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trading management
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trading management

  #11 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
mount vernon, new york
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: think or swim
Favorite Futures: emini
 
Posts: 11 since Mar 2016
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Gambit88 View Post
just thinking out loud here...

In general, you need a system that has positive expectancy.

meaning the amount of time you win times you average winner exceeds the amount of time you lose and your average loser.

After that, its about managing your risk of ruin on sizing.

So in response to your first post, I think it depends on your trading strategy...

3 to 1 odds is relative scenario of winning i'm looking for.

Selling puts costs alot of money when it comes to Buying power, and i don't have that.

so i'm looking for other ways. any recommendations?

I see a bunch of downloads here in the forum, but how do i apply it after tweaking it to my standards a little?

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  #12 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT8,NT7,TWS,FOREX.COM app
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers, NinjaTrader Brokerage FOREX.COM, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: The one I'm creating in the present....ES, ZF, ZN, ZB, FX pairs
 
Blash's Avatar
 
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panlover215 View Post
I understand only what i can afford to lose, yes i get it.
I'm fine with data, i've been learning different indicators, oscillators etc...

But what i'm really seeking for is a method that can atleast give me 3 to 1 odds. I saw a post from a member in regards to able trend. Have you tried it?
do you have any recommondations? i use think or swim


I have not tried that system, sorry. For me, I don't use indicators (I used to) that are a derivative of price meaning a formula calculated off OHLC and vol. I tend to just use market generated info. For example my post here and its Excel spreadsheet....

https://futures.io/bonds-interest-rates-trading/36324-zf-5-year-t-notes-notes.html#post503445

So my recommendation would be to study purely market generated data....ie VPOC gap VAH VAL ONL ONH VWAP IBH IBL etc

As well as auction levels....

All the best my friend......

Let me know if I can help in your quest for your high probability edge.

Ron

It is an axiomatic fact that while you meditate you are speaking with your own spirit. In that state of mind you put certain questions to your spirit and the spirit answers: the light breaks forth and the reality is revealed.
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
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  #13 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
mount vernon, new york
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: think or swim
Favorite Futures: emini
 
Posts: 11 since Mar 2016
Thanks: 0 given, 6 received



Blash View Post
I have not tried that system, sorry. For me, I don't use indicators (I used to) that are a derivative of price meaning a formula calculated off OHLC and vol. I tend to just use market generated info. For example my post here and its Excel spreadsheet....

https://futures.io/bonds-interest-rates-trading/36324-zf-5-year-t-notes-notes.html#post503445

So my recommendation would be to study purely market generated data....ie VPOC gap VAH VAL ONL ONH VWAP IBH IBL etc

As well as auction levels....

All the best my friend......

Let me know if I can help in your quest for your high probability edge.

Ron

Ok so i'm reading over this. Give me an example of an execution you would do?
Remember i'm an options guy. What exactly is it that i look for based upon the market generated data?

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  #14 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT8,NT7,TWS,FOREX.COM app
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers, NinjaTrader Brokerage FOREX.COM, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: The one I'm creating in the present....ES, ZF, ZN, ZB, FX pairs
 
Blash's Avatar
 
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panlover215 View Post
Ok so i'm reading over this. Give me an example of an execution you would do?

Remember i'm an options guy. What exactly is it that i look for based upon the market generated data?


Driving now (at stop light) to pick up the kids from school. Wife gets back today from a business trip and I have to clean up the mess before she returns or I'm dead. lol.... But I will have time tomorrow and on the weekend.

Ron


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It is an axiomatic fact that while you meditate you are speaking with your own spirit. In that state of mind you put certain questions to your spirit and the spirit answers: the light breaks forth and the reality is revealed.
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
Reply With Quote
 
  #15 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
mount vernon, new york
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: think or swim
Favorite Futures: emini
 
Posts: 11 since Mar 2016
Thanks: 0 given, 6 received


Blash View Post
Driving now (at stop light) to pick up the kids from school. Wife gets back today from a business trip and I have to clean up the mess before she returns or I'm dead. lol.... But I will have time tomorrow and on the weekend.

Ron


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

i'm sure you will.....i just hope i understand it.

btw good luck with the cleaning. mine went away for the weekend with her sisters, so i have till sunday to let the mess build up.

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  #16 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT8,NT7,TWS,FOREX.COM app
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers, NinjaTrader Brokerage FOREX.COM, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: The one I'm creating in the present....ES, ZF, ZN, ZB, FX pairs
 
Blash's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,560 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 4,527 given, 2,340 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


panlover215 View Post
i'm sure you will.....i just hope i understand it.



btw good luck with the cleaning. mine went away for the weekend with her sisters, so i have till sunday to let the mess build up.


lol... Lucky you

Ron


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It is an axiomatic fact that while you meditate you are speaking with your own spirit. In that state of mind you put certain questions to your spirit and the spirit answers: the light breaks forth and the reality is revealed.
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
Reply With Quote
 
  #17 (permalink)
Elite Member
Montreal, Qc, Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers/Kinetick
Favorite Futures: ETF
 
Virtuose1's Avatar
 
Posts: 38 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 114 given, 27 received

I'd suggest that the important question should rather be how to protect capital. Stop loss should only be one of the 20+ ways to do so, and in my views, one of the least effective. Better ways would be to use a small portion of your capital in multiple non corrolated systems. According to Kaufmann latest book, and that's likely what I'll do eventually, stop losses should not be used. To answer clearly the question, on average, my systems have stop loss around 3.5%.

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  #18 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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panlover215 View Post
I've read books on put selling based upon a 102030 reversal in options.
but after researching and back testing, this seems to be good half of the time.

I'm looking for a solid back tested proven methodology of trading. ie charting, technicals, etc.

I've seen a members post on a similiar abletrend charting, and i was wondering whether that is a good set up?

I've lost my job for several years now. and i'm looking to do this to generate an income to survive like a normal salary.
any ideas? recommendations? tested and true methods?

I don't think you will find a tried proven tested method in the public domain. Trading isn't like engineering.
Some of the prior post have covered many on the questions you should answer so no point repeating them.

Since you have experience trading options, let's say someone came to you and said:
"I would like a tried proven and tested system for trading options. What is it and what is the the correct win loss aim to aim for"?"

Ron (Blash) gave you a good idea for using options as stops and since you know options using that knowledge for futures is a point of leverage. Then use other things from your past and your personality as inputs in developing a plan. What did you use to do? What did you study? What strategies of other traders appealed to you and what did you like about them? (read Market Wizards for a sampling).

I hope it helps,

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.
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  #19 (permalink)
Elite Member
Merced Ca USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TDA
Broker/Data: Datek :)
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shortride's Avatar
 
Posts: 13 since Apr 2013
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I trade /es mostly, it trades almost 23/5. All of my entry/exits are based on Fib. retracements. Not that the exact numbers (23.6 for example) work perfectly but at least you are always on the correct side of the trend.

Move, retracement, REretracement is the secret of my success and as far as I am concerned the only thing that works.

“Enter by the narrow gate; for wide is the gate and broad is the way that leads to destruction, and there are many who go in by it. Because narrow is the gate and difficult is the way which leads to life, and there are few who find it.
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