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AAPL - Apple Inc
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AAPL - Apple Inc

  #241 (permalink)
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Just some personal thoughts about AAPL. Their market share dominance could be declining as Samsung and other competitors overtake plus their products are becoming derivative of themselves with annoying bugs. Unless they come out with crazy new developments such as rollable paper thin computers such as seen in "Red Planet" (before IBM does , lol) their meteoric rise and growth may not be continued.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFeVHOmEvi8&t=2m42s

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  #242 (permalink)
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Cloudy View Post
Just some personal thoughts about AAPL. Their market share dominance could be declining as Samsung and other competitors overtake plus their products are becoming derivative of themselves with annoying bugs. Unless they come out with crazy new developments such as rollable paper thin computers such as seen in "Red Planet" (before IBM does , lol) their meteoric rise and growth may not be continued.

Mars Red Planet (Graeme Revell) - YouTube

Yeah I agree Samsung seem to have the momentum at them moment at least as far as products are concerned. iPad Mini seems over-priced for aged technology and demand has seemed lower than even Apple's predictions.

Maybe Apple TV will improve their fortunes in 2013 but whatever happens I'm keeping a close eye on it!

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  #243 (permalink)
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About that Paradox


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I have written before about the ease with which the producers of charts (including me) can deceive, even if not trying to do so. Some of the most common ways include picking a starting point for a chart that maximizes a particular point of view, using price instead of total return for longer periods, and putting lines together on a chart without comparing them on a percentage basis. Today’s topic is an example of the latter.

In a given day, you probably see lots of charts with multiple axes. Most all of them give you a distorted view of the world. You might get an idea that something is going up when something else is going up — and down when it is going down. That can be of interest, but multiple-axes charts, which are popular with investment professionals and bloggers, give false indications.

One example can be found in the top panel above, which was published by Zero Hedge with the title “The iParadox.” The lower panel shows the same intraday information on a percentage basis. One gives the sense that Apple has just diverged from the S&P 500 for the first time since the end of October. The other gives an accurate representation.

AAPL is, of course, endlessly fascinating, not to mention maddening for portfolio managers who are at risk of having their investment process distorted by it, as I wrote about in April.

There are plenty of paradoxes to be found in the analysis of the stock and its market action — a look at the year-to-date action is below — but throwing things on a chart and letting the software line them up for you without a sense of magnitude probably will get you headed in the wrong direction. (Chart: Bloomberg terminal.)

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Courtesy research puzzle pix by tom brakke

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  #244 (permalink)
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Will it finally close below 500 after a long time ? It has flirted with this level earlier, but found buyers every time and bounced.

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  #245 (permalink)
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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Investors: $50 Billion Vanishes in 2 Hours - Insider Monkey


Quoting 
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) had some positive momentum during Wednesday's trading day in anticipation of the company's quarterly earnings report. But once the market closed and the report was released, the momentum went went 180 degrees in reverse - and in an accelerated fashion. During the day, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) rose nearly 2 percent to close at $514.01 per share. But after the report did nothing for analysts, after-hours trading has been a disaster.

As of 6 p.m. ET - two hours after the close of market trading - the stock plummeted 10.7 percent to $458.78 per share. What in the world happened?

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced that the company posted a record quarter in terms of sales, but profits got pinched due to heavy sales of lower-priced devices, as well as increased production costs. The company reported selling 47.8 million iPhones in the quarter, which matched analysts' estimates. And another piece of good news - after several warnings that suggested that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) would suffer a drop in profits for the first time 10 years - the company did report that it posted a profit gain of $14 million over the same quarter a year earlier.

Overall, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported profits of $13.1 billion or $13.81 per share (the EPS missing last year's number by 6 cents). This marks the second time in the last 40 quarters that Apple failed to record year-over-year growth of at least 10 percent. However, sales rose more than 17 percent to $54.5 billion.

So why the drop? Well, first, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced its profit margin dropped to 38.6 percent, which is an amazing drop of more than 6 percentage points from the same period in 2011. And on the earnings call, Apple estimated profit margin for the current quarter would be even lower - between 37.5 and 38.5 percent - with sales between $41 billion to $43 billion. Those numbers are both well short of Wall Street estimates.

Just usual Apple conservatism, or something more?

And a telling comment came from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) CFO Peter Oppenheimer as he gave that guidance. While Aplle has historically be very conservative in its guidance, Oppenheimer said that the company has changed the way it gives guidance. While before it would set bars that it would certainly clear, now the company "reflects what Apple is likely to achieve."

From $54 billion in actual revenue in one quarter, to guidance for $12 billion less in the very next quarter? And profit margins that were in the mid-40s down to the upper-30s? This might be summed in one word: Ouch.

Now that you check out the report and see the numbers, what do you think? Is the drop in the Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price justified? Is the company now priced more accurately, or is this time to buy? Give us your comments below and start a discussion about this report and the company.


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  #246 (permalink)
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AAPL's Weltanschauung (view of the world)

From a subscription service, with thanks.


Quoting 
Apple Reports Record Results


2013-01-23 16:30 ET - News Release


47.8 Million iPhones Sold; 22.9 Million iPads Sold


CUPERTINO, Calif. -- (Business Wire)

Apple® today announced financial results for its 13-week fiscal 2013 first quarter ended December 29, 2012. The Company posted record quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion and record quarterly net profit of $13.1 billion, or $13.81 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $46.3 billion and net profit of $13.1 billion, or $13.87 per diluted share, in the 14-week year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 38.6 percent compared to 44.7 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 61 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

Average weekly revenue was $4.2 billion in the quarter compared to $3.3 billion in the year-ago quarter.

The Company sold a record 47.8 million iPhones in the quarter, compared to 37 million in the year-ago quarter. Apple also sold a record 22.9 million iPads during the quarter, compared to 15.4 million in the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 4.1 million Macs, compared to 5.2 million in the year-ago quarter. Apple sold 12.7 million iPods in the quarter, compared to 15.4 million in the year-ago quarter.

Apple’s Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $2.65 per share of the Company’s common stock. The dividend is payable on February 14, 2013, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 11, 2013.

“We’re thrilled with record revenue of over $54 billion and sales of over 75 million iOS devices in a single quarter,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO. “We’re very confident in our product pipeline as we continue to focus on innovation and making the best products in the world.”

“We’re pleased to have generated over $23 billion in cash flow from operations during the quarter,” said Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO. “We established new all-time quarterly records for iPhone and iPad sales, significantly broadened our ecosystem, and generated Apple’s highest quarterly revenue ever.”

Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2013 second quarter:

• revenue between $41 billion and $43 billion

• gross margin between 37.5 percent and 38.5 percent

• operating expenses between $3.8 billion and $3.9 billion

• other income/(expense) of $350 million

• tax rate of 26%

Apple will provide live streaming of its Q1 2013 financial results conference call beginning at 2:00 p.m. PST on January 23, 2013 at www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/earningsq113. This webcast will also be available for replay for approximately two weeks thereafter.


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  #247 (permalink)
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What a set up, and technical signal I have received to short apple.
After all these years in this business: learning the technicals, the charts, the psychology and I ignored it... embarrassing.

Last week as I go to get a hair cut, the girl that washes my hair tells me she always buys aapl.
Every time it goes down, she buys and she makes a little.
I asked her if she is not afraid from some big correction and obviously..."no, because its apple it always goes up".

I should have shorted it....This was a signal from G-d.

Missed a tip of a life time, for everything else there is master card.

M

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  #248 (permalink)
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It's hanging in a low volume area.

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  #249 (permalink)
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AAPL may be the only stock (or instrument for that matter) I consider on its fundamentals because of its importance. IMO the fundamentals haven't changed since last September.

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  #250 (permalink)
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For newbies and any who happen by, if any of my posts on this thread aren't clear, I'd still short AAPL until the cows come home.

To further clarify I don't personally invest in tech stocks anymore, having lost a fortune believing one tech or another was going to change the world (now having accepted Marshall McLuhan as one of the few folks in the last century who made sense). Tech eventually gets transformed into art and with the demise of what's his name the process with AAPL has begun.

This is my analyst hat. We know what live artists make.

I'd rather invest in dead artists than tech.

That said, I respect traders in tech who make a bundle when I didn't see it coming (assuming those traders haven't been arrested in Athens lately)

Call me when you do it twice.


Last edited by bnichols; January 27th, 2013 at 05:17 PM. Reason: No clue
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