This rocket business isn't for the faint of heart. Satellite valued at 198 million was lost as well, the vehicle and then whatever damage to the launch pad. From some people close by saying they heard 20 explosions I guarantee lots of stuff on the ground blew up ... What a shitty day ...
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New rocket ... Usually insurance won't cover this sort of thing. The satellite company carries insurance and I guess it would cover it here, I don't know the fine print on that coverage.
I have some really bad feelings about this one ...
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Interesting that it starts just below the payload shell.
Then the major bang is when the payload hits the deck, much more volatile detonation from it's fuel.
Probably some kid with an over-driven laser pointer First thing that came to mind as I used to blow up stuff all the time with my 2W (bit bigger) until dad found out I'd boosted it a tad. Mistake showing him that burned through house brick..
I must download the 1080p 60fps and have a closer look..
Those cameras are miles away. The first "minor" explosion you hear is the 2nd stage blowing, to me it looks like the common dome between the propellants let loose, mixed the props and then blew it all up. 2nd big explosion is the 1st stage blowing up. The payload falls at the same time but the amount of propellants onboard is a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of the vehicle.
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Something to remember is all the propellants are separated during the filling of the vehicle. I was the lead test engineer on an old stage that we blew up in Texas (not on purpose). The upper stage oxygen tank let loose at the very top in a known defect area. There was zero fire and the kerosene in the lower tank was all recovered except for maybe 200 pounds worth. There are pictures of this somewhere on the interwebs ... Also view the in flight failure, no fire in comparison to all the propellants on board, the vehicle just fell apart effectively. This one literally blew from a mixture of propellant issue, similar to the grasshopper vehicle that blew up. Big fire works.
I have some ideas on what happened but nothing to back them up except past experience. All those secondary explosions were GSE tanks on the ground which means the entire pad within 100 feet of the rocket is toast. Horrible day ... From the video you can see the sphere white ball on the far right, that's the liquid oxygen tank and it survived so I'm guessing the kerosene farm is ok as well. Probably helium and nitrogen tanks that were blowing up.
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Indeed, I had compensated for the sound travel time in my head but I should have more clearly differentiated between explosion and smaller detonation (supersonic shock-wave). I'm assuming the payload stage propellant was more energetic if it went off.
1080p FBF does not really give a clue, wait for the report.
It was probably normal hyperbolic propellants on the space craft, Isp efficiency numbers are very similar but they light on contact so more volatile that way.
Watching the video again is making me sick
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I can imagine. As a kid a retired friend was a senior engineer on the Saturn Vs among others. I recall him marveling that they got away with it so many times. He joked that he'd stick a lump of coal up his ass before launch and if it went wrong he'd have the diamond as severance pay The idea has kind of stuck with me in my trading.
Ya he wasn't joking. Even working there because I wasn't involved with launch there were so many things that happened that we didn't know about. I heard a few stories though months afterward that would make the hairs on my neck stand up. The day that business becomes routine I will be amazed.
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Talked to a few people on the inside and a lot of scratching heads ... Elon finally posted to Twitter today also and I read that as the same sentiment ... A kinda WTF just happened ...
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Was in Vegas with some old Space X buddies this weekend shooting the crap at a bachelor party, they have lots of theories for something actually able to burn but nothing to ignite it. Everything has been pushing forward up until they get to full up stage hot fire testing in Texas.
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I know pretty much nothing about Space X, and, of course, I'm not alone if you are talking about detailed knowledge of the business, which is closely held.
My general take, however, is that you should expect some drastic ups and downs in any business involved in space flight at this particular time. Consider how reliable early airplanes were (or weren't), and how long it took for any new industry to become established and reliable.
I'm not surprised that some rockets have blown up. Likely many more will, before the launches can become routine.
NASA did make shuttle launches routine, but it took a long time and a lot of work, and some tragedy too. Expanding space flight out into the commercial world, where it needs to go if it is to become something ordinary, just like flying a plane, is going to take a lot of these kinds of setbacks and false starts.
It's still extremely cool that someone, anyone, is launching rockets into space. Sort of like when people first paddled their canoes very far off-shore, or however they first went out into the big ocean.
Calling it an explosive device is right on. In fact, it's an explosive device that is exploding right underneath you, and you just hope it stays contained long enough that you can live through it.
There's just an amazing level of both courage and ingenuity at work in all this. My hat's off to all of them, no matter what the role they may play.
I do hope they figured out the fix, and it was the helium thing. It will not be good at all if there's another accident. Only way to find out is to launch again, I guess. These things happen, and I hope the next launch goes well.
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I was at JSC/NASA yesterday, first time there in about 15 years. It was interesting, obviously they have lots of Apollo, Shuttle & Space Station exhibits, but there is a huge emphasis on Mars Mars Mars, even to the point that they talked about how they've contracted out their space station transfer needs, so that they could focus on Mars Mars Mars!
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Booster stage after separation. This is one of the first times we have had this kind of shot. Usually it is over the ocean off Pacific so we don't get this kind of angle and view.
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TheVerge: SpaceX loses the center core of its Falcon Heavy rocket due to choppy seas It landed on its drone ship, but the ocean was too rough to keep it there
I had heard it landed, but not that it then fell off the barge in high seas!
Audience: "Charlie, one of my favorite lines from you is you want to hire the guy with an IQ of 130 that thinks it is 120 and the guy with an IQ of 150 that thinks it is 170 will just kill you"
Good clip. But it's not just, or even mainly, about Musk.
Not to say anything for or against Elon Musk, but I watched the clip to the end and he also says that you shouldn't "underestimate the man who overestimates himself," which is also food for thought. (He doesn't care for that person, mind you, but he knows there is such a thing.)
He says that he prefers the "prudent person" over the "delusional" one who occasionally knocks it out of the park. But he is talking about who he would hire to work for him. I'd want a reliable, solid type of person too, if I were hiring someone to work for me. I'd want predictability. Brilliance would be OK, but I'd want to know they'd get the job done. Of course, I would be the one telling them the job I wanted done.
Change the context a little though.... If you had the idea about yourself that you would become one of the wealthiest people on earth, then I would say that, no matter what your IQ is, that's a pretty delusional idea on the face of it. Yet both Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet have done just that.
I'm not criticizing either the original post nor, certainly, Charlie Munger, and I hesitate to praise Musk too much, given his problems with Tesla (so far) and given the probably excessive praise that has been heaped on him. We don't know what the scoreboard will eventually show on him (Tesla: currently troubled, Space X: pretty amazing. But no final score on either.)
But while a person might regard Buffet and Munger as the height of sober, prudent, sound investing acumen, let's face it, there are a whole lot of careful, sober, prudent investors who are not among the top rank of the world's multi-billionaires, and who won't ever be. Aiming to succeed that big is pretty delusional, until you do succeed, and then it's not. Buffet's investing style, after all, was always different from what everyone else was doing, and it worked out pretty well.
Is there a point here? Well, I guess it's just to not automatically underestimate the "delusional" ones. They may not be that crazy after all. You should also know that most of the big thinkers flop, which is the other side of it. Then you can decide where you want to be yourself. ( )
And no, I wouldn't hire an Elon Musk. I might back him, but only with risk capital I were willing to lose.... Same goes with Buffet though -- even now, there is no assurance his next moves will work out. (And yes, he's got a much better track record than anybody. But he didn't in the beginning, and that was the best time to back him, when his future results were not known. Funny how that works.)
But I hope my point is clear anyway.... Exceptional results are scarce and you really can't predict them. The somewhat-smart, reliable follower of directions will follow orders very well, perhaps even with some initiative and originality. But won't ever make a billion dollars.
This was a great quote. I always like Charlie Munger -- he stimulates thinking, whether in agreement or disagreement with him (or semi-agreement .)
Bob.
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I forgot about that great quote. Both are just so fantastic and especially in conjunction. Having 95yo Charlie around still is such a gift. The whole talk is worth listening to.
I really have nothing against Musk. I think it is a shame there are not more people willing to take huge risks.
Peter Thiel makes such a great point that we have only had innovation in the world of bits and have pretty much given up on innovation in the world of atoms. Musk is really the only one trying to do anything in the world of atoms.
Personally, I just dislike all the cult of personality/twitter/rock star bullshit that surrounds him.
First thing that came to mind as I used to blow up stuff all the time with my 2W (bit bigger) until dad found out I'd boosted it a tad. Mistake showing him that burned through house brick..
)