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RIG - Transocean Ltd
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RIG - Transocean Ltd

  #11 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Forgive my ignorance Mike, but what is "betaBear" and "betaBull"? How is XLE beta represented in the chart?

Three plots: beta, beat bull, beta bear. RIG is being compared to XLE, the beta performance is calculated for positive and negative returns on a daily basis.

I find it useful to look at beta in this way instead of just a single figure. There are often times when a product will perform significantly different in bear/bull times compared to its index.

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  #12 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Three plots: beta, beat bull, beta bear. RIG is being compared to XLE, the beta performance is calculated for positive and negative returns on a daily basis.

I find it useful to look at beta in this way instead of just a single figure. There are often times when a product will perform significantly different in bear/bull times compared to its index.

Mike

That is an interesting chart...I could not reproduce the chart unless I knew the details of its construction....then I probably could reproduce it in Excel to test it on RIG as well as other stocks.

Can you give us an idea as to how you would interpret this kind of chart? Is the converging of these lines a buildup to a breakout? Can you predict the direction of a breakout from it?

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  #13 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
That is an interesting chart...I could not reproduce the chart unless I knew the details of its construction....then I probably could reproduce it in Excel to test it on RIG as well as other stocks.

Can you give us an idea as to how you would interpret this kind of chart? Is the converging of these lines a buildup to a breakout? Can you predict the direction of a breakout from it?

Just take the daily returns of the product and its "index" (I used XLE here for RIG), and run CAPM beta on the returns. Break them out for + and - daily returns, creating the "bull" and "bear" plot.

As for analysis, you could use the slope of a linear regression to give you an expected return or risk premium.

I don't want to derail the thread, but will post a single screen from TSLA vs SPX. In this chart you can see that TSLA significantly outperforms on bearish days compared to the index, while underperforming on bullish days. This is useful information to me.

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Mike

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  #14 (permalink)
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Josh it would be great if you start a stock journal to discuss other stocks and etfs as well. Just a suggestion sir.

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RIG update

I still see that RIG is a ways away from revealing its direction

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You can see first of all that the $38.75 - $39 resistance has proven to be pretty strong. It is challenged almost every day but so far is solid.

It is traveling down a BB tunnel right now.... the BBwidth is ready to show a breakout....the MACD is very nice....However, the Slow Sto remains anemic...it cannot seem to rise above 20 in its chart.

If the MACD takes a downturn it would not look good....you want to see a rise in the Slow Sto....this chart is unusual in that Slow Sto usually rises first, not the MACD, as a result I don't see a breach of the $38.75 - $39.00 resistance in the next few days

So it is still a watch for me....an interesting watch nonetheless.

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FYI I trimmed 1/4 yesterday around 38 in RIG, as energy and crude got slammed for $3. Today crude is raging (at least up), and so energy stocks doing better. I am attempting a long in HAL carried from yesterday that I will know by the end of today if I will keep or not, so my focus has shifted to managing HAL. The chart looks better to me, and has a quicker payoff potential. I will update this all in a post later, just replying and a quick update.

edit Sept 3 10:35pm -- I closed the trade in RIG totally today, got flat at 38.18, due to the way the stock is behaving today. Technically I could still hold it, but it's just not a stock I want to be in at this point after today. There's always the chance it will ramp higher, and I simply have to be okay with that. I will post updates when I have more time, hopefully tomorrow. I am long HAL still, so any positive momentum in energy should be reflected there, and it has already yielded more profit than the loss in RIG, and will document this as well. Sorry no time to do it tonight.


Last edited by josh; September 3rd, 2014 at 11:40 PM.
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I hold a small position on rig, also have position on brk-b, bac, ge, cme
Speculative position on grpn ,amd, bbry

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Here's the update on RIG. After my last post I was expecting a push higher to test above 38.80 which it looked like it wanted to do on Friday the 29th, but which it did not finish. On Tuesday (after the holiday Monday) the whole energy sector got slammed hard. I was long XLE coming in, and got trucked on it, though I had cut my position in half going into ramp on Friday.

My entries are shown below in yellow, exits in purple. So my first exit in RIG was at the end of the day on Tuesday, right at 38. I wish I could say I got a better exit, but did not. On Wednesday crude was back up big time, and it took energy stocks with it. After an attempt to get above 38.60, it flopped hard, and at that point I made the decision that I did not want to hold the stock. I got out at 38.18, before the drop lower.

Thursday was looking quite bad, but after the judge ruling on the horizon well, RIG popped. Then it showed its true colors yet again and flopped along with most of the rest of equities into new lows. The silver lining on this is that I still was carrying half my puts, and got back what I paid for them as RIG pushed down towards 37.60. Still a disappointing result, particularly with the pop that happened the day after I got flat, but that's really beyond my control.

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Since this thread isn't about HAL and I haven't posted anything on it yet but only mentioned it, I'll sum it up like this:

I bought HAL on Tuesday as energy was tanking, a very speculative buy near the 66 lows. I traded around it and wound up being long going into Wednesday the 3rd. They slammed it down and I bought more just below 67 on that day, and was fortunate enough to take some off as it moved higher that day. On Thursday I was holding a small bit and added some near the lows--then I had to be away for about 15 minutes so I foolishly put a stop in a few cents above my breakeven price, and when I came back, at that moment before I could cancel it, HAL spiked down and I got flat about 3 cents off the move lower, minutes before the huge push up on the judge ruling news. That was disappointing to say the least.

While I made money overall on the trade, what I learned from this experience is that I should have been more on top of news in the sector (though the release was not scheduled from what I remember), and I just wasn't. That, combined with a poor choice of risk mitigation for me, cost me profits. Of course I felt better when it made new lows, but I really shouldn't have, as it doesn't change anything about what actually happened, which is missed profits for me.

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