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I dont know answer on this question.
Hedging is not passive. In general goal of the hedger to take high or low price to resources they use to produce to hedge from grow or fall. So sometimes they are agressive sometimes passive as situation dictate.
What you traded there is described as the 'waterfall' by many Tape practitioners. That stream of trades when the market breaks looks like a waterfall running down. When you see this - it's too late to get in. The smart money was setting up for that waterfall and you can see that on the Tape/DOM.
Look how price moves to 1.4381 a few times and immediately gets knocked back down with very few contracts traded. It can't hold 1.4381. Compare this to the time's it comes down to 1.4379 and whilst it does tick back up from there, it takes a lot more time to do so. Also - look at the size of the ask at 1.4380, it's not very big but look how many contracts are going through. Many more contracts than going through than that initial offer size. It appears to me that they are refreshing at that level (aka iceberg). Lot's of people putting buy market orders at 1.4380 and when price pushes through, it's back down straight away. This is short term accumulation by the people with the limit orders on the ask.
You saw this and you changed your order screen from a buy to a sell, you didn't submit it - but you obviously had a good feel for the fact the downside was more likely. At this point, you should have sold, not just changed the order screen but you should have hit submit. This is when a good tape reader will enter, NOT when you see the waterfall because you get a crappy fill and there's always a chance that price could rebound in which case that crappy fill will get you.
Still - you should pat yourself on the back for recognising that a sell was more likely at that point. This shows you are getting a read on the market.
Now you just need to grow a set of balls & pull the trigger earlier (just joking).
Unless you are a trading genius, a 4 tick stop on the 6E is going to drain your account.
The 6E is a moderately thin market - not thick like the ZF & ES but not ultra-thin like the CL.
With the 6E, you can often see the move is about to happen but still put your entry price a few ticks better than current price because the thing has more micro-volatility due to the thinness.
It's this micro volatility that will catch you out with your stops being so tight.
Even with Tape Reading, even when you can see 100% that your move is going to happen - it can still move against you before it moves your way. This often happens when people who 'flip' pull their bids to tease the market down a bit before hammering it up.
As part of your tape reading, get to know how much that market 'wobbles about'....
Agree with you about SL on 6E and thanks for your new information))) abou waterfall. Such poetic)))
Pbylina you should to rethink yor SL.
I hope social psuchology make you reconcidered your SL )))
when i look at the order-flow too closely it rarely helps me... i'll get lost. what i've been noticing is that even a pause in the flow, where buyers just aren't as strong anymore and are struggling on the upticks, is enough for an entry WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF A TRADE IDEA. then i manage the trade based on upticks & downticks and prints.
really, what magical signal will ever occur? what ultimate confirmation has to happen? if i wait for buyers to turn price upwards for a long, i'll have to take more risk than necessary, and in-order for survival, i want to keep my losses small.
so, maybe, possibly, likely, the order-flow is being looked at too closely... a signal that signals a turn with absolute certainty does not and will not ever exist. trade management is very important to me.
There is no magic signal. What you talk about IS tape reading.
There are subtle hints. The more subtle the hint, the earlier you get in and the more risk you take. On the other hand, full and total confirmation costs you ticks in terms of getting a worse entry.
Order flow cannot be looked at as a snapshot. It is changes over time and you are right, if you are new to it then it needs to be used in context, not as an analysis method in it's own rights.
