalink)
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ES long entry

Here's long entry aprox 20 minutes after US open.

Here I've enterd a bit late - instead of going long around 1519.00 a went in at 1519.75

Regarding te exit - it was good, right at the spot where pullback to the POC began, but it was pure luck not the orderflow reading.

In this video I will analize where was a good early entry and where I'should've bailded if looked at order flow.



~00:30 mark - big selling pressure, but bids hold, 1000 lot gets traded against 1519.00, when tis level becomes ofer it is quickly bought out. 00:38 - sellers unable to print sells at 1518.75 Look how offer builds at 1519.50 - one level above inside offer, looks like smart money hold off early buys so price doesn't start unwinding to early - they need to build up position.

1:00 - 1:40

Smart money hold the 1518.75 bid with iceberg, have big offers at 1519.25 and 1519.50 so people will front run them at inside offer 1519.00 and buy into frontrunners occasionaly with 50 100 or 150 contracts (seen in tape). At 1:41 when 1519.00 is bought, look at higher offers - they leave, this tells me the're fake.

1:40 - 2:30

1518.75 bid holds, left tape is mostly red, effort with no result, then around 2:30 mark 1519.00 offer is bough out.


2:30 - 3:40 situation repeats: offers at 1519.50 and 151975 are firm, big guy is sitting on 1519.00 bid and slowly buying whatever is offered at 1519.25 by 50-100 lot chunks. At 3:40 when lvl gets bought and price ticks up, look how quickly all that offer leaves. and notice how inside bid increases. This is a spot to go long and buy against 1519.25 - 1519.50 offer. Tape starts off at this same moment as well - a lot of fast and green prints appear.

Another spot worth noting is 4:50 mark and after -look how bids leave, price falls down 2 ticks to 1519.50 and then activity dries up ahead of 9:55 am Consumer Sentiment News. Look at ~6.40 - 7:30 marks and +/- 3 lvls from BBO - liquidity is gone ahead of news release. And after the announcement it slowly comes back in appearing on those lvls.

8:00 - 9:00 - healthy DOM uptrend, exits are seend at 1520.25 and 1520.50 lvls - a lot of buys trade there - smart money exit.

Look at the way DOM behaves here: Smart money exit against retail stops with their offers and against retail limit buyers with their fast market sells.

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  #867 (permalink)
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ES 19 Feb 2013

Hello, guys!

Here are my entries for today.

Again, good winners, but small since i put SL to BE asap. This tells me that phsychologically I'm still not ready to go live.

Another thing that tells me so is following:

My average loosers greater than my winners (look at two marked spots for my loosers). I can't yet fully control my emotions, cos second loosing trade was made with no analysis whatsoever. It's one of those "Bi..ch, I'm gonna get you!" trades.

Of course, first short was retarded as well - look at the chart (specifically at the volume) - no selling whatsoever, plus there is a big green (buying) spike right at the end of that mini-pullback which should've told me to buy (considering trend was to the upside)

Also look at the second chart - my resoning for longs today, eventually i didn't follow my analysis and pass of least resistance and got beaten for lack of discipline and for using emotions.

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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)-es-03-13-5-min-19_02_2013.jpg   Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)-es-03-13-19.02.2013-entries.jpg  
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  #868 (permalink)
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ES shorts instead of longs

Here's the part where I made two bad decisions.



First of all, look close around 1:00 mark - when 1520.25 offer gets eaten super-fast, how the fake offer above at 1520.50 leaves. But i didn't pay attention to this, as was anticipating shorts off the curent level
Later on - look how much is bought at 1520.50 lvl (right most field) - some one is buying here definately. I didn't pay attention to that either. My mind was adjusted to look for shorts.

2:40 mark - look at the amount of buying at 1520.75 and 1521, here i thought "man, someone is surely holding these levels"
From 2:40 to 3:20 I notice that each time price ticks up to 1521,25 - very little contracts trade there and at the same time someone is selling fast into whatever sits at 1521.00

So i go ahead and sell right at the 3:50 mark when i see big sell market appear in the tape.
What I don't pay attention to is the amount of buying that still continues at the 1520.50 lvl - up to 4:20 mark 3000 trade there with total buys over 17K

Also at 4:21, after 1520.50 has been broken - look how little trades at 1520.75 (only 238) and price ticks up - offer left from here, this means it was fake.

Also notice how theree is no selling whatsoever during this time - up untill 5:20 there are mostly buys and around 3000 trade at 1520.75. I probably should've been bailing out of my shorts somwhere around here. Also notice how offer leaves from 1521 as well as price ticks up. it turns from 3000 to roughly 1300 instantly andd off we go to the upside.

Look how bids firm up as we go up (best seen during 5:30 - 6:00) Both tapes are mostly green and with good speed - longs are screaming, while i'm sitting in a short, paying to DOM/tape no attention whatsoever. Rather watching my loosing trade, hoping and praying that price will reverse - DUMBASS!

7:00 - 7:30 these are clearly stops of retards like me and also market buys of breakout traders, look how much trades agains 1521,75 - 1522,50 - this is where smart money exit while the rest of us are buying the breakout.

7:30 - 7:50 look how price stops at 1522.25/1522.50 BBO smart money exit their position on 1522.50 ask while holding market from falling down as new sellers come in with an iceberg on inside bid. These sellers will be worked as well when price will go further up on their stops. That is exactly what happens around the 8 minute mark.

8:00 - 9:00 situation described in previous paragraph repeats itself once again. Dumb me shorts here again, angry cos of previous loss. What I don't get here is that as long as i short against the move, the move will continue on my stops!

Which it ofcourse does (9:00 - 9:20) and i'm stoped out again.


At the end of the video there's finally a stop of the move with more than 8000 traded on ask at 1524.50, look when price ticks up how they sell against the bids very fast!

================================================================================

Resume:

1. Playing against nice fast move is always a bad thing, when I do so I help to fuel the move with my stop.
2. Smart Money when accumulate position hold the price from popping to early with limit orders (check out the first part of the video more closely again 3:00 - 7:00 marks)
3. Emotions, emotions... have to learn to controll them.
4. Have to learn to manage my trades once in position, instead of just sitting out through them.

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https://futures.io/elite-circle/3383-upcoming-webinars-training-education-47.html

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The webinar will focus on Order Flow.

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ES 20 Feb 2013


Greetings, guys!

Didn't trade today cos of work. Did recording, so far see three good possibilities to make decisions at

See attached pic. Will cover first two as my recording doesn't go as far as the third one.

Cheers!

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