This is my tread for the June contest to teach a trading strategy. It is located here because we will be trading stocks or stock index ETFs. An instrument with a lot of daily volatility. And who is "we"? Me and anyone who wants to participate in this tread. I may be the teacher but because the students are as smart or smarter than me, I may be the one to learn the most in the month of June.
My attachment shows two strategies I have been researching. Tomorrow, May 31st, I will pick a strategy to teach starting June 1st. I favor the left one.
The following 5 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Hello all my fellow traders. This is my intro post of this strategy. This strategy has never been traded live. It is an offshoot of my trade journal. This contest matches my timeline for instituting this strategy. This is my teaching thread but this thread will be more like a discussion thread with member participation. I put this thread in Traders Hideout for all members to view and I am trading a stock index ETF because trading is trading. If you can successfully trade an ETF you can trade an e-mini. If I am trading an ETF, I can just sit back, relax and trade the signals. If I want to increase the reward, I can increase the share amount.
I wanted to create a simple strategy. I would rather trade just price action, but I have come too far with indicators to just start a new trading style. Being a futures.io (formerly BMT) member, I have learned to see price action but not to trade it. Now that I see it, I let price work the trend without sweating the pullbacks.
Like I said, this is a simple strategy, three indicators to show trend and one indicator for trade management.
The next post will describe the strategy.
The following 5 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
I wanted to create a simple strategy.......KISS. I didn't want to look at many indicators waiting for them to aline. But I do have three indicators and they must aline for a trade, but I think I made it simpler. The three indicators are the FTZ_SharkTrend, set to two zerolag EMAs for a single MA; the TSI4JefffromTMFT, set to a zerolag EMA also, used to paint the background; and the ESFXtrader_CCI used to paint the price bars.
Blue EMA, blue background and blue price bars......................BUY (long).
Red EMA, red background and red price bars........................SELL (short).
Any other chart combination...........................WAIT..........(flat).
This is a mechanical strategy............I do not want to think while trading. I did my thinking creating this strategy. I had five final strategies and this is the one that proved itself. I was really pulling for another but it didn't make it.
The trade management indicator is the anaSuperTrend, I am using it for stop placement and for trade continuation (no thinking). The only situation is that this indy calculates using the price bar's median and ATR, so as the price bar expands the stop retreats until the bar paints. Because this and the other indicators are set to "calculate on close" = False. Maybe I will replace it with another version.
I started this strategy with a 5 minute bar chart. But I changed to a 3 minute bar chart because I like the shorter time frame, but not too short. And finally, I want to trade a volatile ETF so I decided to trade IWM which is like the TF e-mini. There are others of course like SSO, QQQ, FCX, etc.
The next post I will describe the rules, followed by a post of today's trading.
The following 4 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
RPM123, Thanks for asking a question on my contest thread. I would love to try this with a range and/or renko bar. My free data feeds for stocks (ETFs) only allows accurate bar charts with minute bars. And Zen Fire doesn't have a stock data feed. I would probably have to subscribe to Kinetick or E-signal for data to create range and renko bars. Tiberius
Trading Hours: 9:30AM to 4:00 PM ET, Position exits allowed during after-hours trading.
Trade Executions: Enter a position only after the bar, the background and MA have painted the same color (the signal). Immediately enter the position on the trigger bar as long as it agrees with the signal bar and the MA line of the TSI is pointing in the trade direction. Exit the trade on the stop order or when the color conditions of the trigger bar change after the bar paints. Use any type order to enter and exit the trade.
Signal and Trigger Bars:
Blue MA, blue background and blue price bars......................BUY (long).
Red MA, red background and red price bars........................SELL (short).
Any other chart combination...........................WAIT........ ..(flat).
Stop: The stop is set by the anaSuperTrend 1, 1, 1; "Calculate on bar close" set to "True"
Indicators: "Calculate on bar close" set to "False"
FTZ_SharkTreand_v01........MA
Tsi4JeffFromTMFT..........Background
ESFXtrader_CCIBarCounterv7......price bars
BarTimer
That is the rule set. Remember, I have not traded this strategy live and it is in testing phase. Your feedback and comments are important to me and all on futures.io (formerly BMT). We all know there are thousands of indicators or at least indicator combinations. This is a combination I have currently chosen after being a member of futures.io (formerly BMT) and doing a trading journal. I have been playing with this strategy for a few weeks and tweaked it Tuesday for this contest. I wanted this system to be 100% mechanical and this rule set makes it so. No thinking. But traders do think, so maybe this strategy needs to be 75% mechanical and the exit open to thinking. I was going to include a list of Guidelines like TSI MA hooks, dojis, long wicked candles, OS/OB, stop placement; but that would be thinking. The only other way I am considering in trading this strategy is with the color conditions of the trigger bar until it changes with a catastrophe stop. With this, I am trying to cut my losses and let my profits run. More later.
The following 4 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Well, you have me hooked. I'm a Keep It Simple kind of guy too. I put it up on an 8 and a 20 bar YM for grins and it looks pretty good. I can post pictures, but I did not know if that is appropriate on your thread. I'll be testing/watching it this week and next and see what happens. Good luck in the contest and more importantly in creating a great system.
The following user says Thank You to rpm123 for this post:
rpm123, please post images and commentary to this thread.Tweak the parameters.Post your trading style and stop placement for this strategy. My only interest, here, is SUCCESS. Tiberius
The following user says Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
This looks great. I looked for the indicators to download so I can follow along. I can not seem to locate them. Can anyone post the pages or links where they are at in the download section. I did a search and can not locate them.
I appreciate any help on this, it looks like a great system
The following 3 users say Thank You to drytlewski322 for this post:
This thread is a work in process. More than a teaching thread, it is a discussion thread. As I work with this strategy everyday, I continue to observe and formulate a different way to view the strategy on the charts. This morning I created a 30 minute chart for a swing trade. Just before I uploaded the images to this post I created a 30 minute chart for the micro 6E. The one thing I noticed with all the charts was if you just took the trade in the direction of the FTZ_SharkTrend; you would have success. I am going to describe each template for which I have been shortening the parameter. But next I am going to create a new template to expand the parameters on the TSI and CCI to match the colored plot of the SharkTread and adjust the anaSuperTrend for a wider stop to accommodate price action. And I am going to create templates for Range and Renko charts for the 6E and YM.
PARAMETERS:
Template v1 and 30min v1:
Stop: The stop is set by the anaSuperTrend 1.618, 14, 5; "Calculate on bar close" set to "True" This was the parameters before I tweaked the chart for the contest.
Indicators: "Calculate on bar close" set to "False"
FTZ_SharkTreand_v01.......1, 21, ZLEMA, 21, ZLEMA, 1
Tsi4JeffFromTMFT......... 6, 14, 21, 30, -30, EMA; ZLEMA, 21, ZLEMA, 9, 30
ESFXtrader_CCIBarCounterv7.....14
Template v2:
Stop: The stop is set by the anaSuperTrend 1, 1, 1; "Calculate on bar close" set to "True"
Indicators: "Calculate on bar close" set to "False"
FTZ_SharkTreand_v01.......1, 14, ZLEMA, 14, ZLEMA, 1
Tsi4JeffFromTMFT......... 3, 9, 14, 30, -30, EMA; ZLEMA, 14, ZLEMA, 6, 30
ESFXtrader_CCIBarCounterv7.....14
Template v3:
Stop: The stop is set by the anaSuperTrend 1.2, 2, 1; "Calculate on bar close" set to "True"
Indicators: "Calculate on bar close" set to "False"
FTZ_SharkTreand_v01.......1, 14, ZLEMA, 14, ZLEMA, 1
Tsi4JeffFromTMFT......... 3, 9, 14, 30, -30, EMA; ZLEMA, 21, ZLEMA, 9, 30
Tsi4JeffFromTMFT......... 6, 14, 20, 30, -30, EMA; ZLEMA, 21, none, 1, 30
ESFXtrader_CCIBarCounterv7.....14
Version 3 was just a dual TSI that I created to time a trade where you enter the trade on a background color and you exit when the background changes from dark to light. I find it is a little difficult to tweak an indicator if I do not know how the parameters calculate the indicator. So I am going to ask Fat Tails how the SharkTrend plots and TMFT how the TSI4Jeff plots with respect to the parameters. Both indicators have both a MA1 and a MA2; and/or short periods and long periods. So is that a MA of a MA? I do not know. Then I can tweak the indicators with a little more knowledge. And I have some reading material on the TSI to post. True Strength Index.
So next week, I am going to tweak the 30 min chart to swing trade IWM or SSO live. And I want to create a 12 Range chart for M6E to swing trade the September contract live. And see how this 3 minute charts can gain consistency to trade live.
I will be on-line all weekend and for my next post, I will find the links on futures.io (formerly BMT) for the indicators
The following user says Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
I have never downloaded this file before, do you just download these and import them like a indicator? Or do you still need to download the indicators as well.
Thanks
The following user says Thank You to drytlewski322 for this post:
hello everyone, i am new here and i have a question on downloading .cs files and .xl files and templates. when i download a zip file everything works fine and i get the indicator. i also use the same procedure to download any other file except a zip file …
Don't be afraid to learn how to use the futures.io (formerly BMT) search feature.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jeff Castille for this post:
you download the file from the post. save it in documents, downloads (received files). then go to saved location and (right click) "copy" on template file. go to documents, ninja trader 7, templates, charts....... then (right click) "paste" on template list. the template then will be available in the data series window of NT7 for creating a chart. you must have the indicators available in NT7 or they will be missing from the chart. if you double click on the template file, you can see the list of indicators in the template
Thanks Jeff didn't see your post. Thanks for the TSI4Jeff.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Just looking for the indicators. I seen you said you will look for them in futures.io (formerly BMT) and post them, thats good cause for some reason I am not finding them, all I found was the Ana Trend.
Thanks look forward for the links to the indicators
The following user says Thank You to drytlewski322 for this post:
The ESFX CCI is in his TF trading thread. The SharkTrend is in Sharky's classroom. Jeffs TSI is in one of his thread. One or all are in the download section. Also if you click on search in the search engine and enter the indy name, you can find some links. And finally I think one or all may be Elite downloads, so if you are not one, be one. I figured I wasted $8500 before I found futures.io (formerly BMT) and made the best investment of my trading life, **** $50 ****. If you want to play, you have to pay. I need to get back to cooking dinner.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
I Have been looking and searching for the Shark Trend, And The Tsi4 Indicator mentioned, Can anyone please give assisitance on helping me locate, I did search in the elite sections, downloads ect, I must be overlooking them somehow someway.
I found the other, but can not locate these two.
The following user says Thank You to drytlewski322 for this post:
If and when some one has any time could you please add a sound alert to this indicator please.
In case some of you alrady has the same with sound could you please post one. I've looked around but could not find one.
The alert should trigger when …
I have a dream........for a cool indicator........I've been working on the True Strength Index indicator by William Blau. ( A derivation of the RSI by Welles Wilder)
You'll see that I've had to overlay two versions of the same …
The following user says Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Thanks to eDanny for helping solve the placement of text in both panels. I tried to use solutions he posted in another thread and couldn't get it fixed so I resorted to asking the master for help and he was more than willing to do so. Just another …
You had asked me to post a picture using your system with range bars and I trade the ym. I did not mark it up, but it performed well in what was a relativley narrow range. I use to like the arrows, but I think they now distract. They really don't enter into your three on three color scheme.
with 8 range you should only go for 6 or 8 point first targets with 8 to 10 point stops. For runners, use the ana supertrend stop.line, byt wait for it to close below, not just pierce. The jtRangeMarker is the only thing I added, as it shows where a newly forming bar might be headed. I keep a 20 range up as well to watch overall trend, but trade off the 8's.
I like anasupertrend alot and have been looking for confirming/combination of indicators that arrive at agreeing conclusions but each get there from a different methodology. I've tried many others, but this is a unique combo.
This picture is an initial set up interpretation of your chart. Now that you have given a template and tweaks, I'll rebuild and forward test some more. Second picture is your template2. Much easier on the eyes.
thanks for you thread.
The following 2 users say Thank You to rpm123 for this post:
rpm123, great post and nice pics. Keep updating this thread with your YM tweaks and results. With all the charts I continue to notice the FTZ_SharkTrend MA line. I am looking at a way to scale in and out along the consistent colored MA line or at least continuation trades using the anaSuperTrend. Tiberius
The following user says Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
On the indicators and charts, which one gives you the background colors of sell, buy on the chart itself. I down loaded all the indicators and charts, have them all set up but for some reason I can not get the backgound on the chart trader itself for the two colors? Is there a setting I over looked?
The start of another great week. This strategy is a work-in-process. I presented the strategy on a 3 minute chart with 4 indicators. Three indicators to get you into the market, and those three and the SuperTrend to get you out. And then the continuation trade.
Last week, I was tweaking the indicators and playing with the charts. I was looking for better parameters for varying market conditions. Three indicators to aline for an entry and stay alined until exit. On a 3 minute chart this seems more difficult than a 30 minute chart. Or a range chart. The one theme that's present in all the charts is that the moving average element of FTZ_SharkTrend stays in the trade the longest while price action stalls or reverses the other two.
I want a simple strategy. I want this strategy to center around the trend, the FTZ_SharkTrend. I have deliberately tried to avoid two time frames in this thread; trading one against the longer time frame. I introduced the 30 minute chart and today I will post the 6E 18 range chart. Personally my trading style caters to the higher time frames and staying in the trade with the SharkTrend.That is what I am working with currently. All viewing members need to find their trading style and time frames.
Today on the 3 minute chart, I sim traded to noon with a tighter stop and I got stopped, 1 for 3. The trade I did live, I had a wider stop and stayed in the trade until the other two indicators stalled. I watched the 30 minute chart stay with the short trade all day.
To the attached images and on to Tuesday.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
As requested, and because I'm liking your system and approach and is very complementary to mine, I've attached my YM charts for the day. I've removed the SharkTrend arrows, I like the Supertrend ones best. I've used your two color schemes placing two TSI4JeffFromTMFT indicators on. The bar coloring from the ESFXtrader is great. On the 20 bar chart, the white bars are lining up nicely with trend change. On the 8 bar chart it more often signifies congestion. The coloring in general is quick to see, reassuring in a trade, and confirming, when you take an anaSuperTrend trade in the 'grey' zone.
The anaSuperTrend (my all time favorite indicator) was 4 for 4 on the 20 bar chart and 6 for 21 on the 8 bar chart. I'm still studying that more closely to see how using the other indicators might have helped me stay out of the bad ones and in the good ones longer. (My first target is generally no longer than the chart's bar length, often smaller. But had some great runners today, on both charts, in what was a pretty narrow daytime range day of 83 points.
One note that you may already know, you can put harder, easier to see stop lines on anaSuperTrend (as I did on the 8 bar chart) with formatting. I like the dotted line for flow, but the horizontal dash for placing trailing stops more easily. Picture included too.
You mention in your post that the FTZ_SharkTrend colored dot moving average is keeping you in your trades longer. Do you wait for the dot to 'close'? As I said I'm still studying how the other three indicators best work with the anaSuperTrend, for my style and range bars.
Thanks,
Patrick
The following 2 users say Thank You to rpm123 for this post:
Thanks Patrick for your post. Your information has given me more to think about on how to approach the trade. And another way to enter the trade is with the Supertrend, since the SuperTrend can be used as a stand alone strategy. I had left the SharkTrend arrows on the chart even though I wasn't using them. Indeed the SuperTrend arrows would have more value. Tuesday, I will put your YM charts up on the screen and use the ST arrows.
I was waiting for the SharkTrend dot to close. Especially to enter the trade. In retrospect when viewing the SharkTrend, if you stayed with the trade through the white bars and the neutral background, you can rack up some points. I need to find the balance between risk and reward with the SharkTrend. You have given me a new perspective to study tomorrow. Enter the trend with the SuperTrend and stay with the trade with the SharkTrend?
Thanks again Tiberius
The following user says Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Wow, thank you @Tiberius. A little more detail on my approach. I know most people watch a larger chart and trade a smaller chart, but I generally enter on the 20 bar chart, take off 10 quickly, and use the 8 bar chart to manage my runner. I use the 8 bar to manage my first target as well, in that if it goes 16 ticks against me, I might not stick around for my 30 tick catastrophe stop. I'm working on your same last question, getting out on what signal, or discretionaly - It's hard to ignore a long tail. I had paired anaSuperTrend with TSI Jeff TMFT indicator before, but I had never seen the other two you use, and they are very helpful visually. Don't forget to try the jtRangeMarker. It helps visualize the potential of a new range bar - up and down.
The following user says Thank You to rpm123 for this post:
Thanks Patrick for the update. I have your YM templates up on my trading screen. I have turned off the SharkTrend arrows and turned on the SuperTrend arrows. I am trying to understand all the bells and whistles in the SharkTrend and I colored the MA plots in the box of the indicator specs. I sim traded this morning: in with the SuperTrend, stayng with the SharkTrend, out when the SuperTrend arrow painted, hitting the ST stop.
Other than that I am watching the interplay of the indicators with a newer perspective. And I am also watching the YM and 6E.
Hi Fat Tails and zeller4, I understand from Sharky's Classroom that you coded the FTZ_SharkTrend indicator. FT being you, Fat Tails. And Z being you, zeller4. I am trying to understand the parameters (line items) of the indicators and how it relates to the plots on the chart, so I can tweak the indicator for the chart. If you have the inside scoop on the SharkTrend, I could use your help.
I attached an image of the FTZ_SharkTrend with the indicator plots. I will ask a series of questions with my interpretation of the answer and you can correct me if I am wrong. If I can guess correctly.
1) The dotted (dark cyan, maroon) EMA line on the chart? It is MA1 smoothed by MA2 in the "parameters"?
2) The solid (orange, green) line?? I have no idea what this is or how it calculates. Maybe ATR period? Multiplier?
3) The painted price bar? Like the SuperTrend....calculated from the ATR period and multiplier? Maybe MA1 and/or MA2?
4) The arrows?? Calculated like #3...the SuperTrend?
Thanks for your explanatory help........................Tiberius
Unfortunately, I have not coded this indicator. I have never named any indicator after myself, my head is not that big.
I think that @sharky or @zeller4 may have coded it. Probably they used some of my indicators or I may have even helped them with the code, but I have no clue, how the indicator works and I don't even have it installed on my machine.
If you post the indicator, I may have a look and answer some of your questions, but you may just as well directly address the author(s).
The following user says Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
Hi Jeff and TMFT, Maybe you can help me understand how the indicator specs relate to the plots on the chart so I can tweak the TSI. I will ask some questions about the line items on the parameters and slope sections of the indicator and you can correct me if I am wrong.
In the Parameters: as (shown) on the image..........
03. Signal Period: (20) period of the 06. MA Type (EMA)?
the chart histogram is the: 02. Long Period (14) smoothed by the 01. Short Period (7)? Both 06. MA Type (EMA)?
In the Slope: as (shown) on the image.......... This has to do with the colored line on the 07. the zero line?
The slope of the line in question is the: 02. MAPeriod1 (21) of MA1Type (EMA) smoothed by 04. MAPeriod2 (1) of MA2Type (none)? And of course the line paints as when 08. (Lime) is greater than .05 Angle (30); 09. (Red) is less than 05. Angle (30); and 10. (Yellow) is equal to .05 Angle (30)?
In short: I can tweak the indicator by changing the Long Period (MA1) smoothed by the Short Period (MA2)???
Thanks for any information that you can supply on how the TSI calculates.....................Tiberius
The parameters section deals specifically with the signal and histogram.........you might want to start with 12 short/26 long/9 signal........just like a MACD.......you can tweak it from there........some people like to cut those numbers in half to make it more sensitive.
The slope section deals specifically with the zeroline of the indicator.........it is a built in moving average.....or combination of moving averages if you like........the angle is the point that the slope changes color.......30 is a nice starting place BUT......again.....you can tweak it from there.
Hope that helps, Jeff
The following 3 users say Thank You to Jeff Castille for this post:
Exported using NT Version 7.0.1000.30
The True Strength Index was developed by William Blau and published in his book "Momentum, Direction and Divergence". This version of the TSI is an enhanced version of the NinjaTrader default indicator. It comes …
No colors so far for signal line and slope.
The following 4 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
The range bars look good, but you should probably compare to a 1 minute chart. Just look for a time frame such that the average true range on that time frame equals the range selected for the range chart.
The following user says Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
Thanks for your post and getting by back. Check out the image, I beleive this is what you mean. The 30 second chart has mostly an average of a 4 or 5 ATR. Is this what you mean?
Yes, this is what I meant. The Russell 2000 Index Fund has a small tick size, so a 4 range chart is a pretty fast chart, and it would approximately convert to a 30 sec or 1 min chart.
If you take an instrument with a larger ticksize, such as ES, a 4 range chart is rather equivalent to a 2 minute chart.
The following user says Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
I knew I would learn many "things" in the month of June. And maybe others would benefit also. My new computer system is only a few weeks old. Today with the IB data feed I created a 30 second and 4 range chart for IWM. I tried a 5 and 6 range chart but they didn't work. I attribute this to the NTv7 64 bit on this new computer. Because I went back to my old computer it they didn't work. And yesterday I got some good feedback from long-term members on the indicators. But I am journalizing.
With yesterday's information, I am reseting the parameters on the indicators. A reset for the KISS strategy. But an issue always with trading is the chop, the congestion. What I read yesterday is when the SuperTrend moves sideways...."watchout". Well anyhow, I posted several images and again, see the SharkTrend plot, in retrospect; can you make some points (money)? I say, yes. So, I am in a little transition to solidify the strategy. Today, I had a 10 minute trade on the TWM (short IWM) in my IRA account. It was chump change, but it was a win. I traded it off the 4 range IWM chart. So, KISS 1 is the SuperTrend and the SharkTrend with the TSI and CCI. I am going to watch the charts and then edit the rules.
KISS 2 is something new. I didn't want to inject it into this thread, but I am. I feel I must. In KISS 2, I am adding the SharkChop indicator. I am painting the bars with the shark and numbering them with the CCI. The TSI can be used as a plus to the background. Why am I doing this? Because I want to make points, and points is money. So I will discuss this alt. strategy in the days ahead. Stay tuned.
The following 3 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
I was wondering now that you've done some research with the authors of the different indicators if you can draw any conclusions as to if they are arriving to the same consensus approaching from different paths. Stated another way, are they really different, or similarly structured? Are they all momentum based or divergence or what? I've done alot of throwing indicators on charts to see if they work for me, but I am sad to admit, I do not always understand the logic, math, and method behind some of them. Any insights you've picked up along the way would be appreciated. thanks, Patrick
The following user says Thank You to rpm123 for this post:
Great post Patrick, When I read it last evening, I had an initial response of: these are the questions that need to be answered to build a strategy or to succeed with a strategy. Personally I need to know the logic, math and method behind the indicator. I read the NinjaScript of the SharkTrend, if I understand it, it is a double smoothed MA (MA line) (trend) with the SuperTrend (median calculated) (paint bar & arrows) (momentum & volatility); a 2 for 1. I need to reread the SharkChop, but it is a 3 in 1 indicator. Rubber band (chop), dbl stoch (cycle & divergence) and ZeroLag MA (trend). So together, 2 indicators = 5. Everything you need for a strategy is in these two. So longer trend, momentum, chop, divergence, and shorter trend.......KISS2.
So now that I have written the last paragraph; I have a greater understanding. Until I wrote it, I didn't think about it in those terms.
So now I need to qualify KISS1. SuperTrend (momentum & volatility); SharkTrend (longer trend), CCI (shorter trend) and TSI (momentum & divergence). I will need to study this more and quote this post again and post again. And lastly the anaSuperTrend is a great indy for entering a trade or a continuation trade. More Later................Tiberius
The following 2 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Pucker up fellow members. Ha ha. Well this morning, trying to trade a 30 second and/or 4 range chart is tough. I always fall back to a swing trade. So I am locked and loaded for just that. I have reset the indicators. And have attached the pure templates of KISS1 and KISS2.
The following 3 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Here are the templates for the e-mini or what I like the 6E. And again it is the intermediate trade. If there was a few candid thoughts from Sharky in Sharky's Classroom. "Find the trend and just go with it". "Sit back and relax". Actually I said these first but I don't have the copyright.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Hi trading fans. Yes it's Friday again. And I want to personally thank my dog for barking at 3:30 AM and not stopping. I couldn't find a plastic bag to put over her head. Turning me into a trading zombie for the morning. Couldn't put the orders in correctly so I quit for the day and week. It was a nice down day.
Okay the bottom line: I attached my desktop of charts for Monday morning. This is what I will trade live. I am a longer term trader. I will trade the 30 minute chart for IWM and the 18 range chart for the 6E (M6E). Triple blue: long, and triple red: short with a catastrophe stop. I will get some worthy progress in this thread with this strategy. "If I trade it, they will come!"
The following user says Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
at all.....we just have a RED zlema on the IWM...still not in a trade
6E in consolidation.....................waiting................see the SuperTrend stop is moving sideways. We have neutral bars and a neutral backgound, one could make a case for closing this trade. Only the zlema is BLUE.
The following user says Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Since the last post the 6E got stopped out. Indeed I watched the bars turn RED in the RED background, but the zlema never turned RED. After the stop out the market reversed and headed higher. So, so what? Well, this is a teaching thread and I am teaching myself and any body else that's aboard for the ride. I am a longer term trader and that is where my focus is now. They say 90% of the traders fail at their objective of success. Maybe these traders are more short term orient. This strategy is the triple colors but the colored zlema seems to have a higher weigh. Lastly I put a LMT order instead of a MKT order for the continuation trade....didn't execute.
The strategy is not discussing divergence, but there was divergence before price reversed back to the neutral zone.
The IWM trade: reversed back to the neutral zone off divergence, now back into profit on the close. Bottom line: zlema still RED.
A work in process........later.
The following user says Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Back from a long weekend. Your templates have changed considerably. Especially the SharkTrend. And the SuperTrend almost looks eliminated. I've read thru twice what I've missed, but I'm still a little confused.
1) Are you still using the SuperTrend and how?
2) The Shark trend is set up completly different in the panes, can you give a crash course on how to read, or direct me to the source?
Site Administrator Swing Trader Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
Posts: 49,754 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,299 given,
97,518
received
Hi,
Some of your recent posts read more like a trade journal than a method you are teaching. As you know, I firmly believe journals are crucial to success --- so nothing wrong with that. But, if you want to win the teaching methodology prize......
Good Day Patrick, I merged the two templates into one. You liked the template with the two different TSIs set at different parameters to color the background in two tones. This template has the TSI and SharkChop painting the backgrounds, the darker tone is the strongest part of the trade.
1) I removed the anaSuperTrend because the SharkTrend has a built-in SuperTrend as you can see in Image 1. So I decided to use this one. I look at the SharkTrend code and it's SuperTrend is coded to calculate the median of the price bar. Both are suppose to be the same.
2) The SharkTrend is the same in panel 1, the main focus is the zlema as before. The new (merged) feature is the SharkChop (image 2) in panel 2. The main focus of the SharkChop is the chop zone between the 40 & 60 lines. If the green and gold lines enter this zone and stay there....we have price consolidation. If the green and gold lines enter the chop zone and cross and exit the chop zone, we have a trend reversal. The minor focus is the SharkChop painting the background to two tone the TSI background indicating the strongest part of the trend.
+) Both the TSI and the stoch line in the SharkChop show divergence.
The strategy is still the triple color. I just added the SharkChop to help with interperting price action. I continue to see the SharkTrend zlema keeping one in the trade to conclusion.
Thanks for asking questions. Lets keep the Q&A going..................................Tiberius
Thanks. Will load the new .xml's and get them set up. You may need to do some more 'splaining tomorrow on that Sharktrend though. Or whatever that is in Panel 2. It's a blur. Thanks.
The 2 6E images are just examples of yesterday's afternoon into the evening and the morning price action. Of course I don't know the future. I was studing the charts and changed the range from 18 to 6 and created a 6 BetterRenko chart. Here is my story as an example of the strategy. At 2:23 PM on the range chart we got a triple RED, this got my attention. The red bar were flashing white on the uptick, so I decided to put a STPLMT order in under the lows of the forming price step. The execution was almost perfect on the 6 range chart but one bar premature on the renko chart.
It's mostly about the exit of a trade than the entrance. On this trade I do want to stick with the red zlema, but. See I said the word "but". As the trade progressed, I saw the TSI go neutral and the SharkChop dots start to pinch and the white price bar. Because the SharkTrend is set to "calculate on close"...false; the SuperTrend stop inside the SharkTrend is moving because the price bar median changes as the price bar expands. So I moved my stop forward but not backwards this time and I was stopped out to the tick. A 13 tick or pip trade.
My old adage of staying in the trade with the zlema. You be the judge. The 6 renko chart is still in the red zlema trade as I write this.
Quick run down on the SharkChop indy (ZSharkTrendStochChop) 2nd panel: The red line is the double stochastics. The top green line and bottom red line are OB/OS. The area between the 40 and 60 lines are the chop zone. The fat blue 50 line is the trend reversal line. The green and yellow dotted lines are the chop long and chop short lines. Lastly the large blue, yellow and red dotted line is the non lag MA trend line; parameters 1 - 6.
I have run out of "things" to write.....................later Tiberius
The following 4 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
Quote I found on futures.io (formerly BMT) on the ZiNonLagMA. "filter and split tick settings make a big difference. by decreasing filter and increasing split tick you'll get a lot more signals."
The following 2 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
after Tuesday's tidbit we had a pullback in trend. Maybe at the time one would think it was a tread change. But anyhow just after 11:00 AM, we got a triple RED again. Okay trading fans we know what this means. Again this is another example of this strategy. Also, all my readers know what I am thinking at this time. Yes, futures.io (formerly BMT) members and followers of my thread......................"stay with the trade with the zlema". So I stayed with this short and gathered 50 ticks. On the range chart the 50 ticks worked well, it was a beautiful thing. But looking at the better renko chart, 100 ticks was the result. I realize it was in real time and the future was unknown. Check out the images. My point is the SharkTrend zlema is a fascinating moving average and worth a second look and maybe the glue to this strategy.
The following 3 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
I got the Range V4 loaded up tonite and it looks good. I'll keep it up tomorrow with the version 2. That Shark Chop is an ornery looking thing, but I see it's doing a fine job. (Several jobs actually). Started rereading Sharky's thread too.
You've put together a Great combination of indies and interpretation/methodology. Thanks.
I put this version on a YM 8 range chart, chose to show the FTZ Shark trend arrows (red and blue), and added back the anaSuperTrend with default 2.168, 2,2 settings to get a nearest match. (white and black).
Coupla observations.
1) The Shark Trend did not print arrows at 9:03, 10:02, and 10:19 even though the stop lines printed.
2) The anaSuperTrend default of 1,3,3 is tighter than your set up, coupla earlier entries, but more frequent chop. The settings above match more closely.
3) Do you use the 1,2,3,4,5 counts or keep it simpler to 3 reds or 3 blues.
Great stuff and great day for these systems. Thanks again.
My Asian and European readers and followers of this strategy did very well. The image again demostrates this strategy. The Asian session caught a triple RED and the European session caught a triple BLUE. The triple BLUE was good for almost 100 ticks.
The following user says Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
The rules for the strategy are triple BLUE, long and triple RED, short. Everything else would be guidelines, but those belong to trading style and trading style belongs to you. Less is more that is why I removed the anaSuperTrend. But maybe it is of greater value than the SuperTrend built into the SharkTrend.
1) I know the arrows don't always print. I do not understand the SharkTrend 100%. Maybe there is another condition in the code that has to be met for the arrows to print.
2) I was setting the parameters wide enough on the SuperTrend to stay in the trade with the zlema. Chop, that's why I added the SharkChop indy, to supplement your trading style with this strategy. Maybe the anaST is the way to go.
3) I don't use the numbers as a rule. All the indies can paint the price bars and when I was playing with that, I set the numbers to print in panel 1 so to know what the ESFX CCI was doing. I believe ESFX says when you see the #5, exit the trade. That's the way ESFX trades his strategy which is different.
Less is more: That's why I don't need to see the TSI and CCI indies in the template. Just the painted background and painted price bar. A future version would make these indies invisible. And for the SharkChop indy, if you study the price action and the SharkChop, you can anticipate the "lines" in the indy. You will know what the lines will do if price moves higher or lower and that before it happens. It's like if you had the indy imprinted on your brain, your inner vision would plot the lines as the price action unfolds. The SharkChop is like a crutch you can throw away when you can read price action.
More or less: The chop lines show divergence and a trend change cross also. And they show rejection. Rejection off the chop lines and rejection off the center line. For me the double stoch shows divergence and cycles. That's why in a zlema trend the stoch will diverge and head higher only to be rejected in the center of the indy scale as price consolidates and the cycle leg is truncated. And lastly, I need to study the ZiNonLagMA in the SharkChop vs. the zlema in the SharkTrend to get a handle on this relationship. Maybe it's love at first sight.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
I posted my results in my journal. Working great. $700 before 12:30 and off to golf. Another 60 points if I had not golfed.
I added the anaSuperTrend with 1,3,3 settings, it's getting me in earlier, but on two occasions it got me out too early. So I boldly tried a new rule and re-entered on the 3 colors and it worked great. The three color system is also comforting and confirming when you've taken the earlier anaSuperTrend trade.
As I review the day with just your 3 color goggles and following just your rules and ignore the anaSuperTrend, it would have kept me from getting stopped out on the 2nd trade in the afternoon (when I was actually golfing, but marked up anyway), it would have kept me out of a couple 8+0 trades, those being about a wash. If I had not re-entered though, I would have missed some good runs. Going to keep them both on, but might start leaning your way.
I'm still looking how to take actionable steps with the Chop indicator. Do you have any insight?
Have you manually back tested a bit to see how your system works on certain types of days - narrow range, wide range, choppy, (obviously trending is good)?
Patrick, you did a fine job Friday as the YM was yielding the points. I saw YM's performance so I switched my attention to it also. The SuperTrend can be a great stand alone strategy or like yourself, you double it up with another strategy. I was thinking that the SuperTrend can also be an early alarm for a pending trade in the Triple Color strategy. Or how you were using the two together.
I have not back tested the strategy at all. Just forward testing. I have been working on a Triple Color strategy for a while, but as of June 1st, I settled on the SharkTrend zlema as the ema for the strategy. And of course I have the variations of the Triple Color as this is a work in progress.
I wasn't using any other rules for the Triple Color strategy. On Friday when I was playing with the 4 renko YM I was using the numbers 1-5. I figured when you get to 5 the trade was over or almost over.
Next week will be a big week for this strategy because I am really zoned into it with the charts. Studying the price action and the colors with laser sharp attention.
Another possibility of just using the SuperTrend is that you get whip sawed. And that is why the SharkChop may be of help. The gold and green dotted lines are the chop lines on the SharkChop indy. The chop zone is between the 40 and 60 lines. If the chop lines cross the 50 line than we have a trend reversal as long as the lines continue to exit the chop zone. If there is a 50 line rejection and the lines exit the chop zone, we have a continuation trade. If chop lines stay in the chop zone than price is consolidating. The least likely is the chop lines will plot wider swings inside the chop as price chops while in trend, a whip sawed sloped trend. The best triple color trade is when the chop lines paint the background, price is trending.
And finally for the diamonds and arrows.................I'm not getting the logic behind their plotting. So right now for me they are a distraction. The more I post the more I learn myself.
Tiberius
The following 2 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
My journal shows I had a bad day, did not follow the indies, but here's the theoretical charts with the anaST marked up, and the zlema calc'd to, with the zlema coming out strong on both the 8 and 20 range charts. Good stuff.
The following 2 users say Thank You to rpm123 for this post:
Even though JW used it as support and resistence, stop placement as well as trend. I had the cloud on the chart, as to stay in the trade like the zlema. I was looking at it's utility in my trading style.
Like this chart that I just whipped up: it uses the SuperTrend to enter and stop placement. Just go in the direction of the Trigger Lines and zlema. Use the background also? The TriggerLines are like a cloud.
I was looking at this chart and one probably should shorten the parameters on the SuperTrend.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
The SuperTrend is a modification of the Chandelier Stop, which was tested by Charles LeBeau. For the chandelier stop the highest high is used and typically 2 average true ranges over the last n bars are deducted.
The Supertrend use the Median instead of the high, so you would not need to deduct 2 ATRs, but can try 1.5 ATRs over a few bars. If you apply this indicator to a range chart, your average true range is always the range that was selected for the chart. So you have replaced the idea of a volatility based stop with a stop that uses a fixed offset from the median. This is not what the SuperTrend was designed for.
To catch the original idea of a volatility based stop on a range chart, you would have to calculate volatility from a secondary bar series via a multi-timeframe indicator. This will be available soon.
If you look at the SuperTrend applied to a 5 min chart (time-based) it does work quite well, if you give it a little wiggle room, see chart 1 attached.
You could also try something like the BrainTrend1, which is attached to the highest low from which it dedcuts a fraction of volatility, but uses the stochastics to identify trend changes, see chart 2 attached.
The following 4 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
@Fat Tails . Wow. Learn something new every time I log on. I've been using anaSuperTrend on Range bars and its worked better than any other system I've had. Maybe mostly because Range bars let me "see" better than anything else I've used. Will look for the BrainTrend1 and cannot wait for your new indicator to be available soon.
The following user says Thank You to rpm123 for this post:
Actually, when you use the Supertrend on a range chart, there is a volatiliy component. But it is not the ATR, it is the period of the median. Consider the multiplier of the ATR as a fixed amount for the offset, whereas the increase of the period for the median allows you to catch momentum, which is a projy for volatility. So, whether with a fixed offset or an increased median period, the SuperTrend can definitely be used on range charts. But it gives slightly different results from its application on time based charts.
The following 3 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
The median is the middle of a distribution: half the scores are above the median and half are below the median. The median is less sensitive to extreme scores than the mean and this makes it a better measure than the mean for highly skewed distributions. The median income is usually more informative than the mean income, for example.
The sum of the absolute deviations of each number from the median is lower than is the sum of absolute deviations from any other number. Click here for an example.
The mean, median, and mode are equal in symmetric distributions. The mean is typically higher than the median in positively skewed distributions and lower than the median in negatively skewed distributions, although this may not be the case in bimodal distributions. Click here for examples.
Computation of Median
When there is an odd number of numbers, the median is simply the middle number. For example, the median of 2, 4, and 7 is 4.
When there is an even number of numbers, the median is the mean of the two middle numbers. Thus, the median of the numbers 2, 4, 7, 12 is (4+7)/2 = 5.5.
Mean, median, and mode are three kinds of "averages". There are many "averages" in statistics, but these are, I think, the three most common, and are certainly the three you are most likely to encounter in your pre-statistics courses, if the topic comes up at all.
The "mean" is the "average" you're used to, where you add up all the numbers and then divide by the number of numbers. The "median" is the "middle" value in the list of numbers. To find the median, your numbers have to be listed in numerical order, so you may have to rewrite your list first. The "mode" is the value that occurs most often. If no number is repeated, then there is no mode for the list.
The "range" is just the difference between the largest and smallest values.
Find the mean, median, mode, and range for the following list of values:
13, 18, 13, 14, 13, 16, 14, 21, 13
Note that the mean isn't a value from the original list. This is a common result. You should not assume that your mean will be one of your original numbers.
The median is the middle value, so I'll have to rewrite the list in order:
13, 13, 13, 13, 14, 14, 16, 18, 21
There are nine numbers in the list, so the middle one will be the (9 + 1) ÷ 2 = 10 ÷ 2 = 5th number:
The largest value in the list is 21, and the smallest is 13, so the range is 21 – 13 = 8.
mean: 15
median: 14
mode: 13
range: 8
Note: The formula for the place to find the median is "( [the number of data points] + 1) ÷ 2", but you don't have to use this formula. You can just count in from both ends of the list until you meet in the middle, if you prefer. Either way will work.
Find the mean, median, mode, and range for the following list of values:
1, 2, 4, 7
The mean is the usual average: (1 + 2 + 4 + 7) ÷ 4 = 14 ÷ 4 = 3.5
The median is the middle number. In this example, the numbers are already listed in numerical order, so I don't have to rewrite the list. But there is no "middle" number, because there are an even number of numbers. In this case, the median is the mean (the usual average) of the middle two values: (2 + 4) ÷ 2 = 6 ÷ 2 = 3
The mode is the number that is repeated most often, but all the numbers appear only once. Then there is no mode.
The largest value is 7, the smallest is 1, and their difference is 6, so the range is 6.
mean: 3.5
median: 3
mode: none
range: 6
The list values were whole numbers, but the mean was a decimal value. Getting a decimal value for the mean (or for the median, if you have an even number of data points) is perfectly okay; don't round your answers to try to match the format of the other numbers.
Find the mean, median, mode, and range for the following list of values:
8, 9, 10, 10, 10, 11, 11, 11, 12, 13
The median is the middle value. In a list of ten values, that will be the (10 + 1) ÷ 2 = 5.5th value; that is, I'll need to average the fifth and sixth numbers to find the median:
(10 + 11) ÷ 2 = 21 ÷ 2 = 10.5
The mode is the number repeated most often. This list has two values that are repeated three times.
The largest value is 13 and the smallest is 8, so the range is 13 – 8 = 5.
mean: 10.5
median: 10.5
modes: 10 and 11
range: 5
While unusual, it can happen that two of the averages (the mean and the median, in this case) will have the same value.
Note: Depending on your text or your instructor, the above data set may be viewed as having no mode (rather than two modes), since no single solitary number was repeated more often than any other. I've seen books that go either way; there doesn't seem to be a consensus on the "right" definition of "mode" in the above case. So if you're not certain how you should answer the "mode" part of the above example, ask your instructor before the next test.
About the only hard part of finding the mean, median, and mode is keeping straight which "average" is which. Just remember the following:
mean: regular meaning of "average"
median: middle value
mode: most often
(In the above, I've used the term "average" rather casually. The technical definition of "average" is the arithmetic mean: adding up the values and then dividing by the number of values. Since you're probably more familiar with the concept of "average" than with "measure of central tendency", I used the more comfortable term.)
A student has gotten the following grades on his tests: 87, 95, 76, and 88. He wants an 85 or better overall. What is the minimum grade he must get on the last test in order to achieve that average?
The unknown score is "x". Then the desired average is:
(87 + 95 + 76 + 88 + x) ÷ 5 = 85
Multiplying through by 5 and simplifying, I get:
87 + 95 + 76 + 88 + x = 425
346 + x = 425
x = 79
He needs to get at least a 79 on the last test.
The following 3 users say Thank You to Tiberius for this post:
On a chart you have at least five different options to calculate a median. Let us for example take a lookback period of 7 bars.
(1) Take the seven bar high and the seven bar low and calculate (high + low)/2. This is a statistical 2-point-median.
(2) Median of the Closes: Take the seven closes and calculate a median from those seven closes. This is a statistical 7-point-median.
(3) Median of all the data points the bars contain: Take the seven opens, seven highs, seven lows and seven closes and calculate a statistical median from 28 data points.
(4) TPO - Median: Take every single tick from the seven bars and then calculate the median from all the single ticks (each tick can be observed up to seven times, depending on whether it is contained in one of the seven bars).
(5) Volume-weighted TPO Median: Proceed as under (4) but count each tick k times, if k is the volume of the bar it belongs to.
The medians (2) -> blue, (4) -> red and (5) -> green are shown in the chart below. The anaSuperTrend currently uses the Median(2), but it can easily be recoded to use (4) or (5) as well. Note that the median (5) deviates from the other medians. That can be explained by the fact that it is the only one that has a volume component.
The following 2 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
It has a second reverse OnBarUpdate coded within OnBarUpdate. This will increase CPU time by a factor 100 or 1000, depending on the chart lookback period, don't know. Try it out and put it on your chart, I am afraid to do so.
The following user says Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
