First let me say, I am not familiar with this stock at all, and I don't even trade stocks and I know they are different from futures, so please understand I am coming from that perspective, as I don't know how this stock normally trades. Also, this is all in hindsight so it's so easy to do what I'm doing, to make the notes AFTER the fact. Trading in real time is the challenge we all face.
The first thing I think I would note is that there is never really any sign of buying strength here. Forget what you see at the bid or ask in the tape--where in this chart does it look strong at all? So I would not look to buy unless a prior resistance level is broken, and it wasn't all day.
After lunch, at "A" you see volume of note enter the picture, and it appears to indicate a reversal up. However, at "B" there is little volume, and price does not break the down sloping trend line that is forming the wedge. The lower highs demonstrate the likelihood of a continuation down. This is not confirmed though until finally, at "C" the breakout of the wedge occurs, and does so on good volume. I like to look inside the 5m bars with 1m bars, and looking at your tick chart confirms that the initial break was strong, followed by a lower volume classic-looking bear-flag pullback. So I would look to short somewhere just under 874, probably under the low of the 3rd or 4th of the 1m bars inside the 5m bar after "C". A more conservative entry would be to short the red line I drew in at C, though it gives you a much larger stop. The stop for the trade would be above the high of the bar after "C", the bull bar, or above the lower line of the wedge, just above 876.
Over the next hour and a half we just have sideways action. The short trade is in question if you're still short, but there's really nothing in the price action that says to worry, until the bar just before bar "D". This is a bullish bar, and on good volume, so I would be sure my stop was at the green line. But all this does is to trap bulls, who fuel the move down as bar "D" closes near the lows of the consolidation area, on higher volume than the previous bar. A good short entry IMO is a break of the low of bar "D", or more conservatively the current low of the day set around 1:50pm. Of course, as volume enters strong near the close of the day and the ranges narrow and bar "E" is closes near the high I would look to close out my short position.
The theme for this chart to me is, "don't buy." I can't see what's to the left and that would probably affect my judgement, but I see nothing in these bars that encourages me at all to want to buy. The thing is this rocky--you see large buy trades coming in--but you have no idea as to the intention of the buyer. Around 1:30 with the "14828" block you have printed, in that section there are several large buy orders. Is this profit taking, new positions being initiated, etc? You have no idea, and it doesn't really matter. Notice that right before the breakout there is a large block of 15692 and price does not budge up at all. If anything this large buy being absorbed and not pushing price at all would be a good sign for a breakdown coming up. At any rate, not one major resistance point was broken to the upside, so there's no reason to buy, period, regardless of what you see on the tape.
The following 2 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
If you see this kind of activity at Level 2 and tape is full of fast, too close to a circular time 7:45, 7:50, 6:00 or something like that, it means the news. Have you seen the news. Go to the news must be prepared in advance.
The following user says Thank You to bloom for this post:
No reasons, no person, only the order flow. Do you see a large block of BID. So there is a big bid limit. Who and how it fills a different matter. Clear your head of these issues.
The reality is that the BID put higher and higher. Take a Ofer. The dynamics of the strong? If so, what do you see the market going higher seeking a new price where people will take profits and stop BID put higher and higher. What did you will see then in prints? Blocks Ofer, no blocks on Bid or weak, or their bid will be well filled. Dynamics of the dead. Here's what you'll see.
In this situation, is seen as holding the bid. what happens next depends on how soon the buyer stops. Sometimes it's 4 seconds. Sometimes he buys a whole day)))
AAAAAAAAAAAAA man. How cool is to find like-minded people. In Russia, few hacks in this thread. You're a real fine my soul touched the strings. All that way. More and more selling. You buy? Ach, come on, I'm selling you as much as you would not buy it. What do you buy more, so I'm more selling.
Guys. Cut in a monochrome ribbon. Only it will open your eyes.
The following 2 users say Thank You to bloom for this post:
Buddy, slow down. I see you really want to fight. You're so burned out. Shshshshshshshshshshshshsh. Calm. The market here and will not go anywhere. Your life is long in time to cut the dough in the market. Do not rush. Confused with a sense of alignment with
Open High Low Close Previous next few days. Assess the market reaction to those prices with tape. I'm going with the reaction.
Here situat.low of the day broke through. price went down.then Price turned around and punched to the above is broken low. Ofer begin to appear on the prints. 1000, higher than 2000, still higher than 5000, still above the price of broken LOW 10000 at ask. I think quite clear that here, if buyers do not go further aggressive to ASK. LOOOOOOOOWER MAN
Price- reaction. That's all I use.
The following user says Thank You to bloom for this post:
Great thead. I have to go back and read more but I just got so happy reading about tape reading that I haven't been able to complete the entire thread before responding. Here are some of my thoughts so far:
1) Even if the professionals break down their trading size substantially, they still tend to trade larger than the average retail trader. This will be evident on the individual tick volume. A moving average on tick chart volume can give a clearer indication of whether size is increasing or decreasing with a move. 2) Know where the important battlefields are intraday. Tape reading requires a lot of focus but there are some low probability areas were the markets are unlikely to reverse and large money is unlikely to show its face. Whether it is Pivot Points, Retesting intraday highs lows, retesting yesterday's high/low, Opening Range highs/lows, Fibonacci, Retracements, or plain ole support/resistance, there are certain areas you should be expecting the bears and bulls to duke it out for supremacy intraday. These areas are when risk is at its lowest. 3) Disregard the bullishness/bearishness of a candlestick near support/resistance and focus on the time of sales. A lot of times you might get an extremely long bullish candlestick with a pullback at the top of the candlestick. Some people may look at this as bullish but then those who are watching Time of Sales might see that someone just let a massive amount of contracts go at the top and so smart money is unwinding its position in the trade. If you focus solely on the
Rocky, I also took a look at your chart as well. Not all of the trades would have worked out, and I am sure I would have gotten stopped out once or twice for the volatile periods but this is how I use tape reading and volume analysis to get a feel for the markets. Also, I highly recommend 'Tape Reading and Market Tactics" as an excellent read
The following user says Thank You to Bermudan Option for this post:
guys, you have to understand. To succeed in trading you need a good advantage. You need a good probability. The simpler the plan, so it is easier to implement. Those pros who cut your stop loss, take 1-2 points on the SP 500 mini.
They are also at risk as you are. THEY MAKE A SIMPLE PLAN. But the first thing they look at order flow, looking for a big shark, so with her, to devour you. Do not throw stones at me, but in many positions these guys do not, as long as they do not have inside information. Talk about it we will not. I do not want tomorrow to talk with the FBI
Therefore, the more all the technical crap you watch, the more it will knock you. Price reaction. Important current price and the previous day. So you want to do anything yourself. You know better. I'm going to trade their way easier. You may be shocked, but the first 3 months of studying tape, I do not look charts. Only tape and level 2. And let me tell you, success has been crazy. I traded in + and 8 of my trades from 10 was +.
The following 4 users say Thank You to bloom for this post: