Tap In 

The #1 golfer in the world as of this writing is Dustin Johnson, a man known for his prodigious length off the tee. I "want" to play golf like Dustin Johnson. I "want" to be able to hit 350 yard drives and reach 600 yard par 5's over water in two with a 3 iron. I "want" to do this but I don't have the skill or talent to do this. All I can be is who I am. I'm a guy who plays pretty good golf hitting it 280 off the tee, laying up to 100 yards, and hopefully wedging it in close for birdie. Most of the time Dustin will beat me on the hole, sometimes we will tie, and on occasion I will beat him. That's the reality. When I try to play like Dustin because I "want" to play like Dustin, I fail. Every. Single. Time.

Sounds familiar...

MWG86 

Take a golfer who wants to hit a driver like DJ and have a short game like Phil. This player spends most of his time on the range hitting driver and working on his flop shot. Then after a couple of months he does a meticulous study of his scorecards. This study finds that from 80-150 yards out he's consistently giving himself a makeable putt but when he's 50-80 out he's getting up and down only 40% of the time. If this golfer can recognize that the point of the game is to get the ball in the hole in the fewest shots then he can adjust his game accordingly to play to his strengths and dial down to a 3-wood off the tee giving himself 120 in rather than pounding driver every time. It's still important to work on his weaknesses but playing to his strengths will score better.

Glad you're seeing success, keep it up!

Great journal man. Well done for finding success and thanks for sharing your thoughts.

The following is more of the same, a continuing theme that I seem to have to keep reminding myself of:

A recent discussion in another thread on the number one reason most traders fail has caused me to think more deeply about my own trading.

The premise of the thread is that the #1 reason most traders fail is because they have an unhealthy need to be right on every trade. This need to be right causes hesitation and fear which adversely effects results. As the argument goes, they should think more probablistically over a series of trades rather than live and die by the results of each trade.

My argument is that the number one reason most traders fail is they never develop a tradable edge. Because of this, if more traders traded with a more probabilistic mindset, and executed more boldly on their perceived "edge", they would actually do worse because most traders don't have the edge they think they have.

This got me to think more deeply about my own edge. I've had a run of losses in the past few months because I have been trying to develop a more rules based style of trading. I get lost on these tangents every once in a while because I'm naturally drawn to the idea of a trading style that takes judgment and feel out of the equation. Perhaps it is the constant pressure of having to always be "on" that eventually gets to me, and a rules based approach takes some of this pressure off. "When A, B, C happens, go long. When D, E, F happens, sell."

The problem is, I have never been able to come up with any rules based plan worth a damn, and every time I go off on these tangents I end up going backwards in my account, or wasting precious time not trading the way I should be trading.

So how should I be trading? Well, I have concluded that my "edge", if you will, is the freedom to NOT TRADE. In other words, not execute, not take that next trade, to pass if I'm not feeling it, to filter.

My advantage (to the extent that it is), that no algo can take from me, that no big shark can use against me, is my ability to stay out of the market. In that way they can't touch me. They can't chop me up unless I let them. I don't have to blindly follow some suicidal plan that has me in deep drawdown. I don't have to endure loss after loss in chop while my "formula" attempts to get me in to the next trend. I can wait, and wait, and wait until the market screams at me to go.

For this reason, in thinking back on the times that I have performed best, it is precisely when I have concentrated on being "right" on the next trade that I am at my best (while keenly aware that I won't be right 100% of the time). If I only take trades where I have a high degree of confidence, I have a better chance of taking only the best trades and therefore causing the aggregate of trades to have an expectancy in my favor.

I see a lot of traders beating themselves up for not executing on their plan. In many cases their plan is not worth executing on in the first place (which might subconsciously be why they don't execute!). I believe they would be better off learning to spot, and wait patiently for, moments in the market that they can exploit with a high level of certainty of success. By taking only trades that they are very confident in, they'll have a better chance at seeing a positive aggregate.

To this end, the following, are some of the things I will focus on in 2020:

1) Never take a trade in which I am not extremely confident. I must feel it in my gut. Doing this will give me a better than 50% chance of being successful. This is my edge.

2) Never fret over "missed" trades. If I decide, for any reason, not to take a trade I must live peacefully with the decision.

3) Understand that a lot of time might go by between trades. Live peacefully with this.

4) Do not lament missing great days of movement. You didn't see a trade that you liked. Live peacefully with this.

Good to see you back buddy!

I don't know what your profession is, but I think trading is even more difficult for traders with a rules-based profession like software developer, compliancy, controller, etc. I'm working in ICT myself and have struggled a long time with rule-based trading methods. When Ed told me to create a bias for the trading session, I realized this was very far outside my comfort zone. Until then I was always thinking in rules and adding/changing rules in my trading. I believe that in time you develop some kind of intuition to know when your rules work or when they don't. I guess that's why some call trading an art. It also explains why developing a automated rule-based trading system is so difficult.
So, yeah, I think you're on the right path realizing that your edge is not to trade while your rules say so trade.

Good luck man.

GruttePier 

Good to see you back buddy! I don't know what your profession is, but I think trading is even more difficult for traders with a rules-based profession like software developer, compliancy, controller, etc. I'm working in ICT myself and have struggled a long time with rule-based trading methods. When Ed told me to create a bias for the trading session, I realized this was very far outside my comfort zone. Until then I was always thinking in rules and adding/changing rules in my trading. I believe that in time you develop some kind of intuition to know when your rules work or when they don't. I guess that's why some call trading an art. It also explains why developing a automated rule-based trading system is so difficult. So, yeah, I think you're on the right path realizing that your edge is not to trade while your rules say so trade. Good luck man.

Tax preparer in current profession, engineer by education, but spent a lot of my career in client relations and contract negotiation, so I'm all over the board. Definitely on the analytical side of personality.

More than anything it might just be trying to shirk the responsibility of having to make a decision on every trade. A rules based approached takes some of the interpretive decision making off my shoulders. But it's time to take responsibility and get back at it.

I'm looking forward to the day you can trade live again. You seem to be ready.

Thanks for the kind words

My two most destructive emotional drivers are FOMO and Regret. Fear of missing out on the benefits of the next trade, and regret for missing out on what might have been on the last trade.

One feeds the other.

The antidote to both is DNGAF.