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FB - Facebook
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FB - Facebook

  #1 (permalink)
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FB - Facebook

Shares set to open @ $38 Friday.

They have tweaked standard practices and are allowing selling to start taking place at 91 days, where typical IPO's have 180 days before selling.

I can't short this stock fast enough. I despise Facebook and its model. But of course those aren't good reasons for a trade

Source: News Headlines


Quoting 
Typically, insiders and major holders in a company that has just gone public have to wait 180 days to sell their shares.

But in an atypical move, Facebook tweaked the so-called lock-up period to allow for a large amount of additional shares to be sold just three months from now.

“Facebook [FB 38.00 --- UNCH ] has an unusually short lock-up period with the free float now expected to increase by 55 percent after just 91 days (equates to $10 billion worth of stock at high-end of current IPO range),” cautioned Rich Greenfield, an analyst with BTIG, in a note to clients Thursday.

To boot, even more shares can be unlocked 151 days from now, according to the amended Facebook filing from Wednesday. This frees up enough stock so that the float—or number of shares openly traded—will more than double “before the traditional 180 lock-up period expires,” said Greenfield.

Facebook IPO

Lock-up periods are put in place so a single holder can’t cash in all their stock right away, sending volatility soaring and the shares of a new listing downward.

When lock-up periods do end, the increased supply of shares hitting the market typically weighs on the stock. For Facebook, this difficult time will come earlier and with double the supply of the initial offering.

“This sounds to me like the Facebook investors are scrambling over each other, yelling, ‘get me out!’ said Enis Taner, global macro editor at RiskReversal.com. “Meanwhile, the Muppets buy.”

However, this potentially weak period for the stock could be a buying opportunity, some investors said.

“The way to play Facebook I think is to look at LinkedIn,” said Josh Brown, author of The Reformed Broker blog and a financial advisor at Fusion Analytics. “It will have a big opening week, then you’ll have plenty of time to add on during the lockup, then it will hit new all-time highs again.”

Shares of LinkedIn [LNKD 104.95 -8.54 (-7.52%) ] the employment social network traded to a new high a couple months after its May 19 IPO last year, but the stock began to tank before and immediately after its lock-up period expired 180 days later on Nov. 19th. LinkedIn hit an all -time low of $59 ten days after that lock-up expiration before rallying back to above $108 this week.

But that was a traditional calendar for a new stock. Facebook is testing uncharted waters with this shorter lock-up and larger share offering.

“They’ve had some infighting over people wanting to sell so its sounds like they moved up the lock up so those people could get out,” speculated Stephen Weiss of Short Hills Capital.

Facebook may also be increasing the number of shares out there faster so that the stock can go into major indices – and the exchange-traded funds that track them — earlier than usual, traders said.

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Last edited by Big Mike; May 21st, 2012 at 09:26 AM.
 
  #3 (permalink)
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Just another bubble. Europeans are lucky that they were not allowed to participate in the IPO.

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Yeah, I noticed on Cramer's show today, he was ready to short it soon as possible. Also FB had put Cramer's own startup business based on a similar model out of business too. CNBC went all day about "The "Social" Offering" and kept showing the clip of Zuckerberg wearing the "hoodie".


Last edited by Cloudy; May 17th, 2012 at 10:53 PM.
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Post your FB day-trades here!

It might be a fun day to SIM day-trade, see how you do. What if everybody traded FB, with real-money or SIM, on Friday, post your results here? I'll try, though can only do it in the AM.

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Wouldn't at all be surprised to see $100 on Friday.

But check at the end of the year. My money says it will be below $38.

As for trading it on Friday, you have to be part of the über-class to be able to do that.

Mike

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  #7 (permalink)
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A few weeks ago there was a media teaser that Facebook was about to announce a life-saving feature.

I became full of hope that they were going to announce they were shutting down the service, thereby saving the lives of at least 900 million people around the globe.

Alas, they are still around, and, I never did find out what the life saving feature was.

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There are two...

quarters left in 2012. My guess is under 38 for the close of 2012 and say 18 bucks at the end of four quarters of the ipo. I will be a huge buyer of at the money Jan 14 puts if this thing trades 100.

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You know back in the day...


shodson View Post
It might be a fun day to SIM day-trade, see how you do. What if everybody traded FB, with real-money or SIM, on Friday, post your results here? I'll try, though can only do it in the AM.

you could have an amzn position against you 50 dollars in the morning and by the close make ten bucks a share. There where a bunch of 'em that trades that way....ahhh for the good old days.

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I've heard that FB won't start trading until 11:00am(est) on Fri..
Options might be a better way to go on the short side, if it pops big over the next few weeks..(remember Google?)
I might look to sell deep out of the money puts, if option prices get extreme..

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