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2023 Bank Crisis and Meltdown: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse ...


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2023 Bank Crisis and Meltdown: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse ...

  #51 (permalink)
 chasepatrol 
Bremen, Germany
 
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The magnitude of the current banking crisis is visible in the picture below.

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  #52 (permalink)
richardrgayton
Fullerton California
 
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Thank you for the comparison chart. I think it is clearer to compare the size of the current 2023 bank failures to the magnitude of a combination 2008 and 2009 bank failures since those two years were caused by the unfolding credit default swap mess caused by inadequate regulation. The current failures are related to the rapid increase in interest rates by the Fed with the banks holding long term low interest bonds. The question is how many banks have made the same mistake. Not sure we know yet. Apparently the Fed thinks not that many since it raised rates again yesterday and did not lower them to stave off a wave of bank failures.

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  #53 (permalink)
 
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 Big Mike 
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Is this enough to stop the bleeding? Avoid a collapse?




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  #54 (permalink)
SunTrader
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More "shoes to drop".

First Republic Bank for one - rates continuing to squeeze margins.

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  #55 (permalink)
 
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 Big Mike 
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SunTrader View Post
More "shoes to drop".

First Republic Bank for one - rates continuing to squeeze margins.

Who is on your short list?

Mike

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  #56 (permalink)
pstrusi
Lalin Pontevedra Spain
 
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chasepatrol View Post
The magnitude of the current banking crisis is visible in the picture below.

I'm pretty sure that bank industry will continue to see some similar cases but it seems to me that the Fed took notice pretty quickly and began a quiet QE just to stop a crisis, however, while Fed funds rates keep High, "in order to combat inflation", we'll be heading for a controlled recession. Fed knows that inflation will be over cause the bank's losses are deflationary. Fed is trapped. The best case: a mild recession while avoiding a bank catastrophe or the Worst case: A huge and critical bank crisis leading to Depression plus social convulsion. I hope for the best.

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  #57 (permalink)
brmicha2000
Denver, CO
 
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I think this is just like history repeating itself. In 2008, larger banks absorbed about 75 percent of the total banks in existence back then. If that pattern continued, would we end up with just one bank eventually? Who knows? But, I guarantee, if J.P. Morgan were alive today, that would be one of his goals for the banking industry Mr. monopoly himself. In the process of this bank being closed, we saw investors investing in a single bank stock, who probably thought it was very stable and safe, lose all their money in that stock, and will never get it back. That story should be something that makes us learn about and realize the reality of risk, and why someone would want to be diversified when owning stocks. I don't think this situation is the same as 2008, where banks were over-leveraged and gambling, but were just trying to invest in safe investments, and it backfired from rising interest rates. In the end, I think it will work out, and hopefully, will not cause anymore knee jerk market fear based reactions. For a few days, the market was had very low liquidity, which was allowing to move much more than usual. In a crash situation, where there is mass panic, this could allow the market to run down by extraordinary amounts. But, in this case, it didn't have that effect, because I believe large institutions were buying, while aggressive market order traders actively selling.

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  #58 (permalink)
SunTrader
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Big Mike View Post
Who is on your short list?

Mike

If you are referring to stocks to short list?

Futures are all that I short.

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  #59 (permalink)
brmicha2000
Denver, CO
 
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SunTrader View Post
If you are referring to stocks to short list?

Futures are all that I short.

Well, I hope you shorted the Nasdaq futures and then got out before the aggressive traders started buying at the bottom, since that's the only futures that had any inkling of downward movement.

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  #60 (permalink)
SunTrader
Boca Raton, FL
 
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brmicha2000 View Post
Well, I hope you shorted the Nasdaq futures and then got out before the aggressive traders started buying at the bottom, since that's the only futures that had any inkling of downward movement.

I trade, I don't hope.

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