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I have not read through the entire thread, so I am not aware if the participants of this thread have seen this or not, or if in fact, you are the principle of Jigsaw, but I thought the thread's participants might find it interesting.
1) 4~ ticks before Low you see tape to start to flow better but it is choppy.
2) When it gets to the Low it is bad flow and choppy. Bursts. Seemed like it would not go through.
3) Tape was going fast after breakdown but it was not getting far.
1) Approaching the Low was not a good flow of tape. Was forcefully being pushed down.
2) When gets/breaks low, it starts flowing good but gets absorbed at 1.4496~.
3) Bad flow up but we steadily get to 1.4405.
4) There is tug of war for long time.
5) I wouldn't of taken this trade.
Good stuff, just not that these observations are fine in thin markets.
On the ES - it's a different matter. If someone puts in a 1000 lot market order - it will fill pages and pages of your Time & Sales. Hence you wont even see the prints.
Of course if you look at CL, 6E, you'll see the prints because even 20 lot orders are pretty big...
You'll do well at this and the reason why is that you are looking at changes over time as opposed to looking for a fixed picture on the DOM/T&S.
As you read the market and see changes over time, you are reading something different every time. No 2 scenarios are exactly the same. They are similar but not the same.
The mechanical crowd will tell you that you are therefore guessing and bound to blow up. In fact, you have an edge over them because you are reading the markets.
But CHARTS shows you " HEY There is a better opportunity of the day!!!!!"
This is a dead line of difference between charts and the tape. You totally right to not take this break down as it was 50 on 50. Coin throw and catch. There was 50% you succeed.
As you watch one colored tape you see a behavior and that one is what very important.
In general idea of reading tape is to measure supply and demand and which one is stronger and go with a stronger flow. Changes in behavior of the tape shows you where to beware and where is to push harder.
Trust yourself and your observations. believe - what is simple that works better))))
This is really good stuff and i am using his Reconstuctered Tape for myself. I am already talk about this. If you just had read the thread more deeper you ll see it )))
Rocky - forum rules say I can't talk about my products but I am pretty sure that I'm not the only one reconstructing trades as a means to following large players.
I did it because of CME changes but before that, there were bots splitting up large market orders into smaller orders to prevent algos from spotting the larger orders.
Now - if you had an profitable algo (as in the cost of running the algo pays for it's existence in some way) that spotted large orders and some infernal bots came along and started splitting them up would you:
a) Say "jeez guys - you are just too good for me" and give up
b) write an algo that gets around the splitting algos
My money is on B. So whilst I've never heard of other people having similar algos, I presume they exist.
