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SpaceX
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SpaceX

  #271 (permalink)
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  #272 (permalink)
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SpaceX Will Fly Astronauts Before Boeing: NASA

https://www.investopedia.com/news/spacex-will-fly-astronauts-boeing-nasa/?partner=YahooSA&yptr=yahoo

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  #273 (permalink)
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/air-force-is-looking-into-elon-musks-pot-smoking-source.html

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  #274 (permalink)
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TheVerge: SpaceX loses the center core of its Falcon Heavy rocket due to choppy seas
It landed on its drone ship, but the ocean was too rough to keep it there


I had heard it landed, but not that it then fell off the barge in high seas!

https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/15/18311945/spacex-falcon-heavy-center-core-drone-ship-rough-ocean

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Audience: "Charlie, one of my favorite lines from you is you want to hire the guy with an IQ of 130 that thinks it is 120 and the guy with an IQ of 150 that thinks it is 170 will just kill you"

Charlie: "You must be thinking of Elon Musk"


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  #276 (permalink)
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centaurer View Post
Audience: "Charlie, one of my favorite lines from you is you want to hire the guy with an IQ of 130 that thinks it is 120 and the guy with an IQ of 150 that thinks it is 170 will just kill you"

Charlie: "You must be thinking of Elon Musk"


Good clip. But it's not just, or even mainly, about Musk.

Not to say anything for or against Elon Musk, but I watched the clip to the end and he also says that you shouldn't "underestimate the man who overestimates himself," which is also food for thought. (He doesn't care for that person, mind you, but he knows there is such a thing.)

He says that he prefers the "prudent person" over the "delusional" one who occasionally knocks it out of the park. But he is talking about who he would hire to work for him. I'd want a reliable, solid type of person too, if I were hiring someone to work for me. I'd want predictability. Brilliance would be OK, but I'd want to know they'd get the job done. Of course, I would be the one telling them the job I wanted done.

Change the context a little though.... If you had the idea about yourself that you would become one of the wealthiest people on earth, then I would say that, no matter what your IQ is, that's a pretty delusional idea on the face of it. Yet both Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet have done just that.

I'm not criticizing either the original post nor, certainly, Charlie Munger, and I hesitate to praise Musk too much, given his problems with Tesla (so far) and given the probably excessive praise that has been heaped on him. We don't know what the scoreboard will eventually show on him (Tesla: currently troubled, Space X: pretty amazing. But no final score on either.)

But while a person might regard Buffet and Munger as the height of sober, prudent, sound investing acumen, let's face it, there are a whole lot of careful, sober, prudent investors who are not among the top rank of the world's multi-billionaires, and who won't ever be. Aiming to succeed that big is pretty delusional, until you do succeed, and then it's not. Buffet's investing style, after all, was always different from what everyone else was doing, and it worked out pretty well.

Is there a point here? Well, I guess it's just to not automatically underestimate the "delusional" ones. They may not be that crazy after all. You should also know that most of the big thinkers flop, which is the other side of it. Then you can decide where you want to be yourself. ( )

And no, I wouldn't hire an Elon Musk. I might back him, but only with risk capital I were willing to lose.... Same goes with Buffet though -- even now, there is no assurance his next moves will work out. (And yes, he's got a much better track record than anybody. But he didn't in the beginning, and that was the best time to back him, when his future results were not known. Funny how that works.)

But I hope my point is clear anyway.... Exceptional results are scarce and you really can't predict them. The somewhat-smart, reliable follower of directions will follow orders very well, perhaps even with some initiative and originality. But won't ever make a billion dollars.

This was a great quote. I always like Charlie Munger -- he stimulates thinking, whether in agreement or disagreement with him (or semi-agreement .)

Bob.

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bobwest View Post
Not to say anything for or against Elon Musk, but I watched the clip to the end and he also says that you shouldn't "underestimate the man who overestimates himself," which is also food for thought. (He doesn't care for that person, mind you, but he knows there is such a thing.)


I forgot about that great quote. Both are just so fantastic and especially in conjunction. Having 95yo Charlie around still is such a gift. The whole talk is worth listening to. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO8aB4fEXs8

I really have nothing against Musk. I think it is a shame there are not more people willing to take huge risks.

Peter Thiel makes such a great point that we have only had innovation in the world of bits and have pretty much given up on innovation in the world of atoms. Musk is really the only one trying to do anything in the world of atoms.

Personally, I just dislike all the cult of personality/twitter/rock star bullshit that surrounds him.

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Slightly off topic (there isn't a Blue Origin thread) and almost a month old, but SpaceX enthusiasts will probably find this WSJ article interesting.

WSJ :- Can Jeff Bezos Make Money in Space?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-jeff-bezos-make-money-in-space-11554975000

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