AMD - Advanced Micro Devices - futures io
futures io futures trading



AMD - Advanced Micro Devices


Discussion in Stocks and ETFs

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Big Mike with 9 posts (3 thanks)
    2. looks_two tturner86 with 3 posts (2 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Underexposed with 2 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 MetalTrade with 1 posts (0 thanks)
    1. trending_up 3,809 views
    2. thumb_up 5 thanks given
    3. group 3 followers
    1. forum 16 posts
    2. attach_file 4 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

AMD - Advanced Micro Devices

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,733 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,279 given, 97,464 received

I have been a supporter of AMD for a very, very long time. The first AMD system I built was an 386/DX40. It was some years ago

That said, AMD has always been a poor performer and not something I would consider in a long term portfolio. But, I am looking at a chart now and thinking this may be an opportune time for a new short position, for a swing position of say a few weeks at most.



Anyone else agree with taking a short here?

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:

Journal Challenge February 2021 results (so far):
Competing for $1500 in prizes from Topstep
looks_oneSBtrader82 's Trading Journalby SBtrader82
(139 thanks from 28 posts)
looks_twoJust BEING a Trader: Letting Go!!by iqgod
(106 thanks from 27 posts)
looks_3Wisdom is Emptinessby Mtype
(66 thanks from 24 posts)
looks_4Deetee’s DAX Trading Journal (time based)by Deetee
(30 thanks from 14 posts)
looks_5Journal for peanuts1956by peanuts1956
(23 thanks from 13 posts)
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #2 (permalink)
 
 
Posts: 1,081 since May 2010

IMHO Apple looked in buying them, when Steve Jobs was pissed that IBM didn't kept their promise of making a 3GHZ cpu, but then Intel showed Apple their roadmap and made them an offer they couldn't refuse. That could have been their momentum, but it didn't.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,733 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,279 given, 97,464 received


A bit over one week later, I still like this short but we need to see it break the support level around 7.25.



Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,733 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,279 given, 97,464 received



AMD engineer pleads guilty to stealing sensitive Intel chip documents - TechSpot News


Quoting 
Former Intel engineer and newly hired AMD employee, Biswamohan Pani, has plead guilty to five counts of fraud centered around the theft of sensitive Intel documents. The stolen information, valued at an approximate total of $1 billion, included chip-related design and manufacturing data. It is thought Pani intended to use the information for purposes of career advancement. However, AMD denied knowledge of Pani's wrongdoing and has cooperated fully with federal investigators.

Pani had worked at Intel's Hudson-based chip making plant located in Massachusetts before he submitted his resignation on May 29, 2008. Although his last day at Intel was June 11, Pani began his new job at AMD on Jun 2 while simultaneously retaining access to Intel's network. During this time, he had been downloading sensitive documents centered around Intel's manufacturing and chip designs.

Corporate espionage and intellectual property theft -- be it the theft of trade secrets, schematics or other proprietary information -- can be extremely lucrative in the right hands. Investigators have found no links between AMD and Pani however, in terms of willful espionage.

Intel quickly learned of the breach and stopped the engineer from pilfering documents before he could "use them to Intel's disadvantage". With Intel's help, federal investigators recovered approximately $200-$400 million worth of stolen information from Pani's home.

Pani, originally charged in 2008, may face up to 20 years in prison for each of the 5 counts of fraud brought against him. Sentencing is scheduled for August 8.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,733 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,279 given, 97,464 received

AMD CFO steps down

AMD loses respected CFO, shares plunge - CNBC

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,733 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,279 given, 97,464 received



Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,733 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,279 given, 97,464 received

AMD death watch... again... all the layoffs... again...

https://www.twitter.com/Street_Insider/status/259025034989940736



Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
New Jersey
 
 
Posts: 3 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

Cool. I have however been trying to find reasons to buy the stock. So far this is what I have came up with.

They are working with Oracle to make their cheap graphic units higher performers. (can't post links yet)

While they have restructured managers the current CEO has 23 years at IBM and John Gustafson is a "well known" tech leader from Intel.

Recently introduced a dual-core 2-60 chip for tablets.

10/1/12 WFC gives outperform rating.

I work at WalMart and up to now many of the laptops that we have had come in have AMD stickers on them. They are the cheaper ones and the greater in amount. I say up to now 11/4. because recently there hasn't really been anything coming in in terms of pc's.

Im still not totally convince in AMD but if they keep doing stuff I don't see why not.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,733 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,279 given, 97,464 received

The rise and fall of AMD: How an underdog stuck it to Intel | Ars Technica



Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,733 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,279 given, 97,464 received


Part 2

The rise and fall of AMD: A company on the ropes | Ars Technica

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
Albuquerque, New Mexico
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Forex
 
Posts: 4 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 5 given, 6 received

Just found this thread. I was actually in this move from 2.25. AMD came up in a scan of 52 week lows, and it was completing the D leg of both a Gartley and a Bat pattern on the weekly. I got in after the morning star candle completed. Not the prettiest, but they fit the rules. Final target is the .382 retracement, and right now my trail stop is under the 34 EMA at 2.84.

After the massive move this week, and with only 1 week until expiration, it is a perfect time to sell some credit. I'm selling the $4 calls naked with a stop of the underlying at $4.


Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
Marketing Specialist
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Trading: GBU-39
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,172 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 10,456 given, 12,601 received

Summary

Model updated for restructuring charges and lower growth outlook.
My assumptions in the Levered Returns valuation models yield a fair value per share of $3.50, still 31% above its October 16th closing price of $2.67.
AMD represents a significant opportunity for long-term investors.
Q3 Earnings Announcement
  • Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) announced its Q3 earnings on October 16th, which missed analyst estimates, and the company decreased its Q4 outlook. It was not a press release investors cheer for. However, I still believe the company has long-term growth potential as AMD applies its technical expertise in CPUs and GPUs and enters other processor applications. In addition to diversifying its offerings, AMD continues to lower its cost structure.

Updated Levered Returns Valuation Model

I have updated my Levered Return's 5-year discounted cash flow "DCF" analysis shown below (prior analysis can be found here). Key differences include:

Updated for Q3 results.
  • Projected revenue growth lowered to reach $5,691 million by fiscal year 2018 ($6,557 prior).
  • Projected EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) lowered to reach $580 million by fiscal year 2018 ($610 prior).
  • Slightly lowered the company's long-term terminal growth rate from 3.0% to 2.5%.
  • Adjusted the equity waterfall for the $57 million forecasted restructuring charges.

AMD: Patience Could Pay Off, Fair Value Price Target Moved To $3.50 - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) | Seeking Alpha

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tturner86 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


tturner86 View Post
Summary

Model updated for restructuring charges and lower growth outlook.
My assumptions in the Levered Returns valuation models yield a fair value per share of $3.50, still 31% above its October 16th closing price of $2.67.
AMD represents a significant opportunity for long-term investors.
Q3 Earnings Announcement
  • Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) announced its Q3 earnings on October 16th, which missed analyst estimates, and the company decreased its Q4 outlook. It was not a press release investors cheer for. However, I still believe the company has long-term growth potential as AMD applies its technical expertise in CPUs and GPUs and enters other processor applications. In addition to diversifying its offerings, AMD continues to lower its cost structure.

Updated Levered Returns Valuation Model

I have updated my Levered Return's 5-year discounted cash flow "DCF" analysis shown below (prior analysis can be found here). Key differences include:

Updated for Q3 results.
  • Projected revenue growth lowered to reach $5,691 million by fiscal year 2018 ($6,557 prior).
  • Projected EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) lowered to reach $580 million by fiscal year 2018 ($610 prior).
  • Slightly lowered the company's long-term terminal growth rate from 3.0% to 2.5%.
  • Adjusted the equity waterfall for the $57 million forecasted restructuring charges.

AMD: Patience Could Pay Off, Fair Value Price Target Moved To $3.50 - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) | Seeking Alpha

I wonder if you outright believe these things that you post or if you evaluate them critically.

Nowhere in this article dated Oct 21/2014 does this blogger state that they have revised their forecast down from their previous one...

But that is what happened... Just 11 days earlier this is what this blogger (who doesn't even identify him/herself) said this

AMD: Recent Sell-Off Provides Opportunity For Value Investors - $4 Fair Value Price Target - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) | Seeking Alpha

Eleven days earlier the forecast was for $4.00 and now he dropped it to $3.50....hmmmm

Let us see how his forecasting has changed from Oct10 to Oct 21

Forecast ........................ Stock price ............ Sales growth ............ Margin ............ Net Operating profit

Oct 10/14 ........................ $4.00 ........................ 9.3% ..................... 8.7% ............... 208
Oct 21/14 ........................ $3.50 ........................ 4.0% ..................... 8.7% ............... 198

Well he/she dropped the target by over 10%....cut the sales growth by over half but somehow maintained the same margin and only a slight decrease in Operating profit even though there is over a 50% decline in forecast sales.


I also love this statement: AMD continues to lower its cost structure.

Really???? If I made such a statement it would be made on an observation of quarterly financial reports showing costs steadily dropping...or at least a negative slope

let us make our own analysis of their costs




I don't see a continuing drop in costs.....they look pretty constant to me.


When evaluating a Blogger analyst....especially one who does not reveal their name.... check out previous articles

Here is one on Clorox

Have Clorox Ride The Pine: Editable Valuation Model Included | Musings of a Banker

this is dated July 9/14 and here is a quote of the conclusions


Quoting 
Clorox is a respectable company that owns well recognized brands and delivers consistent cash flows. However, the company’s financial performance has lagged its public peers and currently trades at premium multiples. Applying an average to the Levered Returns models implies an intrinsic value of approximately $72.53 representing a 21.1% discount to Clorox’s latest trading price of $91.90 as of July 6th. I recommend value investors wait for a pull back before considering buying shares of Clorox at current prices.

Well here is a chart for Clorox



I suppose in fairness he did pick a near top and it did pull back $6 but that is a far cry from the $20 pullback he suggests in his model...and even hanging onto that stock at $92.00 realizes a pretty good gain today.... I have to wonder if that model he uses still puts Fair value at $72.00

Here is another blog....this time on Kimberly Clarke

Hidden Value In Kimberly-Clark: Interactive Valuation Model | Musings of a Banker


Quoting 
Hidden Value In Kimberly-Clark: Interactive Valuation Model
Posted on July 4, 2014 by moabanker

Summary

Strong historical dividend growth for Kimberly-Clark, combined with no imminent threats, makes this tissue maker a strong buy at these levels. Levered Returns’ Gordon Growth Model provides the appropriate valuation check for Kimberly-Clark, implying a fair value of approximately $133. Applying my assumptions, Kimberly-Clark is 20.0% undervalued based on the July 1st close price of $111.52.

Well here is how good that prediction was in the short term



well 10 days later that "strong buy" plummeted 10% and 4 months later it has climbed back to where it was at the time of the post.

Personally I am not overly impressed with this group...turns out to be a group of bankers(if they are bankers) making these predictions.

Conclusion

Long term forecasts are fanciful dreams IMHO... this blogging group does not have a great track record so I would not believe them very much...ESPECIALLY in this case with AMD where they changed their forecast after just 11 days.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
Marketing Specialist
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Trading: GBU-39
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,172 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 10,456 given, 12,601 received

@Underexposed I am just posting news and articles that pertain to different stocks. It is up to the user to make an informed opinion.

I don't believe or care about most, if I did I would make some commentary about it.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
Calgary Alberta/Canada
 
 
Posts: 934 since Feb 2014


tturner86 View Post
@Underexposed I am just posting news and articles that pertain to different stocks. It is up to the user to make an informed opinion.

I don't believe or care about most, if I did I would make some commentary about it.

Really...you don't care what you post here??? How useful is that?

there are many pertinent articles like this one form ZACKs

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Far more useful analysis and hard info.


Quoting 
Guidance

Management expects fourth-quarter 2014 revenues to decrease 13% sequentially, (+/- 3%), due to lower semi-custom revenues and a weak consumer PC environment. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 35%. Operating expenses are expected to be approximately $385.0 million and interest expense is expected to be approximately $46 million.

this runs contrary to the "forecast" of that blogger who predicts increasing growth...but that is only the management's view...{shrug}

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,733 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,279 given, 97,464 received


Underexposed View Post
Really...you don't care what you post here??? How useful is that?

Hey remain calm please. I also post news stories, whether I agree with them or not. If I have something to say I'll comment on it, otherwise I just post the link if it is relevant to the thread.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
Marketing Specialist
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-50
Trading: GBU-39
 
tturner86's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,172 since Sep 2013
Thanks: 10,456 given, 12,601 received


Underexposed View Post
Really...you don't care what you post here??? How useful is that?

there are many pertinent articles like this one form ZACKs

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Far more useful analysis and hard info.



this runs contrary to the "forecast" of that blogger who predicts increasing growth...but that is only the management's view...{shrug}

I guess I should have said I don't care whether you think it is the right news article or not. If you do not like what is being posted then post your own articles.

I am posting articles that catch my eye that other traders may be interested in, Whether they are fluff or not, I don't care and I am not gonna make that judgement for another trader. Each trader needs to learn how to read between the lines and gather what they need to make a decision.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tturner86 for this post:


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Stocks and ETFs > AMD - Advanced Micro Devices


Last Updated on October 23, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1500 prizes from Topstep!

February
 

Identifying Setups & Targets Using Profile Charts w/Trevor & Tradovate

Feb 25
 

Battlestations! Show us your trading desk - $1,500 in prizes!

March
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts