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Good Models Gone Bad


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Good Models Gone Bad

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  #1 (permalink)
 MXASJ 
Asia
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader, TOS
 
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I'd love to produce a movie with that title but I digress...

Markets change. They trend. They revert. They chop.

We (as traders) create indicators, plans, and/or stratagies that work, and then don't work when conditions change. Then we change. Our goal is to take money from the markets. Adapt or die. We stop using what stopped working and find something that does.

But what happens with the Good Model Gone Bad? Can you identify WHY it stopped working and shelve it until "good" conditions work once again? Or do we optimzise/rewrite/overwrite the code in search of the "all markets, all times" Holy Grail?

Regime Analysis? Sector Rotation? Cycle Models?

Discuss...

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  #2 (permalink)
 gio5959 
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MXASJ View Post
I'd love to produce a movie with that title but I digress...

Markets change. They trend. They revert. They chop.

We (as traders) create indicators, plans, and/or stratagies that work, and then don't work when conditions change. Then we change. Our goal is to take money from the markets. Adapt or die. We stop using what stopped working and find something that does.

But what happens with the Good Model Gone Bad? Can you identify WHY it stopped working and shelve it until "good" conditions work once again? Or do we optimzise/rewrite/overwrite the code in search of the "all markets, all times" Holy Grail?

Regime Analysis? Sector Rotation? Cycle Models?

Discuss...

a tool is only useful in the hands of a skilled craftsman...

ppl here change indicators, and the settings of those indicators, bout as often as i change underwear - every 5 days or so (whether i need to or not) - im making a point with that wise crack but im sure only a hand full will understand it

my secret weapon is knowing how to read price action

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  #3 (permalink)
 KJAVED 
Toronto Canada
 
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Hi Gio,

Your voice looks good and full of reality. Thanks

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  #4 (permalink)
 DavidHP 
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MXASJ View Post
...Markets change. They trend. They revert. They chop.

But what happens with the Good Model Gone Bad? Can you identify WHY it stopped working and shelve it until "good" conditions work once again? Or do we optimzise/rewrite/overwrite the code in search of the "all markets, all times" Holy Grail?

Discuss...


I've...
... been active trading since 1995ish.
... had every charting program / indicator known to man (or woman).
... had charts with so much on them it was hard to see the price.
... had pretty charts with flowing waves and indicators that would rival a Monet.
... had many 'Holy Grails'.

All of these have gone the way of the "wicked witch of the west".
(she melted in her own importance)

The thing that always had remained in each new experience is PRICE and VOLUME.

My latest 'Holy Grail' is a chart with almost nothing on it. Since the only thing that has stood the test of time is P/V I'm eliminating anything that does not make that easier to see.

Everything else seems to be 'fluff'.
I'm discovering, the "Holy Grail" lies within me not on the chart.

"Seek not to know the answers but to understand the questions"

Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
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