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Hi @Tiberius, you asked me a little while ago to do a chart for Apple, so sorry I took so long. Below is the monthly, weekly and daily charts. I've included the weekly with both the monthly and the daily charts but with different time scales, as I think it's necessary to see the trendline in full as it goes back to 2009.
Personally I think AAPL looks very interesting currently, as it looks like it wants to test the long term trendline - which is currently around the 355 area. But it is also just above an area of strong support which could limit the current down move.
The monthly chart shows the steady volume going into AAPL over the last two years. Which is not the same as the parabolic move in 2007 imo. So this current top isn't a blow off top like that was, as the volume has grown steadily over the last two years - so there is a lot less speculative money which I think is a good sign.
Below are my charts
"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
I think it's what we need for the market to rally as Apple makes up around 12% of the Nasdaq 100 I believe, hence the up day today in the NDX. So part of the reason for the recent sell off has been Apples weakness. If Apple manages to hold it's support and long term trendline then I personally think that will be a big positive for the broad market because of it's market weighting.
Moves in the indexes apparently account for roughly 70% of individual stocks intra-day moves. But as Apple is one of the major drivers of the index itself, it's actually quite important for all stocks at the moment IMO.
"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
I have stumbled across a very interesting tool created a few years ago that separates the volume into two parts. The large players and the small players. It's very complicated to explain how it's done, so here's the link to the website Effective Volume - Trading EV and there's a book as well.
I don't quite understand it myself yet. But am going to give the book a go to try and get my head round it, as it seems like it could be very useful for trading stocks.
I also found another really good free website called ChartMill.Com | Stock Screeners and Stock Charts for Europe and United States Markets that has it incorporated into the advanced charting bit of the site. So I experimented for a while and then I tried it for AAPL. The result is interesting as it shows that AAPL is has been dominated by large institutional money over the last year, but they are now currently lightening their positions. I assumed that you would expect to see institutional buying around the 200 day moving average, and this was the case when it got close last September 2010 and also when it dipped below in June 2011. However the big money did not participate in October 2011 and has now started to sell off some of their positions and has actually crossed below the small players line. I don't know if this is significant yet as my understanding of the tool is very new and I need to read more about it. But it seems like AAPL is at a crucial point here at the 200 day moving average and needs the large players to step in again. Below is the chart:
"Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill" – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
