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Deaddogs Swing Trading
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Deaddogs Swing Trading

  #41 (permalink)
Elite Member
Prince George BC Canada
 
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My fellow Canadian investor Underexposed and I were having a bit of a discussion over on his trading journal. Check it out itís a great journal. He basically calls his trades in advance, one of the very few who will do this.

It seems I wore out my welcome over there and I wanted to set the record straight on a couple of things.


Underexposed View Post
Since you are so interested in my finances let us take a look at your potential gains/losses from your journal

Now I will assume you are trading in your journal the same as you do in real life.

You should never assume anything. Thatís why I ask questions I donít want to assume. But yes these are my real life trades in my trading account. The account is held at Interactive Brokers and I trade mostly US stocks. I also have an investment account that is mostly invested in Canadian dividend stocks. The cash from dividends and distributions is what I live off. The gains from my trading account are used to pick up the tab for my winters in Arizona.

Underexposed View Post
from May 1st in your blog

Quoting 
Position sizing:

I show my position size as a percentage of capital at risk. I predetermine how much capital I want to risk on each trade. I take the difference between my calculated stop and my entry price and divide the risk capital by that amount.

For example;
Account size = $100,000
Capital at risk =0.5% = $500
If the difference between my entry and my stop = $1.00 then position size is 500
If the difference between my entry and my stop = $2.00 then position size is 250

The percentage amount I quote is the least amount I will lose. In a falling market I can lose a lot more as stops get filled as market orders.

Hmmm...you limit your wins to basically $500/share

Nope: I limit my losses to $500. My gains are hopefully in the $1500 range.


Underexposed View Post
from April 28 in your journal


Quoting 
Picked up some QCOM @ 77.96
Stop @ 77.30 Initial target 80.00


so you would purchase 250 shares as a position because it is a $2 spread

so your investment is 250 X $77.96 = $19,490 to make a potential $500

but you did not make $500....you stopped out at $78.70...or $0.64/share or a total of $0.64 x 250 = $160 but you would have made less than that as your commission costs are not included at $10 in + $10 out your gain is only $140.00

Thatís not quite how it works. My position size is calculated from the difference between the entry and the stop. In this case 77.96 Ė 77.30 = 66 cents.
If I was using $100,000 of capital then 0.5% =$500
The position size would be 500/.066 = 757 shares. Iíd round it down to 750.
So my trade is 750 * 77.69 = 58740 to make a potential 1500

And your right. I took the trade off before it got to the target and only made
750 *0.64 = $480 less commissions of $4.00 each way. $472.
The stock wasnít acting the way I expected it to so I got out.



Underexposed View Post
and this seems to be one of your better gains...there are a fair number of losses that you report and admittedly a few wins.

Frankly I doubt you could make a living at this even if your capital was 10 times this amount...you are basically breaking even from the look at it.

Here is a quick review of my trades in May.
SCI loss 0.05% of Capital.
QCOM gain of 0.68%
SHPG loss 0.51%
NEE loss 0.33%
DRII loss 0.28%
LNG gain 1.37%
CHRW gain0.09%
SWSK loss 0.31%
HON loss 0.45%
MAR gain 1.02%

Realized gain for May was 1.25% of capital.
I can live with that. Iíd like to do better but if I can do that each month thatís a 15% annual return.

Any comments or questions? Plese feel free to ask.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.
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  #42 (permalink)
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DDD Stopped out @ 49.67
Capital lost = 0.49%

Scratch QCOR @ 89.59
Break even trade

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.

Last edited by deaddog; June 4th, 2014 at 04:28 PM.
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  #43 (permalink)
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Monday I will look at 3 pullback plays;
LNG; IQNT ; CONN.

And 4 break-out plays:
AER; GBX; IQNT; NXPI.

Entry Signal on the pull back plays will be a trade above Fridays high. Stop will be just below the last swing low or Fridays low. Targets will be somewhere above the last swing high. It really depends on the price action.

Entry on the breakout plays is above the resistance. Stops will be tight, usually just below the resistance and exits will be a break of the trend line.

Here is a chart of MU that I bought at the end of May. If it closes below the trend line I will more than likely be out if it trades below the low of that day.

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Is anyone out there getting any value from these posts? I feel like I'm taking to myself. I'd really like to interact with others interested in swing trading.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Closed position in PPC at break even:

Open position in LNG at 66.72
stop = stop @ 65.50 Initial target 70.39
Capital at risk = 0.49%

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  #45 (permalink)
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Opened a postion in GBX @ 57.03
Breakout play: I'll exit the position on the break of the trend line.
Right now that would just below the last swing low. $53.50 range.

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  #46 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post

Open position in LNG at 66.72
stop = stop @ 65.50 Initial target 70.39
Capital at risk = 0.49%

Iíd like to be able to report that this trade was doing OK but I honoured my stop and was out at 65.50 losing 0.49% of my capital.

Iím still holding MU and GBX

Bought SUNE on a breakout play on Jun 17 @ 22.19
Stop will be triggered by a close below the trend line.



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  #47 (permalink)
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Did a little bottom fishing today.
Picked up a small position CAG; $28.89

Possibly catching a falling knife. I have a stop just under Fridays low at @ 28.50

Price has stopped falling (For now). I'm looking for a possible gap fill. Initial target is 31.25
The risk is small compared to the possible reward.
Rolling the dice so to speak.
Capital at risk is less than 0.2%

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  #48 (permalink)
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TQNT: Buy at 15.65 Swing trade
stop @ 15.20 Initial target 17.06

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  #49 (permalink)
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deaddog View Post
TQNT: Buy at 15.65 Swing trade
stop @ 15.20 Initial target 17.06

Closed this trade @ 15.52. Price moved below yesterdays low.
Loss of capital was 0.05%




deaddog View Post
Opened a postion in GBX @ 57.03
Breakout play: I'll exit the position on the break of the trend line.
Right now that would just below the last swing low. $53.50 range.

Looks like GBX will close below the trend line today.
I’ll have to make a decision by the close of market if I’ll take the trade off or leave it for another day. We’ll see how it acts in the last Ĺ hour. If it makes a new low from here I’ll close the trade.


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Sold @ 57.01 a couple minutes before the close.

Capital lost insignificant Break even trade.

It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.

Last edited by deaddog; June 27th, 2014 at 05:03 PM. Reason: to update trade.
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Last Post


Update; end of June:

Not a very busy Month.
Nothing I sold showed a profit.
DDD and LNG were sold at a loss of 0.49% of capital each
TQNT showed a loss of 0.05% of capital and QCOR; PPC; & GBX were break even trades.

Total loss of capital for the month was 1.03% of capital

Unrealized gains
SUNE: break even
CAG: gain of 0.40% of capital
MU: gain of 1.75% of capital.

Total unrealized gain of 2.15% of capital.

Overall gain for the month = 1.12%

Iím not really happy with 1% per month; Iíd prefer 2% or better but any gain is better than having a losing month.

This will be my last post in this thread. There doesnít seem to be much interest in swing trading stocks. I had hoped to have some discussion with other traders but none has developed.

DD

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