futures io



2023 Bank Crisis and Meltdown: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse ...


Discussion in Stocks and ETFs

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Big Mike with 8 posts (22 thanks)
    2. looks_two SunTrader with 8 posts (3 thanks)
    3. looks_3 phantomtrader with 6 posts (15 thanks)
    4. looks_4 SMCJB with 6 posts (8 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one bobwest with 7 thanks per post
    2. looks_two Big Mike with 2.8 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 AllSeeker with 2.7 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 phantomtrader with 2.5 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 4,885 views
    2. thumb_up 122 thanks given
    3. group 574 followers
    1. forum 65 posts
    2. attach_file 6 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 150,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

2023 Bank Crisis and Meltdown: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse ...

(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
SunTrader
Boca Raton, FL
 
 
Posts: 242 since Nov 2018
Thanks: 74 given, 169 received

Although SVB doesn't fit this category (non-bank Fincl's) just got this yesterday from FedRes:-

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr1057.pdf

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to SunTrader for this post:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Import failed: the ninjasceipt archive file may contain …
NinjaTrader
About : All data must first be loaded by the hosting Nin …
NinjaTrader
ninja trdaer order blocks, orice action ict
NinjaTrader
I wonder and I ask you…
Psychology and Money Management
NT lifetime commisons
Brokers
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Big Mike in Ecuador
28 thanks
New NinjaTrader
18 thanks
futures io site changelog and issues/problem reporting
16 thanks
Unsubscribe from Threads
14 thanks
Not enough skin in the game?
10 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
 AllSeeker 
Legendary Pratik_4Clover
Mumbai, India
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradingView & ZerodhaKite
Trading: NIFTY, BANKNIFTY
 
AllSeeker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,358 since Jan 2019
Thanks: 5,036 given, 4,814 received


phantomtrader View Post
SVB's business was start ups and risky tech investments. These companies will not be able to meet payroll or pay bills without their lines of credit. That means multiple bankruptcies coming up. Some of these companies may have gone
public and are already trading on the NASDQ. If that's the case, there may be a negative impact on the futures. In any case, the bankruptcies will filter down through the economy as SVB had a huge portfolio of companies they
lent to. On top of that, they have a major portfolio in treasuries whose yield has steadily gone down due to interest rate increases. Why they didn't liquidate the treasuries is a mystery. Maybe they used them as collateral. Who knows.

The government is in charge now. And remember: "We're the government. We're here to help!"

Truly, I'm also little confused by it. Every person who has been following basic economic news probably knew fed rates were going to get hiked, this is not something happening overnight, so obviously if one had huge assets in treasuries, any sensible organization would start moving it to some place else.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to AllSeeker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
 phantomtrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
Reno, Nevada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ZN, ZB, CL
 
phantomtrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 544 since May 2011
Thanks: 189 given, 909 received



AllSeeker View Post
Truly, I'm also little confused by it. Every person who has been following basic economic news probably knew fed rates were going to get hiked, this is not something happening overnight, so obviously if one had huge assets in treasuries, any sensible organization would start moving it to some place else.

Exactly. That's why I'm thinking they used the bond portfolio as collateral, possibly borrowing from other banks to pay the bills.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to phantomtrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
 bobwest 
Site Moderator
Sarasota FL
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: ES, YM
 
bobwest's Avatar
 
Posts: 7,768 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 55,648 given, 25,521 received


phantomtrader View Post
SVB's business was start ups and risky tech investments. These companies will not be able to meet payroll or pay bills without their lines of credit. That means multiple bankruptcies coming up. Some of these companies may have gone
public and are already trading on the NASDQ. If that's the case, there may be a negative impact on the futures. In any case, the bankruptcies will filter down through the economy as SVB had a huge portfolio of companies they
lent to. On top of that, they have a major portfolio in treasuries whose yield has steadily gone down due to interest rate increases. Why they didn't liquidate the treasuries is a mystery. Maybe they used them as collateral. Who knows.

As I understand it, they did liquidate their treasuries heavily, once they got hit by depositor withdrawals -- and they took a serious loss on them because the fixed rates they had from earlier bonds were much lower than current rates, so their market value had tanked. A big part of their problem was the they needed to meet panicky depositor withdrawals, and then they tried to raise the cash, they couldn't. California (they were a state-chartered bank) declared them insolvent on Friday -- unable to meet their obligations to their depositors -- and named the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to manage their liquidation.

It was a classic bank run: assets mostly long-term and illiquid, and short-term depositors demanding their cash now. That's why it all went bad so fast, as depositors got nervous.

There probably will be serious consequences to the tech firms that not only were financed by loans from them, but had their money on deposit there, too. Deposit insurance only goes to $250k guaranteed, and the balance, which will be large for many companies, may or may not be recoverable. Often the feds can find another bank that is willing to take over the failed bank -- the loans to the tech companies they have outstanding are still assets and may be attractive to a buyer, but probably not at full face value.

It can get very messy for a while.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Reply With Quote
The following 8 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
 phantomtrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
Reno, Nevada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ZN, ZB, CL
 
phantomtrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 544 since May 2011
Thanks: 189 given, 909 received


bobwest View Post
As I understand it, they did liquidate their treasuries heavily, once they got hit by depositor withdrawals -- and they took a serious loss on them because the fixed rates they had from earlier bonds were much lower than current rates, so their market value had tanked. A big part of their problem was the they needed to meet panicky depositor withdrawals, and then they tried to raise the cash, they couldn't. California (they were a state-chartered bank) declared them insolvent on Friday -- unable to meet their obligations to their depositors -- and named the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to manage their liquidation.

It was a classic bank run: assets mostly long-term and illiquid, and short-term depositors demanding their cash now. That's why it all went bad so fast, as depositors got nervous.

There probably will be serious consequences to the tech firms that not only were financed by loans from them, but had their money on deposit there, too. Deposit insurance only goes to $250k guaranteed, and the balance, which will be large for many companies, may or may not be recoverable. Often the feds can find another bank that is willing to take over the failed bank -- the loans to the tech companies they have outstanding are still assets and may be attractive to a buyer, but probably not at full face value.

It can get very messy for a while.

Bob.

Thanks. I hadn't read that yet. $250,000 is a drop in the bucket. You can't even open an account at SVB without a large deposit. I would wager 80% are at risk for a lot more.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to phantomtrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
 iq200 
London, UK
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninjatrader, Tradestation
Broker: Kinetick, InteractiveBrokers
Trading: Equities, Futures
 
Posts: 400 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 140 given, 266 received


SunTrader View Post
Shows .... nothing but a blurred image for me.

If you are on a PC, hover above the image and click on the [] button along the bottom of the image to expand to full screen. Once in full-screen, you can zoom in..

Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
 phantomtrader 
Legendary Market Wizard
Reno, Nevada
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ZN, ZB, CL
 
phantomtrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 544 since May 2011
Thanks: 189 given, 909 received

You could have made a bet in Vegas that this was going to happen:

"CEO of Silicon Valley Bank sold $3.57 million of stock in the troubled bank just TWO WEEKS before its dramatic collapse in automated trade planned on January 26 - and CFO ditched $575,000 the same day
Greg Becker sold 12,451 shares at an average price of $287.42 each on February 27. The price plunged to just $39.49 in premarket Friday before trading halted

The day his sale went through, Becker bought the same number of shares using stock options priced at $105.18 each, according to filings with the SEC
CFO Daniel Beck sold 2,000 shares at $287.59 per share on the same day

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11846085/CEO-Silicon-Valley-Bank-sold-3-57-million-stock-dramatic-collapse.html

I'm sure most of the insiders did the same thing. With their contacts at the FED and the WH, probably a good bet there will be no consequences.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to phantomtrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: Collect them all
Trading: Equities, Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,284 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,819 given, 100,119 received


bobwest View Post
As I understand it, they did liquidate their treasuries heavily, once they got hit by depositor withdrawals -- and they took a serious loss on them because the fixed rates they had from earlier bonds were much lower than current rates, so their market value had tanked. A big part of their problem was the they needed to meet panicky depositor withdrawals, and then they tried to raise the cash, they couldn't. California (they were a state-chartered bank) declared them insolvent on Friday -- unable to meet their obligations to their depositors -- and named the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to manage their liquidation.

This is my understanding as well though admittedly I'm not following super close. A quick message to my primary bank to ask about contagion and I was satisfied with their answer so backed off for the moment.

But this is just the beginning....imo

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Please support our community:
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $100 USD
Receive exclusive offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers


Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: Collect them all
Trading: Equities, Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,284 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,819 given, 100,119 received

Just read that Roku held $500MM there and was mostly uninsured.



Sent using the futures.io mobile app

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Please support our community:
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $100 USD
Receive exclusive offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers


Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
SunTrader
Boca Raton, FL
 
 
Posts: 242 since Nov 2018
Thanks: 74 given, 169 received



iq200 View Post
If you are on a PC, hover above the image and click on the [] button along the bottom of the image to expand to full screen. Once in full-screen, you can zoom in..

Thanks that made it larger but still not legible - for me at least.

Anyway I have PDF now so all good.

Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Traders Hideout Stocks and ETFs > 2023 Bank Crisis and Meltdown: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Credit Suisse ...


Last Updated on March 28, 2023


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
     



Copyright © 2023 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts