This one is calssic in terms of price and volume action - look at the picture.
Also notice how swing sizes correlate, previous swing was 10 ticks, this one is 11.
Look how 1507.75 offer holds, and bids below BBO leave at the beginning of the video. and then aroun 0:20 we see sellers come in, look how they try to defend the 1507.75 lvl later in the video (0:30 - 0:55) Also look how offers build up at higher prices - probably to attract more sellers.
1:00 - 1:10 price ticks up and those who sold at 1507.75 and lower are being worked - look in tape (a lot of green relatively small prints - these are stops) Also, look how 1508.25 ask is traded - similar to what i described in previous video. Then around 1:27 strong seller comes in and off we go - this is a spot to go short.
Ofcourse, this is after the fact, Cos I would've probably entered the first time around 1507.50 price and would've been stopped out as well.
Great work !!!
but i can't understand the print 01:017 -1:208.25 goes bid 2012 contracts other 260 traded in the offer = 2072 Total and 8:25 stays offer
Are few weeks i still trying to read the DOM so corrections are really appreciated.
00:01-00:14 someone bot 2700 contracts @ 7.75 but it stays offer ( the inside bid doesn't go to 7.75)
00:19 1080 in one print in the bid
00:20 .75 goes to .50 and keeps printing in the bid so 75 and 50 doesn't go bid
00:21 7 even stays bid
00:21 7.25 someone bot 432 contacts in the offer
But 7.25 stays bid 7 even goes to 7.25
00:25 7.25 people are selling in to the bid and stay bid (inside offer doesn't touch 7.25)
00:27- 00:36 they print 459 in the offer and 7:50 goes bid keep selling in to 7.50 but small 87 99
00:36 no ones wants to touch 7.25 no prints there and there is a lift in the offers column
he sell 353 410 @ 7.50 and keeps buying 7.75 but 7.75 stays bid
00:36 - 00:55 people keep selling in to 7.50 but 7.50 doesn't go offer 435 485 685 691 people keep selling
00:57 he bot 715 contracts @ 7.75 and 7:75 doens't go offer so 7.75 goes bid
1:05 they kkep selling in to the bid 43 44 @ 7:75 and he buys 8 even he print 894 @ 8 even
1:09 8 even print small but 8 even we have 894 in the offer and it went bid now
1:09 -1:16 someone buys 8.25 they keep printing in to the offer
1:17 8:25 goes bit prints 2012 ? but @ 8.50 trades 55 62 71 92 last print no ones wants to buy 8.50
1:21 8.25 goes offer 2012 contacts traded there which is the meaning ? it went bid with 2012 contracts
1:26 8.25 stays offer and they print 260
1:28 1341 contacts traded in the bid and it goes offer
1:28- 1:54 @ 8 even 140 158 162 181 in the offer stays offer 8 even
2:02 offer refresh @ 8 even 289 342 345 501people keep buying in to the offer but 1508.00 stays offer
2:07-2:11 they sell in the bid @ 7.75
Tom, greetings! Thanks for joining in! Read the link in my post, and you'll at least get the feel of what I think is going on this example. Also do not try to anaize every bit of information - no need to do so, just try to read the flow and pick out useful information from it. Good thing would be to review the video several times paying attention only to the tape then only to the DOM. You know that this was a reversal, now you have'to learn how tape and DOM behave during reversals.
The following user says Thank You to snusnufreak for this post:
Here's the one I entered too early, that is why i sat through it and decided to close breakeven when saw an opportunity without really analizing the market. My attention shifted away from the market to the particular trade and how it was developing. My mistake, i acknowledge it and will try to avoid it in future.
By looking solely at the picture I can tell that the spot was right: uptrend, demand area represented by POC and median close together, but as you see from the volumes - there wasn't any real buying taking place at the time I entered, it strated much later and place to enter should've been somewhere near the second green arrow. look how volumes increase right after that point - this is real buying and something I have to learn to quickly react to.
Let's look at the video around this spot and see what setups where there and how price behaved there.
Here battle takes place around 1512.75 lvl, look how much bought there (the most right column shows ~15K traded on ask there in total until i hit erase button)
Each time price ticks up to 15130 - offer leaves from there, this tells me that this is fake offer which sits above current price to make it go back and forth while someone accumulating position.
Also notice when things start really unfolding, all that offer leaves (2:20 mark) and bids firm up (2:26 mark) This is a right spot to place a bet - either hitting 1513.25 of bidding 1513
3:00 mark - 1513.75-1513.25 offer firms up again big money want people to sell into their limits, and they do it - 2293 trade against 1512.75 bid.
Look at offers right at 2:58 mark - they're GONE! (1600 on average)
Look at bids:
1512.50 -- 2346
1512.25 -- 2593
1512.00 -- 3329
Look at the same place at 3:10 - offers are back, bids are gone, but stay relatively large at 1511.75 - 1512.25 (Someone really wants to buy there???)
Look what happens at 1512.50 bid, each time price ticks down through it - very little trades go off at 1512.25 but 1512.50 offer is bought very fast. Offers above BBO stay firm, Bids below BBO are weird - there is a "spike" at 1512.00 - may be just in case sellers push it there, big money will add more to their position even at better prices.
Look how after 5:00 mark all that offer leaves as price ticks up:
Only 507 trade at 1512.75 when ~2000 was sitting there
Only 694 trade at 1513.00 when ~2000 was sitting there
Only 767 trade at 1513.25 when ~2000 was sitting there
at the same time as price ticks up, look at bids - how quickly values there rise to around 1500-1800.
Entering somewhere here (after 5:00 mark) would be a good spot as well.
Last edited by snusnufreak; February 12th, 2013 at 11:48 AM.
I entered at 1515.25 around 1:00 mark of the video, and I have no idea what the hell for. I didn't look much into the dom/tape more onto the graph anticipating the breakout. My mistake here is that i anticipate instead of reacting.
First of all, there was a lot of selling in the beginning of the video right off the highs, but i thought since someone sells alot, someone holds the bids, thus someone is willing to hold the price up and make a breakout.
What i didn't notice happened around 0:55 mark - look how price reacts to 1515.75 lvl. Only 6 end up trading there, then later up until aprox 1:30 1515.50 and 1515.25 get sold. Level is clearly rejected.
Then up until the end of the video there is no real buying coming in, even if i did enter, i should've been bailing when 1515 got broken, cos at first it looked like someone holds it. (2:30 - 2:50) for a 2 tick loss
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In my own words i would have said there was aggressive fighting at high volumes to see. Big money flipping the auction around and around. I suggest that there might be some change in market direction because now suddenly the press and rating agencies are so positive. They maybe need finally some latecomers to jump the bull train so they can offload the long inventory built up last months shouting for firefighters.
This process might be what could be seen also in the orderflow.
Edit: Was a comment to the deleted video of DionisusToast. I found that video helpful and educative on the current market.
Last edited by CFuture; February 14th, 2013 at 11:52 AM.