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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)
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Tape is my shape (tape reading, time and sales)

  #511 (permalink)
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It is not to "Find".... but "Think"

Bloom and others in this thread already shared many good knowledge .........

All you need is "Think: e.g: what at this moment the big players will probably do?"

I had read this thread a few times, all Bloom have teach us is to "understand" what the "tape" is doing AND

then think what will most likely happen next..... No one tell you to "find" something in the Tape....

I am still learning...... so maybe I am not right.

Bloom, I think the materials in this thread enough for a long time study. But it is better you can still give more precious knowledge to us if you have time. This is a valuable thread and hope that it can keep going.

Best Regards,
Antony Ho.

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  #512 (permalink)
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To Rocky:


rocky9281
Hello AntonyHo,

I am very eager to learn the subject. Will you please keep on posting your ideas? I am very interested to learn TR and I will definitely assist you to keep up your ideas and contributions, and keep on the thread going.

This thread has stopped. Will you please restart it again? If you start, I will be with you.

Dear Rocky,

Sorry, I am not allowed to reply to your PM, so I answer it here.

I am not qualified to keep this thread, I had been self-learning how to trade over 6 years, some years full-time, now part-time with a full-time day job. But I am still not consistently profitable.

I had read many forums, books, and attended many courses, but as more time I spend on learning, the more I can see that most of the successful traders are only doing simple things that I had learn on the first year.......

1) They are all ONLY trade around important areas, Support / Resistance. (me: overtrade, fear of missing out and get in too early OR fear of loss, and missed, etc)

2) They all have do big picture analysis, either use Volume Spread Analysis, $Tick, Fundemental, gap, higher-timeframe, etc..... Any of these are all ok for them. Because they only use it to get a big picture of higher probability "direction" only. (me: always don't follow the big direction: a) always hold on when I am against the direction where I should scalp. b) cannot hold on when I am right on the big direction, etc.)

3) They mostly have Tape Reading ability to become professional, this give them very accuracy entry. (me: before I was not using Tape, I only like gamble and place order at S/R, then hope that I am right. This "hope" make me have no confident on my entry and always either enter too early, or always have a tendency to take profit too early, and this psychology problem is not easy to solve)

After I read this thread, Bloom and DionysusToast give many good advise, and now WHEN I can see what happen behind the Tape had shown, I can have stronger confident that what I am doing is correct or not. (although it may still turn out to be a lossing trade, but the feeling is different than before when I am not watching on the tape)

I think Tape Reading is the last Tool that I need to add to my "Tools Set" ......

Hope the above can help you a little.

Thanks again to Bloom and DionysusToast and many others.

Best Regards,
Antony Ho.

P.S:
1) Maybe I am new to TR, I find it not always can use the Tape, e.g. when the price is jumping around during news. I find it much easier to understand the Tape when the market is not too fast..... but the Tape need to be smooth.
2) I agree with Bloom that Tape Reading can solve many emotion/psychology problem, because you can "See" what the market is doing at the moment, which get rid of the "fear" and "hope" in your head...... but the problem is I am now only capable of "understand" the Tape in very little of the time...


Last edited by AntonyHo; September 19th, 2011 at 01:40 AM.
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  #513 (permalink)
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It s been a long time i havent be here)))
Great to see thread still alive and may i say popular)))
Market changed since the day i start this thread and right from the moment i talk about BIG limit orders as them dissapear from the market and became much smaller.
Risk had increased but fundamentals of tape reading are still exist.
I want to say about one thing of how big traders think, to you can understand something about them.
Imagine you have a one million dollars. All you are dreaming about on your level of existence available from one good trade with such money. Just think. 10k $ on 1 car, so you can open 100 cars. One trade 1 point profit at the S&P500 mini futures E mini would bring to you 100*50-100*5=4500$/ Do so 20 days and you have 90k of green $. Do so 9 months of the one 2012 year and you Will Smith or Madonna or if you like it Opra Willson. So you do not want to lose this 1 million $ because if you do than you are one of the millions traders who had a struggle life)))) Like me for example )))
So the first thing big guys is seek LITTLE RISK
The second is high probability
And this one hybrid thing including both of risk and high probabillity. And this thing is motivate BIG guys.
So guys.There is a big risk in the futures. 12.5$ TICK 35$ TICK 10 EURO TICK.
So if a big trader trade futures so he must to seek low risk oportunity and this one is not againts another big guys.
market is drive by the fear. FEAR to lose everything is a basics of all strategys.
So you do not want to go against BIG traders and you do not want to go against strong crowd.
And how to determine it you know if you read a thread. All good to you and have a good day

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  #514 (permalink)
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Few Basics


AntonyHo View Post
All you need is "Think: e.g: what at this moment the big players will probably do?"

For newbies, he needs a list of options of 'what he can do' under several circumstances. Can you please help in that regard?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ok, here is how I think we should analyse the price in steps:

1. First of all, we need to have an evidence that there is actually a big player operating in the security. Otherwise, there won't be a guarantee of legitimate movement of the price.
This can be confirmed by:
a. Seeing big prints. (Only big players are able to give big market orders)
b. Seeing an algo getting executed. (Only big players are able to buy or sell by using algo)
c. If there are other options, please mention them.

2. Suppose we have identified a buy algo is getting executed (and nothing else meaningfull), we can be pretty sure that there is a big player, and he is going to move the price up.So we can buy.(Hoping that he will be succesful in his maneuver)
Vice versa for sell algo.

3. Suppose, we see big prints, here we can see a big buyer as well as a big seller. So, we cannot be sure who will win and as a result, which way will the price go. This is a more complex situation than pointing out a buy or sell algo as point 2.
Here, we must wait until one of the two gets defeated, so that we can go with the other player. (Please correct me if I am wrong.)

In most of the cases, we face the conditions where we have both a large buyer and a large seller. And here comes the challenge of how the situation should be analysed.
In cases where we have both a large buyer and a large seller, it will be evidenced by:

a.large prints (clash of 1 big market order+1 big limit order)
b.simultaneous execution of buy and sell algos.
c.combination of the above.
d.If there are other options, please mention them.


Last edited by rocky9281; September 19th, 2011 at 12:56 PM.
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  #515 (permalink)
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Talk talk talk. I need some action here ))))
This is russian index RIZ1
So tell me guys what do you see here?
This is how situation go
You see big prints at bid than at ask but price is going down. What are the hell ?you say/ there is a big buyers.
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So why do the price goes down?

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  #516 (permalink)
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rocky9281 View Post
For newbies, he needs a list of options of 'what he can do' under several circumstances. Can you please help in that regard?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ok, here is how I think we should analyse the price in steps:

1. First of all, we need to have an evidence that there is actually a big player operating in the security. Otherwise, there won't be a guarantee of legitimate movement of the price.
This can be confirmed by:
a. Seeing big prints. (Only big players are able to give big market orders)
b. Seeing an algo getting executed. (Only big players are able to buy or sell by using algo)
c. If there are other options, please mention them.

2. Suppose we have identified a buy algo is getting executed (and nothing else meaningfull), we can be pretty sure that there is a big player, and he is going to move the price up.So we can buy.(Hoping that he will be succesful in his maneuver)
Vice versa for sell algo.

3. Suppose, we see big prints, here we can see a big buyer as well as a big seller. So, we cannot be sure who will win and as a result, which way will the price go. This is a more complex situation than pointing out a buy or sell algo as point 2.
Here, we must wait until one of the two gets defeated, so that we can go with the other player. (Please correct me if I am wrong.)

In most of the cases, we face the conditions where we have both a large buyer and a large seller. And here comes the challenge of how the situation should be analysed.
In cases where we have both a large buyer and a large seller, it will be evidenced by:

a.large prints (clash of 1 big market order+1 big limit order)
b.simultaneous execution of buy and sell algos.
c.combination of the above.
d.If there are other options, please mention them.

Guy,

You need to think why you see big prints and what they mean - I have monitored this and it usually means you are at the end of a stop run. To be honest unless you can really take in all those numbers on a T&S I am not sure I would go down that route. IT is very hard to read tape and I am not sure it gives you any real advantage and it is not the panacea to trading. Trying to find out where the big trades are located is going to be a big challenge, however trying to find the late seller or buyer would be much easier in my opinion. Interesting that people spen their efforts trying to find out what the big guys are doing why not try and find out what the novice trader is doing as we are often told that 95% of traders lose money so surely they are the ones to take advantge of and nto the otehr 5% as they are obviously harder to find.

Take note all big sided trades that take place during the day, not the close, are trades losing mney so mayeb looking to go the oterh way maybe what you should look at or at least think about. Remember it's context so do not take this lieterally. Watch for the anomolies.

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  #517 (permalink)
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Trafford View Post
Guy,

Interesting that people spen their efforts trying to find out what the big guys are doing why not try and find out what the novice trader is doing as we are often told that 95% of traders lose money so surely they are the ones to take advantge of and nto the otehr 5% as they are obviously harder to find.

Todays action from opening on the ES rretail traders have go short and warkshop was warking very long time. As you read in this thread TR had 2 basics. BIG guys analyze and crowd or retail traders analyze. So do you read this thread carefull?
This are a big GUYS who react on actions retails are doing and gain profit from this and you learn to determine than game is have a place)))
And to understand are big guys would win or lose you must to keep an eye on the crowd and which side does it takes. AAAAAnd if you read a thread you must have see trades that actual were real)))
ANd than asked a question "Does it gives advantage?"
No it does not/ It is a bull shit man )))))

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  #518 (permalink)
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No way no fuc...ng way it gives you an advantage. Do not learn it
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  #519 (permalink)
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bloom View Post
Talk talk talk. I need some action here ))))
This is russian index RIZ1
So tell me guys what do you see here?
This is how situation go
You see big prints at bid than at ask but price is going down. What are the hell ?you say/ there is a big buyers.
Attachment 49564
Attachment 49565
Attachment 49566
Attachment 49567
So why do the price goes down?

Simple - limit orders.

The markets are a 4 way auction.

Market Buys
Market Sells
Limit Buys
Limit Sells

Thin markets - CL,YM, NQ :
- are more volatile, which means market orders lead to slippage. Also because of the volatility or 'wiggle', you can see an entry and then put a limit order 3 or 4 ticks away at a better price and most of the time you'll be filled.

Thick markets - ES, ZB
- are less volatile, which means market orders don't slip much at all. Because of the lack of volatility or 'wiggle', you probably wont even be filled if you put a limit order at the current price (e.g. inside bid for a buy).

If you look at a cumulative delta study for the YM, you will see that a lot of the time, the CD goes in the opposite direction to the price. You do not see this on the ES, at least not for very long.

The reason for this - limit orders make more sense on a really thin market. Less slippage and you can aim for price improvement. On a thicker market, market orders make a lot of sense as you don't slip.

So - if we look at YM & ES, we can see that people are obviously using different order types on those markets.

Once we understand that, we can then look at a specific market and start to understand the way limit vs market orders are driving that market at different times...

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  #520 (permalink)
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DionysusToast View Post
Simple - limit orders.

Once we understand that, we can then look at a specific market and start to understand the way limit vs market orders are driving that market at different times...

and as always detailed answer)))
I have another answer but yours make my picture more complited
This market drived lower by market orders of the crowd. And it will comes lower till crowd will go short and till all of it would sell. As the market orders or supply of the crowd became weak,market began to change it behavior.
In the begining of the move Crowd and pro sellers make together a supply, than it was only crowd, and then it was weak crowd against strong pro buyers.
Pro sellers come in to sell in to BID limits on higher prices, as price goes down they became less active. But buyers becomes more active and put more BID to buy.
So it was weak crowd or retails VS strong pro buyers. I did not think too long which side to take.
I go long and stop out all of the sellers. Trade of a day
Tape reading is not meaning seeking. It is about measure supply and deamand and what type of it you see. Market or limit S/D, pro or retail S/D, strong or weak S/D. Places there one stronger of another is a reverses.

Yesterday example of ES and how it rise up to 1200 shows you that all retail sell on the lows and been locked.
I tried to go long from opening . 1187 was my 1 attempt. 1184-1185 second. And last 1183. Market reversed and to the end of the day it was 1200. Why?
Because on the lower prices at the begining pro sellers come to sell hit to the bid> crowd come to sell too. market was emotional. Than pros understand that buyers too big and they began to go out on the bids, but crowd do not see this. As the crowd calm down and i say to you it was 51 miutes from RTH opening market reversed. Why do i go long there and not short? Because i see a large buyer on the limit bid side and i do not see big seller on the limit ask side. Yes there were sellers but a few compare to buyers on the BID.
All i see to go short was 1186-1190 zone. And it 2-3 hours after openingm and you can see i take a profit there one by one.
I do not go short from opening as the market crazy go down. WHY? You say there is so BIG PROFIT. And i say what DionysusToast say "Because of the slippage" To go short to the BID i need to know this BID limit is real and not just a scarecrow which will dessapear as i hit it. But to go short i do not see large sellers with me and my suplly will be eat and market goes higher. So there is a big risk and i know other pro see this too. And they would not think too long what to doo or hope some other guy move down prices for them because this is what they actual do ))) moving prices ))))
if crowd woudl not move down price and if all of your limit orders you put on ASK get filled with a light speed. What will you do? You will understand that here is a big demand and you real do not know how it big. So your fear to loose your account will drive you to close your position before other pros do it for your count))))
And what do you as a beholder will see?
1) Stream of big market orders to sell became weaker
2) At the BID sie limit increasing numbers of buyers
3) At the ask limit side decreasing numbers of sellers
But this is one situation than market go from BIGGER visable side. Sometimes it goes right to the bigger side))))
Complex. It is true ))))


Last edited by bloom; September 20th, 2011 at 01:34 AM.
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