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Just some personal thoughts about AAPL. Their market share dominance could be declining as Samsung and other competitors overtake plus their products are becoming derivative of themselves with annoying bugs. Unless they come out with crazy new developments such as rollable paper thin computers such as seen in "Red Planet" (before IBM does , lol) their meteoric rise and growth may not be continued.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Yeah I agree Samsung seem to have the momentum at them moment at least as far as products are concerned. iPad Mini seems over-priced for aged technology and demand has seemed lower than even Apple's predictions.
Maybe Apple TV will improve their fortunes in 2013 but whatever happens I'm keeping a close eye on it!
I have written before about the ease with which the producers of charts (including me) can deceive, even if not trying to do so. Some of the most common ways include picking a starting point for a chart that maximizes a particular point of view, using price instead of total return for longer periods, and putting lines together on a chart without comparing them on a percentage basis. Today’s topic is an example of the latter.
In a given day, you probably see lots of charts with multiple axes. Most all of them give you a distorted view of the world. You might get an idea that something is going up when something else is going up — and down when it is going down. That can be of interest, but multiple-axes charts, which are popular with investment professionals and bloggers, give false indications.
One example can be found in the top panel above, which was published by Zero Hedge with the title “The iParadox.” The lower panel shows the same intraday information on a percentage basis. One gives the sense that Apple has just diverged from the S&P 500 for the first time since the end of October. The other gives an accurate representation.
AAPL is, of course, endlessly fascinating, not to mention maddening for portfolio managers who are at risk of having their investment process distorted by it, as I wrote about in April.
There are plenty of paradoxes to be found in the analysis of the stock and its market action — a look at the year-to-date action is below — but throwing things on a chart and letting the software line them up for you without a sense of magnitude probably will get you headed in the wrong direction. (Chart: Bloomberg terminal.)
What a set up, and technical signal I have received to short apple.
After all these years in this business: learning the technicals, the charts, the psychology and I ignored it... embarrassing.
Last week as I go to get a hair cut, the girl that washes my hair tells me she always buys aapl.
Every time it goes down, she buys and she makes a little.
I asked her if she is not afraid from some big correction and obviously..."no, because its apple it always goes up".
I should have shorted it....This was a signal from G-d.
Missed a tip of a life time, for everything else there is master card.
M
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AAPL may be the only stock (or instrument for that matter) I consider on its fundamentals because of its importance. IMO the fundamentals haven't changed since last September.
For newbies and any who happen by, if any of my posts on this thread aren't clear, I'd still short AAPL until the cows come home.
To further clarify I don't personally invest in tech stocks anymore, having lost a fortune believing one tech or another was going to change the world (now having accepted Marshall McLuhan as one of the few folks in the last century who made sense). Tech eventually gets transformed into art and with the demise of what's his name the process with AAPL has begun.
This is my analyst hat. We know what live artists make.
I'd rather invest in dead artists than tech.
That said, I respect traders in tech who make a bundle when I didn't see it coming (assuming those traders haven't been arrested in Athens lately)
