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JPM JPMorgan Chase
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JPM JPMorgan Chase

  #21 (permalink)
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  #22 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
I've been long JPM for a while, and intend to hold for a while longer.

Mike

Just curious if you are back into this stock or whether you got out before it fell in April this year?

For all of its government troubles/investigations the stock still seems to be marching along...

Currently it is setting up for a bit of a breakout to the positive as I see it.

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I hope you don't mind my busting in on your thread with this graphic...If I am out of line let me know and I won't do it again

these are the 4 charts I usually use for my TA and I have found them quite useful in gauging the position of a share price. My belief is that all indicators lie....but they don't all lie at the same time so I look for a consensus, cancelling the bullish/bear...mildly bullish/mildly bearish...what is left is a pretty good indication of the bull/bear status

Chart #1 is my "trigger chart" I don't believe in the concept of "over bought/over sold" currently the Share price is working its way through a consolidation period for the last month...that run from mid- May was over in mid-June... the positive SlowSto and MACD usually lead the breakout...I call it real when the BBwidth goes suddenly positive too....that happened on June 2 -3...the end of the run usually happens when the BBWidth crests and declines....but note that the Slow Sto and MACD did not change slope to the negative....this strongly suggests that this is just a rest period to me.

the BBwidth is important when judging the breakout (positive or negative)...of course this indicator is related to the Boollinger bands position...You can see that there is no sudden breakout until the BBwidth falls to a certain level In this case it is between 3-5 and currently the BBwidth is in this range...so a breakout can occur any day now.

Why does this chart suggest a positive breakout?

1. The Slow Sto is remaining above 80 and a positive slope currently...if it drifted below 80 that would be bearish...Slo sto usually leads.
2. The MACD has flatlined since the end of the run and even rose slightly for a few days...if it had a bearish slope that would be bearish
3. the share price is well positioned between the BB's being consistently between the upper BB and the 20daySMA
4. The bullish cross of the 20daySMA through the 50daySMA and the upturn of the 50daySMA recently is bullish too.

the above chart alone makes it look good for a positive breakout but look at chart #2

1. The CMF is looking positive right now right through the consolidation period Mildly Bullish...only Mildly as it could be topped out.
2. The RSI is only NEUTRAL having a flat slope for about a month
3. Similarly the ADX DI +/- is only NEUTRAL BULLISH...it is bullish since there was a bullish cross on June 9 but neutral now since the green/red are running parallel.

The Chart#3 looks very good

1. The share price has climbed out from under the clouds and stayed there...Bullish
2. The thin red/blue lines are converging but the blue has a nice positive up tick now Mildly bullish
3. Both the OnBal Volume and CCI are bullish with positive slopes

So looking at all these points there is not one indicator that is bearish...at worst is a neutral and neutral bullish reading.

SO...I would say that there will be a bullish breakout for this stock before Monday of next week.

The only question I would have is how high will it rise and that is what I use the P&F chart for

you will note that the chart alert describes this as a Low Pole reversal...which is the computer suggesting there is a breakout coming....but I see a resistance at $59 (two tops of X columns) then there is the next top of X at $6.50

IF there is a breakout that crashes these two levels then you are in for a nice run here...but then again it may stumble on its first try anyway....at this point one cannot tell.

Anyway, I hope my approach to doing TA was interesting for you. Each stock and their charts present a different picture and I see different things.

I get the impression this is old school to a lot of people but it works for me....I only did this here to illustrate what I do...I don't know if you read my journal but I discuss more there....I won't subject you to this any more....unless you are interested

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  #23 (permalink)
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No I exited a long time ago and never got back in. I would have to look at my logs but it was last year sometime.

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Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

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  #24 (permalink)
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Yeah I though you would have...

Anyway we shall see if my prediction comes true

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  #25 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post
...My belief is that all indicators lie....but they don't all lie at the same time so I look for a consensus, cancelling the bullish/bear...mildly bullish/mildly bearish...what is left is a pretty good indication of the bull/bear status
...

I never thought about indicators this way. A kind of prisoner's dilemma applied to chart analysis. On the other hand, if any of these indicators do not provide an edge one has to wonder if many would turn a negative edge into a positive one. The math says no but i may miss something.

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  #26 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I never thought about indicators this way. A kind of prisoner's dilemma applied to chart analysis. On the other hand, if any of these indicators do not provide an edge one has to wonder if many would turn a negative edge into a positive one. The math says no but i may miss something.

This is the wrong place for a complete discussion of my approach but I am more than willing to elaborate on my approach in my journal

https://futures.io/trading-journals/30636-underexposed-canadian-stock-journal.html

you cannot pick just any old bunch of indicators. You have to select a suite of them that individually don't give the same information.

for example you would not use MACD and TRIX in your mix...both are momentum oscillators

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As you can see here you are basically getting the same information from the TRIX and MACD but the ADX with DI +/- gives an entirely different type of information

You will also note I eliminate the signal line on the MACD and I use a 30 day look back on the ADX....the signal line to my way of thinking is useless for long term views of a chart (I do believe it is crucial when you are looking at short term day trading)...I use 30 day lookbacks on many indicators as they give me a smoother, easier to interpret curve.

After you select your suit of indicators then you look for combinations that give you the best interpretation...I am a huge fan of Bollinger bands for example...where most books on TA devote at most a page on them....I could devote a chapter to their use and their indicator BBWidth. My chart with Slow Sto, MACD and BBwidth is awesome for predicting breakouts (up or down)

Anyway, thank you for your comment...but as I said, this is the wrong place to discuss how I interpret charts....If you want more look at my journal and ask any questions you wish there...I enjoy discussing my approach.

As a final comment...this website and Big Mike's moderation of it is absolutely amazing...I have patronized several other form type websites and the quality of the site and posters here is exemplary. Even though most here are daytrader/future/option players I do not feel unwelcome here.

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  #27 (permalink)
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Underexposed View Post

Why does this chart suggest a positive breakout?

1. The Slow Sto is remaining above 80 and a positive slope currently...if it drifted below 80 that would be bearish...Slo sto usually leads.
2. The MACD has flatlined since the end of the run and even rose slightly for a few days...if it had a bearish slope that would be bearish
3. the share price is well positioned between the BB's being consistently between the upper BB and the 20daySMA
4. The bullish cross of the 20daySMA through the 50daySMA and the upturn of the 50daySMA recently is bullish too.

SO...I would say that there will be a bullish breakout for this stock before Monday of next week.

Well I had the timing about rightwhen I said Monday and it started there and confirmed today, but I had the direction wrong {sigh}

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You can see how the complexion of that chart changed in the last 2 days....the Slo Sto dropped below 80 and falling and the MACD is definitely a neg slope this is now combined with the trigger of the rise in the BBwidth

this shows you that one should wait for the actual breakout (up or down) before making a decision to buy on a swing or long term hold. Making that decision during a consolidation phase is rolling the dice, (which I did in that analysis) and anything can happen.

This is just the beginning of the fall now the direction is defined...there should not be a pullback for a while unless it spikes far below the lower BB (if it does then there will be a pullback withing a couple of days).

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there may be a hesitation at $55.00 but I think a more solid support is $53.00

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