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Trading REAL MONEY
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Trading REAL MONEY

  #81 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
Detroit Michigan United States of America
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT TOS Scott Trade Live stream
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Quoting 
I don't know anyone who can consistently take 20 points a week out of ES per contract.

Hell I don't either.

All I know is that 4 points is do able at one time in there and if one was to try to stay in for more than that day trading you'd be playing with fire. I don't have the account size yet to take a position to bed anyway so I don't even worry about it.

Example is 1 position last week got me 200. 2 positions early this week got me 262.50 each in 2 days. Then on the very next position I lost 250. At the end of the month my if account is worth more than what I started with I'm good.

You don't get rich by being reckless you get rich by being slow and cautious and trust me I am.

I am not in this for fun as it says on my label. Dunno who posted that. I am in this to make money everyday. Does that always happen? Pretty much. There are losers though and yesterday was the day. I didn't give them any of my own money though so it is still a win win for me the way I see it. It was their money and money I did not have before so I could care less about that loss. While it did suck it's not the end of my trading.

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  #82 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
Detroit Michigan United States of America
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT TOS Scott Trade Live stream
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Posts: 86 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 19 given, 35 received


Quoting 
I'd never recommend someone try to trade based on such a low margin requirement. It is a recipe for disaster.

FreakinA no doubt it is. LOL

I am very disciplined KD. I am resolved to the fact that my account is very small and I must build it up to get what I want. I did this on purpose. My account is severely underfunded by most parameters. Here's the thing though.

When traders go in the live market after trading sim and find that all the kooky s### they where doing on sim is getting them wrecked they wonder WTF happened.

I had already been in the live markets twice with real money and wasn't ready yet and GTF outta there as fast as I could without blowing out either time. Again it's about being smart vs reckless IMHO.

I got constantly profitable this year and was getting a lot of flack from my mentor to go in the live markets to see if I really had game. He trades in multiplies of 3,6 9, and 18 in ES live at any given time. Interestingly we do not trade any where near the same way. The end result is the only outcome needed though.

MAKE MONEY EVERYDAY

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  #83 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
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DetroitMoney View Post
FreakinA no doubt it is. LOL

I am very disciplined KD. I am resolved to the fact that my account is very small and I must build it up to get what I want. I did this on purpose. My account is severely underfunded by most parameters. Here's the thing though.

When traders go in the live market after trading sim and find that all the kooky s### they where doing on sim is getting them wrecked they wonder WTF happened.

I had already been in the live markets twice with real money and wasn't ready yet and GTF outta there as fast as I could without blowing out either time. Again it's about being smart vs reckless IMHO.

I got constantly profitable this year and was getting a lot of flack from my mentor to go in the live markets to see if I really had game. He trades in multiplies of 3,6 9, and 18 in ES live at any given time. Interestingly we do not trade any where near the same way. The end result is the only outcome needed though.

MAKE MONEY EVERYDAY

I posted this in another thread a while back, but I could not find it. Here is why small accounts usually lose, even if the trader has a winning system...


Let's say you have a neat day trading system. It trades 2 times a day. Winning trades are $200 after all costs, 50% of the time. When it loses the other 50% of the time, it loses $175 net.

So, per day, on average, you'd make $25 a day. In a year, you'd make $6,300 per contract. If you traded this with a $10K account, always with one contract, you'd make 63% annual return, with somewhere around 15% drawdown. By most measures that is really good.

Now, let's say you take this positive expectancy system, and trade it with a small account, $5K and under. Let's say your broker allows $500 day trading margin, so that is your "ruin" point - if your account drops below $500, you are ruined and you quit trading.

In one year of trading, how likely are you to be ruined (drop below $500, and cease trading)?

The results might surprise you.


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  #84 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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If you give me your particulars (% win, net avg win, net avg loss, account size, # trades per year) I can do this same analysis for your $300 day trading margin case.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #85 (permalink)
Elite Member
portland/oregon
 
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kevinkdog View Post
If you give me your particulars (% win, net avg win, net avg loss, account size, # trades per year) I can do this same analysis for your $300 day trading margin case.

Hey Kevinkdog, What do you consider to be properly funded then? Would it be with your math be a person who can trade close to full margin per contract? Or is it something else. Or do you have a formula that you would use (if so give formula if you can). thanks.

the meanest bean of all,
MeanBean
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  #86 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
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MeanBean View Post
Hey Kevinkdog, What do you consider to be properly funded then? Would it be with your math be a person who can trade close to full margin per contract? Or is it something else. Or do you have a formula that you would use (if so give formula if you can). thanks.

If you google "risk of ruin" you should be able to find an equation on calculating it. I use a simple Monte Carlo simulator to generate the results I get.

There are really 4 things you want to look at:

1. Minimize risk of ruin
2. Minimize maximum drawdown
3. Maximize annual return
4. Maximize return/drawdown ratio


For #1 and #2, it becomes a personal decision. What odds do you want to accept that you'll be wiped out in a year? 1%? 5%? 10%? 50%? Same question for maximum drawdown.

Once you know what you can live with, you can work backwards and figure out what kind of account size you need to meet your parameters.

Of course, all this assumes that you know the detailed performance metrics of your trading system, in order to feed into the calculator or simulator. Problem is 1) many people have no statistics like this, and 2) if they do have the numbers from a backtest, chances are the results are bogus, since most people don't know how to backtest properly (that is a whole other thread topic).

Hope this helps.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #87 (permalink)
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I am trading for income mostly KD. I have a another business which is very high profit margin and low over head. It's the type of business that enables me to only have to work 6 months a year. I can then do anything I want anywhere in the world I wish to do it for the other 6 months.

As you know you can trade form anywhere in the world or so they say. The one thing to keep in mind is how good/strong the internet is where ever you are especially if you are in Europe. My other business is very physically demanding however since I only have to do it for six months it's a trade off on the harshness of it. I can heal up trading at the beach in the winter. LOL

I also am in a good position because I own everything I have. House, vehicles, my one work machine, 0 credit card debt. Losing some money in the market is no fun however it's not the worst thing that can happen because I can always make more at some point. No one wants to loose $200- 300 on a 50-50 set up. However if you had a good 4-5 trading days ( or months, years) $300 becomes immaterial.

Having and/or starting with a large account size is a two way street. A bigger account size just let's you have bigger balls is all. Someone here in futures.io (formerly BMT) said to increase size and decrease risk. I agree with that 100%. Most professional traders I know use less than 1% risk and are very successful AND RICH!! LOL However if you are not trading proportionately then it is a moot point. I get ROR for sure. Van Tharp is the bomb and he knows whats up for sure.

You could start with 100k 200k would not matter because if you don't know what you are doing in the live market you WILL lose all of your freaking money. No doubt. Sim is all fine and dandy to learn how to use SL and PT's and that however it's all BS because there is no one there but you. I doubled my sim account every month from January of this year to May. I would zero it out and start over with 10k every month. Then from June I let it go and ran the 10k up to over 500K. As my mentor say's DON"T MEAN S###.

To really know if you have game or not you must go into the live market and trade against real other traders most of which are trying to take your money. Here's what I did. I took out almost all of the money from my futures account and put it into 19 value positions in equities. The money is now all deployed and working. Nothing to do on that now.

I left in 580 and change. I over doubled it in just 4 trades in the live market. If indeed that can be a good thing and is like that at the end of the month it is all good. Will there be losers? Of course. Could I lose all of my money in the live market on 1 position. Not a chance. My ATM strategy is designed to open the position, place the SL and PT upon clicking the mouse. Nothing to do except sit back and either make money or lose it. How much I lose is set so again there is nothing to do. There is no stress. LOL NOT!!!

Example is yesterday It was all good and then PA turned back. DO you want to get shaken out on a few candles? Not me. I just stayed in it. I actually watched the candle blow up in front of my eyes and watched it hit my hard money SL. Now I honestly have to say I hate that witch that comes on and says "stop filled" however it is what it is
because it is all in the ATM. I just sat there and took the 250 loss then turned off the charts and went to the strip club for gentleman's breakfast as it was only like 0945. LOL

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  #88 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Cleveland Ohio/United States
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Broker/Data: various
Favorite Futures: futures
 
Posts: 2,388 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,139 given, 4,387 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


DetroitMoney View Post
I am trading for income mostly KD. I have a another business which is very high profit margin and low over head. It's the type of business that enables me to only have to work 6 months a year. I can then do anything I want anywhere in the world I wish to do it for the other 6 months.

As you know you can trade form anywhere in the world or so they say. The one thing to keep in mind is how good/strong the internet is where ever you are especially if you are in Europe. My other business is very physically demanding however since I only have to do it for six months it's a trade off on the harshness of it. I can heal up trading at the beach in the winter. LOL

I also am in a good position because I own everything I have. House, vehicles, my one work machine, 0 credit card debt. Losing some money in the market is no fun however it's not the worst thing that can happen because I can always make more at some point. No one wants to loose $200- 300 on a 50-50 set up. However if you had a good 4-5 trading days ( or months, years) $300 becomes immaterial.

Having and/or starting with a large account size is a two way street. A bigger account size just let's you have bigger balls is all. Someone here in futures.io (formerly BMT) said to increase size and decrease risk. I agree with that 100%. Most professional traders I know use less than 1% risk and are very successful AND RICH!! LOL However if you are not trading proportionately then it is a moot point. I get ROR for sure. Van Tharp is the bomb and he knows whats up for sure.

You could start with 100k 200k would not matter because if you don't know what you are doing in the live market you WILL lose all of your freaking money. No doubt. Sim is all fine and dandy to learn how to use SL and PT's and that however it's all BS because there is no one there but you. I doubled my sim account every month from January of this year to May. I would zero it out and start over with 10k every month. Then from June I let it go and ran the 10k up to over 500K. As my mentor say's DON"T MEAN S###.

To really know if you have game or not you must go into the live market and trade against real other traders most of which are trying to take your money. Here's what I did. I took out almost all of the money from my futures account and put it into 19 value positions in equities. The money is now all deployed and working. Nothing to do on that now.

I left in 580 and change. I over doubled it in just 4 trades in the live market. If indeed that can be a good thing and is like that at the end of the month it is all good. Will there be losers? Of course. Could I lose all of my money in the live market on 1 position. Not a chance. My ATM strategy is designed to open the position, place the SL and PT upon clicking the mouse. Nothing to do except sit back and either make money or lose it. How much I lose is set so again there is nothing to do. There is no stress. LOL NOT!!!

Example is yesterday It was all good and then PA turned back. DO you want to get shaken out on a few candles? Not me. I just stayed in it. I actually watched the candle blow up in front of my eyes and watched it hit my hard money SL. Now I honestly have to say I hate that witch that comes on and says "stop filled" however it is what it is
because it is all in the ATM. I just sat there and took the 250 loss then turned off the charts and went to the strip club for gentleman's breakfast as it was only like 0945. LOL


With $580 in your futures account, your chances of dropping below the $300 you need to open a new trade (your ruin point) are practically guaranteed, even if you have a winning approach (most people don't).

But you say you understand risk of ruin, so you know this. But for people reading who don't get this, maybe they will now.

As far as your statement: "Could I lose all of my money in the live market on 1 position. Not a chance." I sincerely hope you never experience how wrong this statement is.

If you have any questions please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
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  #89 (permalink)
Elite Member
Naperville IL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninjatrader
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$580 account to trade futures? did i miss anything? joke?

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  #90 (permalink)
Membership Revoked
Detroit Michigan United States of America
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Here is a chart.

I am not worried about losing some money. I AM certainly trying to keep ALL of the money I already have though

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