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Here's the entries i made which did go against me, however I wated untill they gave me a profit and basically scaled in three times trying to catch a reversal.
My resoning: Its a local support lvl, plus i see following (first 15 sec of the video)
1. Big prints in tape on bid
2. 1497.00 bid breaks, price ticks down, only 59 trade at 1496.75
3. 1497.00 becomes offer and is quickly bought, price ticks up i place limit at 1497.00 bid and get filled as a lot of selling starts printing against it.
What i didn't mention is that there was no buying whatsoever to trigger off the move up - tape was mostly red, no one wanted to hit 1497.25 offer and towards 00:40 higher offers started to build up. This is my mistake.
True scalper would've bailed at 1496.75 as soon as 1497.00 got broken for a 1 tick loss, but i'm still slow, so i decided to wait and see what happens next.
BTW next entries are there to improve my overall position - wrong again. I gotta react instead of hoping for bailing at BE or at small profit with no reason whatsoever.
Second entry happened around 2:00 mark
My resoning:
1. 1496.50 holds, looks like there is iceberg there
2. I start seeing a lot of buying against 1496.75 - around 3000 trade there. Tape gets green
3. I put 1496.50 limi and get filled.
Again price manages to tick up, and starts to jump back and forth, buying dries up, tape turns red again. From 3:00 - no interest in buying whatsoever again, this is a spot to get out for 1 tick loss at 1496.25, I even had a chance to get out at BE, when price broke 1496.50 once again, but i didn't - hardest thing to admit that I'm wrong.
4:00 - 5:00 selling pressure increases and we go lower. I'm stuck in a loosing trade.
Third entry happens after 5:00 mark - similar situation DOM-wise to the second one, - big limits on bids, than fast buying. Big lots appear in tape, I'm allready all into managing the position and not analizing order flow, trying to better it out by adding more even lower.
Fortunately enough, 10 mins later when price finally does reverse of 1495.75 lvl (median) I do get out with overall one tick profit.
Overall impression:
1. I sit out loosing trades - wrong!
2. I'm sitting in loosing trade much more than in winnig - cutting my profits, letting my loosers run - wrong!
3. I should react, not hope that price will go in my favor!
4. I should learn to accept my losses.
Phsychology.... most difficult part about trading.
Now I will cover my trades from friday. I didn't figure out how to attach flvs or mp4s cos my recorder has troubles with these formats - quality is horrinle. So will continue to do youtube videos
First one happened right after market open an was pure scalp trade, i aimed for 4 ticks but got closed out at +2 when my limit didn't get filled and trade got closed by market order.
The trade here goes around 1502.50 area.
00:17 look how quickly price behaves around 1502.25 lvl - no trades go off at 1502.00 (price doesn't tick down) but I still se buys refresh against 1502.25 ask lvls - 278 print there.
Later around 00:30 i see 1502.25 get broken big print goes there at bid, but price reverses up super fast - then it holds, and i go long against 1502.50 with market when i see that green prints start to go off there in the tape. My target was 1503.50 but didn't get filled there so exited with market order against 1503.00
This one is also long, price was approaching current day's median and also the 1500 lvl. it stalled around 1500.50 - 1501.00 zone and stumbled there for a while, smart money where accumulating position and then ran stops of local sellers, prety much thi is what happens all the time on ES when we see those small consolidations, which are best seen using momentum bars.
If you look at bigger tape (right one) you can see big prints there on bids - looks like holding of local area. Unfortunately, i didn't include this part into the video.
Look how much buying goes against 1500.75 each time pric drops to 1500.50 bid tape turns from red to green and starts to accelelrate upwards - a good spot to go long is to hit 1501.25 when you see that action in tape (1:00 - 1:40 in video).
Also notice how in the very beginning of the video offers are being pulled from higher lvls. Watch them close throughout the video - there is constant pulling and stacking of offers above the price. Algos are working its for sure. But what the heck are they doing and why? No idea - lol. The more i stare into dom/tape, the more i think its more about feeling and reacting at right place and time than trying to identify the particular setup. There are no setups - pure flow of orders. If it goes up you go with it, and vice versa.
from 2:00 forward - look how 1501.00 lvl holds, price ticks down to 1500.75, only 6 contracts trade there and then two upper lvls get bought out quickly - no one wants to sell there anymore and price goes up.
This is a place to go long if you didn;'t do it earlier.
First 30 seconds of video or so - notice how price chops around 1500.75 and 1500.50 lvl going up and down one tick, but whenever it ticks down inside bid doesnt leave and stays at relatively high lvls unlike inside offer, which leaves each time price upticks.
1:00 - bid leaves, offer stacked and price pushes down - breakout traders are lured in. Look how much more trade at 1500.25 and 1500.50 compared to higher lvls, but price doesnt move any further south. this looks like shakeout. Effort with no result. Tapes goes from super fast and red to choppy and occasional fast green chunks. There is not much selling in big tape, suggesting that selling is done primarily by retailers as seen in small (left) tape. Depending on your speed an reaction - entry here was anywhere between 1500.50 - 1501.25
The one I want to cover is the one i missed, i was hesitating too long and didn't hit the button, but it was an obvious low risk trade.
Look at the pic - double bottom, big red prints right at the low, then big buy appears after those sells. Also notice the delta divergence between the two lows. There where plenty of spots to go long, but i didn't and eventualy found myself entering the breakout trade at 1501, but gladly scaled out when saw that it wasn't developing - i didn't see stops which would help fuel the move.
Look at the big tape - 1500, 1499.75 and 1499.50 lvls - how much sold there, then take a look at 00:34 - stuff repeats. This looks like someone big is seeling, and they don't care about the price, they just need to sell this many contracts around the 1500 price level. This is a good hint that in longer term there is a possibility of trend shifting to downside. Around 1:10 same thing happens again
1:10 - 1:30 look how 1498.00 bid holds, and then buying starts against 1498.25 offer - long here, given all other conditions, right after this there is another push to downside but it gets bough out very quickly (1:50 - 2:00)
Look at the tape after 2:00 mark - green and a lot of small orders (left tape) - retail stops, this is a place to long.
I didn't trade yesterday, but made a recording and now willing to cover interesting spots.
First place of potential trade i marked on the chart - this was a supply zone near a local level 1510 (if you look at higher TF's you'll see that price couldn't break this level for past two weeks). This entry happened right after RTH open and is clearly identified within the DOM/tape.
Look at the DOM action around first minute of the video, especially how it reacts to the 1509.00 - 1509.50 levels.
00:27 - price reaches 1509.50 lvl, no trades go off there and quickly 548 sold against 1509.25 bid.
00:35 - price reaches 1509.50 lvl, only 108 trade off there and then quickly 739 sold off at 1509.25 bid. Also notice 00:45 - situation repeats. Notice when price ticks up bids are added but when it ticks down they are pulled - someone is accumulating short. This is a chance to go short.
1:02 - someone slams 1581 at 1509 bid. This happens after the action described above, this is a second chance to go short. Also notice how bids are pulled here and offers are added.
Place around 1:35 is another spot to go short - price moves up fast 3 ticks, ig print on ask appears, then big print on bid appears at 1508.75 and after its being held with limit orders (even though price ticks up to 1509 - no trades go off there) 2:00 - 2:10 - selling accelerates (look at tape) this is a spot toshort at 1508.50 - 1508.25 (these are stops of those who bought in mini-consolidation higher)
