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Okay the results for today.
These are the settings I had put them on to trade. ( this was all done on paper simulator TOS with 1 contract)
All was set on a 5 min time frame. All buy orders was placed at 4 ticks above the charting lines price. SL was placed at the charting line prices. TP was placed at 8 ticks above the buy order price. These was also placed on the sell side if it was to have went to the down side.
/QM 1 trade, SL was hit for a loss of $50, but the break out still occurred on the same or the next 5 min candle and would have hit the TP. ( SL was hit by 3 ticks under SL price )
/CL 2 trades total, Trade 1 TP was hit for a Gain of $80
Trade 2, SL was hit for a loss of $40, but break out did occur on the same or next 5 min candle and TP would have been reached. (SL was hit by 4 ticks under SL price.)
/CL had 2 trades due to having a closing candle below the charting price which reset the trade.
Over all was a -$10 loss. With fees it would have came to a near total of -$25 loss on the day.
I dont think it is bad at all, all trades did break out and would have hit the TP. All woud have been a min. of 2 to 1 profit. Think the change will be to move the buy order price 8 ticks above charting price and have the SL 3 ticks above charting price. All break out was easy a 2 to 1 win, by moving the buy order higher this could change the buy price to be in the break out area more, which would lead to not hitting the SL so easy. Plus add 1 extra tick to the SL price instead of 4 it would be 5. Little more risk but the reward would still be set at 2 to 1. What does anyone else recommend ? Thanks
A little change in some buy and sell areas will make this a good plan for a select few contracts. Just from quick look it seems the energy sector does well with this kind of set up. (oil, natural gas, ect.) just have to get it to a good setting where the win loss is above 70% I would think.. But this is awesome so glad you made in to a code !
Awesome! Instead of using an arbitrary number of ticks I would recommend using a threshold based on the size of the range. By doing this, the strategy will adjust itself to current volatility conditions.
Post some charts of the strategy in action!
If you can get this to a 70% win rate and 2:1 reward:risk I will stop looking for the holy grail because we will have found it. Even a 70% win rate and 1:1 risk:reward would be fantastic!
I don’t mean to be pessimistic but I think setting realistic expectations is very important.
Matter of fact, it revolves around the prior weeks range and a very similar calculation. What would need to be changed for using Week instead of Day?
For the formula I’m looking to take the prior weekly range x 0.75 then subtract that number from the prior weekly range again and divide it by 2. Something like this...
(Prior weekly Range x 0.75) - Prior Range = X
X / 2 = Y
Prior Weekly High - Y = New upper weekly horizontal line
Prior weekly Low + Y = New lower Weekly horizontal line
Is it possible to code it where it would be able to calculate the buy price, stop lose and target price all in one ?
I think with some messing with it it should be able to achieve atleast a 60% win to loss ratio. I only do day trading, I dont hold anything overnight, so this could be calculated to be a swing trade I would think. But yea I will post some pictures of it set up on a chart. I will also try and do a video of it hitting a break out and watching it work. I could post that to You Tube. It might take a couple days to do that. I am busy for the next couple days during the main trading times in the mornings. Thanks for all the help on this ! I will post everything so we can see how to tune it as good as possible. I have this set up on bracket orders on /QM, /CL and /NG. It seems to work with them best just from looking at it on charts it could possibly work with ETF's of these such as UGAZ, DGAZ, but that would have to be researched at another time. To be honest, I really enjoy trying to find good set ups that have a good probability to be profitable. I still have a good one on Bonds, but those things move so slow and dont get many ticks on them at one time. But I will try and get this close to being as good as it can. Always will be interested in any advice on what should be used to try and make it better.
Well I was not able to get all the details of the trades before it started a new session for the day. But I was able to take just a quick look at it during the day and seen that it got slammed to the dirt. There was many losers with that much of a spread on the SL. Buy Order and TP.
What I will try to do now is focus just on the /QM. I have it set now at 1.25 to 1 profit ratio.
on /QM the chart price is rounded to the nearest tick. Chart price is the SL. I added 4 ticks to the Buy Order from the chart price. Then it is 5 ticks to the TP from the buy order for the 1.25 to 1 ratio. This done on the 5 min chart. Here is a picture of the 2 Bracket Orders I have set up. Hope this gets us close to the 60% plus win/ loss.