NexusFi: Find Your Edge


Home Menu

 





TSLA - Tesla Motors


Discussion in Stocks and ETFs

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Big Mike with 137 posts (60 thanks)
    2. looks_two tturner86 with 40 posts (40 thanks)
    3. looks_3 SMCJB with 14 posts (33 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Xelaneb with 11 posts (9 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one srgtroy with 2.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two SMCJB with 2.4 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 tturner86 with 1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Big Mike with 0.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 85,173 views
    2. thumb_up 242 thanks given
    3. group 48 followers
    1. forum 306 posts
    2. attach_file 2 attachments




 
Search this Thread

TSLA - Tesla Motors

  #111 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,399 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,175
Thanks Received: 101,541


Xelaneb View Post
volume coming in confirming this move out of balance. added at $212. risk on add is a close back below 50 day ma. 4%

Nice work.

I did not add and missed it so far. It is jumping on Model X news.

With The Model X On Track, 2015 Could Be Big For Tesla - Forbes

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on NexusFi?
Are there any eval firms that allow you to sink to your …
Traders Hideout
Futures True Range Report
The Elite Circle
NT7 Indicator Script Troubleshooting - Camarilla Pivots
NinjaTrader
ZombieSqueeze
Platforms and Indicators
Build trailing stop for micro index(s)
Psychology and Money Management
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on NexusFi
Get funded firms 2023/2024 - Any recommendations or word …
60 thanks
Funded Trader platforms
37 thanks
NexusFi site changelog and issues/problem reporting
24 thanks
GFIs1 1 DAX trade per day journal
22 thanks
The Program
19 thanks
  #112 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,399 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,175
Thanks Received: 101,541

So, I had a call with Elon Musk earlier this week - The Oatmeal


Quoting 
As some of you may know, I recently published a cartoonist's review of my Tesla Model S. In the second half of the review, I asked Elon Musk to donate toward the completion of a Nikola Tesla Museum, a project I've been working on since 2012.

Within a few hours of posting my review, Elon Musk tweeted that he'd be happy to help. Earlier this week I got to speak to the man directly, and he promised two things.

1. He's going to build a Tesla Supercharger station in the parking lot of the museum.
2. He's donating $1 million dollars to the museum itself.

Elon Musk: from the deepest wells of my geeky little heart: thank you. This is amazing news. And it's Nikola Tesla's 158th birthday.

Happy Nikola Tesla Day.

-The Oatmeal

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #113 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,399 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,175
Thanks Received: 101,541


Why Elon Musk is right about batteries being the future of automobiles

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #114 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,399 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,175
Thanks Received: 101,541

I want this t-shirt.



Elon Musk promises $1 million, Supercharger for New York's Nikola Tesla Museum

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #115 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,399 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,175
Thanks Received: 101,541

Found it.

Occupy Mars T-shirt - Featured

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #116 (permalink)
 
tturner86's Avatar
 tturner86 
Portland, Oregon
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: F-16CM-40
Trading: GBU-39
Posts: 6,191 since Sep 2013
Thanks Given: 10,459
Thanks Received: 12,695

Jul. 13, 2014 3:52 PM ET | 102 comments | About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Disclosure: The author is short TSLA. (More...)
Summary

Many reports are circulating about Model S drivetrains needing to be replaced.
The cost of these replacements is likely to significantly worsen Tesla's operating losses.
The $15,000 ex-warranty replacement cost may significantly affect the resale value of the car and thus the cost of Tesla's "Resale Value Guarantee" program.
There are an increasing number of reports about Tesla's (TSLA) Model S drivetrains needing complete replacements, either because of unusual noise or outright failures. Perhaps most highly visible is that Edmund's test car recently received its fourth unit while Motor Trend went through two. If one reads the comments under these articles as well as numerous threads both on Tesla's own message forum (here and here are two of the latest) and that of the "Tesla Motors Club," it appears that these aren't isolated cases and that when performed out of warranty the repair costs approximately $15,000.

This potential drivetrain problem has significant negative ramifications for Tesla's profitability due to the expense of repairs performed under warranty as well as future liabilities incurred under the company's "Resale Value Guarantee" program. (The resale issue is likely to occur because as word of the problem spreads, secondary buyers may refuse to pay original owners Tesla's guaranteed price of approximately 48% of the initial cost of a three year-old car that may need a $15,000 repair-- or multiple $15,000 repairs-- at any time, thereby forcing Tesla to make up the difference.) Now let's try to quantify the impact of this on Tesla's income statement...

Tesla's most recent 10-Q states that Q1 2014 warranty expense was $9.3 million. If this was distributed among 28,000 cars (Tesla had delivered approximately 31,000 by the end of that quarter, but many of those came in late June and thus probably wouldn't have yet needed warranty work), it would come to $332 per car per quarter which is $1328 per car per year which-- over a four year warranty period-- would be $5300 in repairs per car. (Keep in mind that this was before the company started retrofitting the titanium undershields, a project first announced on March 28th; thus, presumably none of that expense was in this figure.)

Now, one might argue that these warranty repair costs were particularly high because they covered many cars built early in the production cycle that may have had relatively minor defects that might have been engineered out of the newer cars, and I agree that this is possible. However, as the bulk of the Model S's were less than a year old in Q1 of 2014, I think it's also reasonable to assume that as those cars age into years two, three and four of their warranty periods (and their mileage continues to accrue), their warranty expense may increase significantly, perhaps overwhelming whatever savings Tesla may enjoy on fewer later-production squeaky sunroofs, balky door handles, etc. Thus, I think it's reasonable-- based on the information in hand-- to guess that Tesla's current "lifetime warranty repair run-rate" of approximately $5300 per car (as outlined in the paragraph above) could wind up running 50% higher, to as much as $8000 per car.

Regardless of whether the lifetime warranty expense is $5300 or $8000 or somewhere in between, as of Q1 Tesla appeared to be accruing a reserve of only approximately $3100 per car (adding $19.93 million to the reserve while delivering 6457 cars). If this calculation (and the calculations above) are correct, Tesla could be "under-reserving" by as much as $2200 to $4900 per car, and if the company sells 35,000 cars per year that would be $77 million to $172 million which (assuming 143 million fully diluted shares) would negatively impact EPS by .54 to $1.20 per fully diluted share.

As mentioned earlier, in addition to the potential warranty under-reserve is a potential liability for the "Resale Value Guarantee." This program appears to apply to approximately 18% of the cars sold by Tesla, as according to the 10Q the company delivered 6457 cars in the quarter and 1181 utilized the guarantee. However, as there were no Chinese or UK sales in this figure, let's assume going forward that only 15% of the cars will use this program, as while China may become an increasingly large percentage of Tesla's sales, it's probable that as word of the drivetrain replacements becomes more widespread, an increasing number of buyers may use this guarantee as a form of "depreciation insurance." (It's also possible that Chinese and European buyers may themselves begin to demand the resale insurance provided by such a program, but let's put that aside for now.)

So if Tesla is on a 35,000-car annual run-rate and 15% of those cars take advantage of the resale guarantee, it would amount to 5250 cars per year. And if due to the drivetrain failure reports those used cars wind up selling for $15,000 less than Tesla currently anticipates, it would cost the company an additional $79 million per year, which is approximately .55 per fully diluted share in additional losses.

Thus, these two potential problems (a warranty under-reserve and a Resale Value Guarantee under-reserve) could combine into $1.09 to $1.75 a share in annual loss based on just a 35,000-car annual run-rate-- if Tesla sells more cars next year the loss contribution from these problems could be even greater. (To put this figure into perspective, the consensus estimate for Tesla's non-GAAP earnings this year is currently $1.18/share; thus, these problems could eliminate those earnings entirely and perhaps turn them into a significant loss.)

Perhaps at some point Tesla will provide more clarity as to the significance of the drivetrain problem. Those of you who own the stock should demand it.

P.S. While we're on the subject of Tesla's warranty, some of you may be wondering what percentage of battery life the company guarantees will be available during the battery's eight-year warranty period. Unfortunately, the answer to that question appears to be "as little as it can get away with." Here's the exact disclaimer in the 10-Q:

"The New Vehicle Limited Warranty... covers the battery for a period of eight years or 125,000 miles or unlimited miles, depending on the size of the vehicle's battery, although the battery's charging capacity is not covered... The battery pack's charging capacity is not covered under the New Vehicle Limited Warranty or any Extended Service plan."

So what exactly is Tesla guaranteeing? That the car will start?

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #117 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,399 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,175
Thanks Received: 101,541

Tesla gets the go-ahead for five dealerships in Pennsylvania

Mike

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote
  #118 (permalink)
 
Neo1's Avatar
 Neo1 
Christchurch, New Zealand
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
Broker: IB, BC, Dx Feed
Trading: US Equities
Posts: 428 since Jul 2014
Thanks Given: 471
Thanks Received: 531



Where did that pop come from today? Found some buyers around the 3day low, then one time-framed.

Reply With Quote
  #119 (permalink)
 
Xelaneb's Avatar
 Xelaneb 
Shreveport, LA
 
Experience: None
Platform: Sierra
Trading: ES
Posts: 195 since Mar 2012
Thanks Given: 297
Thanks Received: 295

Longer term, watching support from 10wk ma.



Short term, testing value extremes of 220-240ish balance area


Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
Thanked by:
  #120 (permalink)
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 Big Mike 
Manta, Ecuador
Site Administrator
Developer
Swing Trader
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Broker: IBKR
Trading: Stocks & Futures
Frequency: Every few days
Duration: Weeks
Posts: 50,399 since Jun 2009
Thanks Given: 33,175
Thanks Received: 101,541


https://www.theverge.com/e/5667446

Sent from my LG Optimus G Pro

We're here to help: just ask the community or contact our Help Desk

Quick Links: Change your Username or Register as a Vendor
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list
Lifetime Elite Membership: Sign-up for only $149 USD
Exclusive money saving offers from our Site Sponsors: Browse Offers
Report problems with the site: Using the NexusFi changelog thread
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Started this thread Reply With Quote




Last Updated on January 31, 2024


© 2024 NexusFi™, s.a., All Rights Reserved.
Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama City, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada)
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
About Us - Contact Us - Site Rules, Acceptable Use, and Terms and Conditions - Privacy Policy - Downloads - Top
no new posts