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Please critique my trade
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Please critique my trade

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 13 since Mar 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 4 received

Please critique my trade

Hey Guys,

A little bit about me. I first tried day trading back in 2006. I got washed out quickly and since then just started saving and investing. That has turned out well for me.

Now here I am again ready to dip my foot in the pool, but multitudes more cautious this time around. Here is my first trade. My goal with this trade was to make a position trade. I haven't decided yet weather I will try day trading again or if I will just stick to swing trading or position trading

Please be brutally honest about my trade. It will help me learn and grow. THANK YOU

-----

March 13, 2014

TRADING: BIB

GOAL: Get in at the bottom of an upswing

STRATEGY: wait for price to pop back up above the 21 EMA after dipping

DETAILS: Buy Stop 152 at 98.51 / stop loss at 93.17

RESULT: Stop loss hit. LOSS $814 (2.1% of account)

STRATEGY FAIL EXPLANATION: Although afterhours hit the 21 EMA, the closing price was not above 21 EMA (on March 12). Also, DOW was not below 21, 30 or 50 EMA

LESSON:
- Next time wait until DOW is also coming up through an EMA (preferably 50)
- Buy only when price jumps over 21 EMA.
- Set buy stop above recent 5 day high for buy-in on momentum

POSITIVES: Feel relieved to be out of a possible down trending position. Glad I set stop loss and only risked 2% of account

NEGATIVES: Slippage on Stop loss. Next time use a stop-limit sell for stop loss.

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Market Wizard
whitestone, new york
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja trader
 
bobarian's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,534 since Oct 2010
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boundless View Post
Hey Guys,

A little bit about me. I first tried day trading back in 2006. I got washed out quickly and since then just started saving and investing. That has turned out well for me.

Now here I am again ready to dip my foot in the pool, but multitudes more cautious this time around. Here is my first trade. My goal with this trade was to make a position trade. I haven't decided yet weather I will try day trading again or if I will just stick to swing trading or position trading

Please be brutally honest about my trade. It will help me learn and grow. THANK YOU

-----

March 13, 2014

TRADING: BIB

GOAL: Get in at the bottom of an upswing

STRATEGY: wait for price to pop back up above the 21 EMA after dipping

DETAILS: Buy Stop 152 at 98.51 / stop loss at 93.17

RESULT: Stop loss hit. LOSS $814 (2.1% of account)

STRATEGY FAIL EXPLANATION: Although afterhours hit the 21 EMA, the closing price was not above 21 EMA (on March 12). Also, DOW was not below 21, 30 or 50 EMA

LESSON:
- Next time wait until DOW is also coming up through an EMA (preferably 50)
- Buy only when price jumps over 21 EMA.
- Set buy stop above recent 5 day high for buy-in on momentum

POSITIVES: Feel relieved to be out of a possible down trending position. Glad I set stop loss and only risked 2% of account

NEGATIVES: Slippage on Stop loss. Next time use a stop-limit sell for stop loss.

it would be helpful if you posted a chart

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  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prince George BC Canada
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IBs TWS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
deaddog's Avatar
 
Posts: 591 since May 2013
Thanks: 97 given, 643 received


boundless View Post
Hey Guys,

A little bit about me. I first tried day trading back in 2006. I got washed out quickly and since then just started saving and investing. That has turned out well for me.

Now here I am again ready to dip my foot in the pool, but multitudes more cautious this time around. Here is my first trade. My goal with this trade was to make a position trade. I haven't decided yet weather I will try day trading again or if I will just stick to swing trading or position trading

Please be brutally honest about my trade. It will help me learn and grow. THANK YOU

-----

March 13, 2014

TRADING: BIB

GOAL: Get in at the bottom of an upswing

STRATEGY: wait for price to pop back up above the 21 EMA after dipping

DETAILS: Buy Stop 152 at 98.51 / stop loss at 93.17

RESULT: Stop loss hit. LOSS $814 (2.1% of account)

STRATEGY FAIL EXPLANATION: Although afterhours hit the 21 EMA, the closing price was not above 21 EMA (on March 12). Also, DOW was not below 21, 30 or 50 EMA

LESSON:
- Next time wait until DOW is also coming up through an EMA (preferably 50)
- Buy only when price jumps over 21 EMA.
- Set buy stop above recent 5 day high for buy-in on momentum

POSITIVES: Feel relieved to be out of a possible down trending position. Glad I set stop loss and only risked 2% of account

NEGATIVES: Slippage on Stop loss. Next time use a stop-limit sell for stop loss.

Good trade in that you followed your plan.
It is only one trade of many. Make several trades before tweaking your system to see if you are on the right track.
I would suggest reducing your risk to less than 1% of your account until you are satisfied that your strategy is sound.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #5 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 13 since Mar 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 4 received


deaddog View Post
Good trade in that you followed your plan.
It is only one trade of many. Make several trades before tweaking your system to see if you are on the right track.
I would suggest reducing your risk to less than 1% of your account until you are satisfied that your strategy is sound.

Thanks and great advice. Even though I only lost 2% of my account that still represents about a weeks pay. Ugh, that makes me feel sick to think of it that way. I think I'll be more comfortable risking only 0.5% next time.

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  #6 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 13 since Mar 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 4 received


bobarian View Post
it would be helpful if you posted a chart

Thanks. Your request actually got me to learn more about Interactive Broker's charts and how to use/edit them. Anyways, here is the chart you requested.




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  #7 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


boundless View Post
GOAL: Get in at the bottom of an upswing

STRATEGY: wait for price to pop back up above the 21 EMA after dipping

LESSON:
- Next time wait until DOW is also coming up through an EMA (preferably 50)
- Buy only when price jumps over 21 EMA.
- Set buy stop above recent 5 day high for buy-in on momentum


What analysis have you done that indicates your approach has long term profitability?

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #8 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,635 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,755 given, 11,114 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

A couple of things:

I've marked up your chart a bit, to show what stood out for me:

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You wrote that, in the past, when price closed above the EMA it kept on going up. Here, price either is in a serious pullback or a downtrend, and the EMA has started down. Unless you have tested a signal under these conditions and found it to work, this may not be the point to be a buyer. Price can certainly poke above a moving average and then head back down, as it did.

So this was a pretty high-risk trade, really.

Now, I am aware that price may well just turn around and go up tomorrow, making everything I've said look wrong , but trying to bottom-pick is still an iffy proposition.

It's important to test your methods -- including the "Lessons" you have listed -- under many different conditions to get a better handle on what works and when.

A last point, about using a stop limit next time as your stop loss, to avoid slippage. Every single time you use any kind of market order you face the chance of slippage -- but every single time you use any kind of limit order you face the chance of not getting filled AT ALL. Your limit order goes into a queue, and you wait your turn to get matched to an order on the other side. If the available orders on the other side get matched up before they get to you, then price can go on and leave you behind, unfilled.

So you should not use a stop limit to get you out. You have no guarantee that it will, in fact, get you out and stop your loss. No kidding.

Good luck. Best advice: more testing, be aware of context. A good trade in one context may not be good in another.

Bob.

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  #9 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: IB
Favorite Futures: Stocks
 
Posts: 13 since Mar 2014
Thanks: 11 given, 4 received


kevinkdog View Post
What analysis have you done that indicates your approach has long term profitability?


Thank you. Specifically, what kind of analysis would you suggest? My analysis was based on past price action and the fact that we are in a bull market. If there is some deeper level of analysis I am eager to learn.

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  #10 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



boundless View Post
Thank you. Specifically, what kind of analysis would you suggest? My analysis was based on past price action and the fact that we are in a bull market. If there is some deeper level of analysis I am eager to learn.

So, how many cases/examples/instances of this past price action, in a bull market, did you look at to determine your approach would be profitable?

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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