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AMD - Advanced Micro Devices
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AMD - Advanced Micro Devices

  #11 (permalink)
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Just found this thread. I was actually in this move from 2.25. AMD came up in a scan of 52 week lows, and it was completing the D leg of both a Gartley and a Bat pattern on the weekly. I got in after the morning star candle completed. Not the prettiest, but they fit the rules. Final target is the .382 retracement, and right now my trail stop is under the 34 EMA at 2.84.

After the massive move this week, and with only 1 week until expiration, it is a perfect time to sell some credit. I'm selling the $4 calls naked with a stop of the underlying at $4.

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  #12 (permalink)
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AMD: Patience Could Pay Off, Fair Value Price Target Moved To $3.50

Summary

Model updated for restructuring charges and lower growth outlook.
My assumptions in the Levered Returns valuation models yield a fair value per share of $3.50, still 31% above its October 16th closing price of $2.67.
AMD represents a significant opportunity for long-term investors.
Q3 Earnings Announcement
  • Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) announced its Q3 earnings on October 16th, which missed analyst estimates, and the company decreased its Q4 outlook. It was not a press release investors cheer for. However, I still believe the company has long-term growth potential as AMD applies its technical expertise in CPUs and GPUs and enters other processor applications. In addition to diversifying its offerings, AMD continues to lower its cost structure.

Updated Levered Returns Valuation Model

I have updated my Levered Return's 5-year discounted cash flow "DCF" analysis shown below (prior analysis can be found here). Key differences include:

Updated for Q3 results.
  • Projected revenue growth lowered to reach $5,691 million by fiscal year 2018 ($6,557 prior).
  • Projected EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) lowered to reach $580 million by fiscal year 2018 ($610 prior).
  • Slightly lowered the company's long-term terminal growth rate from 3.0% to 2.5%.
  • Adjusted the equity waterfall for the $57 million forecasted restructuring charges.

AMD: Patience Could Pay Off, Fair Value Price Target Moved To $3.50 - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) | Seeking Alpha

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  #13 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
Summary

Model updated for restructuring charges and lower growth outlook.
My assumptions in the Levered Returns valuation models yield a fair value per share of $3.50, still 31% above its October 16th closing price of $2.67.
AMD represents a significant opportunity for long-term investors.
Q3 Earnings Announcement
  • Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) announced its Q3 earnings on October 16th, which missed analyst estimates, and the company decreased its Q4 outlook. It was not a press release investors cheer for. However, I still believe the company has long-term growth potential as AMD applies its technical expertise in CPUs and GPUs and enters other processor applications. In addition to diversifying its offerings, AMD continues to lower its cost structure.

Updated Levered Returns Valuation Model

I have updated my Levered Return's 5-year discounted cash flow "DCF" analysis shown below (prior analysis can be found here). Key differences include:

Updated for Q3 results.
  • Projected revenue growth lowered to reach $5,691 million by fiscal year 2018 ($6,557 prior).
  • Projected EBITDA (Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) lowered to reach $580 million by fiscal year 2018 ($610 prior).
  • Slightly lowered the company's long-term terminal growth rate from 3.0% to 2.5%.
  • Adjusted the equity waterfall for the $57 million forecasted restructuring charges.

AMD: Patience Could Pay Off, Fair Value Price Target Moved To $3.50 - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) | Seeking Alpha

I wonder if you outright believe these things that you post or if you evaluate them critically.

Nowhere in this article dated Oct 21/2014 does this blogger state that they have revised their forecast down from their previous one...

But that is what happened... Just 11 days earlier this is what this blogger (who doesn't even identify him/herself) said this

AMD: Recent Sell-Off Provides Opportunity For Value Investors - $4 Fair Value Price Target - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NYSE:AMD) | Seeking Alpha

Eleven days earlier the forecast was for $4.00 and now he dropped it to $3.50....hmmmm

Let us see how his forecasting has changed from Oct10 to Oct 21

Forecast ........................ Stock price ............ Sales growth ............ Margin ............ Net Operating profit

Oct 10/14 ........................ $4.00 ........................ 9.3% ..................... 8.7% ............... 208
Oct 21/14 ........................ $3.50 ........................ 4.0% ..................... 8.7% ............... 198

Well he/she dropped the target by over 10%....cut the sales growth by over half but somehow maintained the same margin and only a slight decrease in Operating profit even though there is over a 50% decline in forecast sales.


I also love this statement: AMD continues to lower its cost structure.

Really???? If I made such a statement it would be made on an observation of quarterly financial reports showing costs steadily dropping...or at least a negative slope

let us make our own analysis of their costs


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I don't see a continuing drop in costs.....they look pretty constant to me.


When evaluating a Blogger analyst....especially one who does not reveal their name.... check out previous articles

Here is one on Clorox

Have Clorox Ride The Pine: Editable Valuation Model Included | Musings of a Banker

this is dated July 9/14 and here is a quote of the conclusions


Quoting 
Clorox is a respectable company that owns well recognized brands and delivers consistent cash flows. However, the company’s financial performance has lagged its public peers and currently trades at premium multiples. Applying an average to the Levered Returns models implies an intrinsic value of approximately $72.53 representing a 21.1% discount to Clorox’s latest trading price of $91.90 as of July 6th. I recommend value investors wait for a pull back before considering buying shares of Clorox at current prices.

Well here is a chart for Clorox

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I suppose in fairness he did pick a near top and it did pull back $6 but that is a far cry from the $20 pullback he suggests in his model...and even hanging onto that stock at $92.00 realizes a pretty good gain today.... I have to wonder if that model he uses still puts Fair value at $72.00

Here is another blog....this time on Kimberly Clarke

Hidden Value In Kimberly-Clark: Interactive Valuation Model | Musings of a Banker


Quoting 
Hidden Value In Kimberly-Clark: Interactive Valuation Model
Posted on July 4, 2014 by moabanker

Summary

Strong historical dividend growth for Kimberly-Clark, combined with no imminent threats, makes this tissue maker a strong buy at these levels. Levered Returns’ Gordon Growth Model provides the appropriate valuation check for Kimberly-Clark, implying a fair value of approximately $133. Applying my assumptions, Kimberly-Clark is 20.0% undervalued based on the July 1st close price of $111.52.

Well here is how good that prediction was in the short term

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well 10 days later that "strong buy" plummeted 10% and 4 months later it has climbed back to where it was at the time of the post.

Personally I am not overly impressed with this group...turns out to be a group of bankers(if they are bankers) making these predictions.

Conclusion

Long term forecasts are fanciful dreams IMHO... this blogging group does not have a great track record so I would not believe them very much...ESPECIALLY in this case with AMD where they changed their forecast after just 11 days.

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  #14 (permalink)
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@Underexposed I am just posting news and articles that pertain to different stocks. It is up to the user to make an informed opinion.

I don't believe or care about most, if I did I would make some commentary about it.

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tturner86 View Post
@Underexposed I am just posting news and articles that pertain to different stocks. It is up to the user to make an informed opinion.

I don't believe or care about most, if I did I would make some commentary about it.

Really...you don't care what you post here??? How useful is that?

there are many pertinent articles like this one form ZACKs

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Far more useful analysis and hard info.


Quoting 
Guidance

Management expects fourth-quarter 2014 revenues to decrease 13% sequentially, (+/- 3%), due to lower semi-custom revenues and a weak consumer PC environment. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 35%. Operating expenses are expected to be approximately $385.0 million and interest expense is expected to be approximately $46 million.

this runs contrary to the "forecast" of that blogger who predicts increasing growth...but that is only the management's view...{shrug}

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Underexposed View Post
Really...you don't care what you post here??? How useful is that?

Hey remain calm please. I also post news stories, whether I agree with them or not. If I have something to say I'll comment on it, otherwise I just post the link if it is relevant to the thread.

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Underexposed View Post
Really...you don't care what you post here??? How useful is that?

there are many pertinent articles like this one form ZACKs

Stock Market Quotes | Stock Market Quotes and Symbols

Far more useful analysis and hard info.



this runs contrary to the "forecast" of that blogger who predicts increasing growth...but that is only the management's view...{shrug}

I guess I should have said I don't care whether you think it is the right news article or not. If you do not like what is being posted then post your own articles.

I am posting articles that catch my eye that other traders may be interested in, Whether they are fluff or not, I don't care and I am not gonna make that judgement for another trader. Each trader needs to learn how to read between the lines and gather what they need to make a decision.

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