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FB - Facebook
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FB - Facebook

  #51 (permalink)
Elite Member
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What do you guys think is a fair value for Facebook at the moment? I would say a market cap of 10 Billion Dollars. This would make for roughly 3,8 Dollars per Share I guess.

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  #52 (permalink)
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make your own estimate. how much money can they make on each FB account.
There are around 8-900 millions account. Now if the stock holders want value for the stocks. Then they have to come with more pressure for money making. and that might change FB to something people don't want. So you maybe remove 20% of account over time.

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  #53 (permalink)
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I have had another laugh back in the year 2000, when the German government sold the UMTS licenses to the pack of Mobile Phone Companies. After 3 weeks and 173 rounds of bidding, the German government had sold the first 6 blocks of a paired spectrum for more than € 50 billion - about $ 65 billion.

I mean these were just licenses for a few paired blocks of frequencies! If you divide the number of $ 65 billion by the German population of 80 million, you end up with $ 800 per capita. This means as a head of 4, those mobile phone operators paid an equivalent of $ 3,200 just because I was alive. Now calculate the turnover that you need to generate to make profits of $ 3,200. Let us be optimistic and assume that the companies have a 20% margin on turnover. In that case they would need to generate a turnover of $ 16,000 with every family of 4 to get back their investment.

This was the best news ever for the taxpayer.

And in the end the shareholders of the companies who purchased the licenses had to pay for the write offs. How easy it can be to transfer money from the rich (or the stupid) to the common wealth.

Facebook is different, as the proceeds don't go to the taxpayer. The role of the fools is the same as back in 2000.

Link to the analysis of this auction:

http://www.enpc.fr/ceras/jehiel/umts1.pdf

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  #54 (permalink)
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In my opinion there are more value if FB rise with NUGT and ERX.
But keep an eye on derivatives. any crack on derivatives and market can collapse huge.

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  #55 (permalink)
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"All the buy-side institutions are shorting it. You can get a borrow on it and everyone's leaning all over it. There's no bottom," Rovelli says. "The next catalyst is going to be earnings, which is three months away. So there's no reason to jump in here. You're catching a falling knife."


Facebook's Stock May Keep Falling: 'There's No Bottom'

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #56 (permalink)
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This guy say it all.
Muathe.com Stock Market Analysis Week of 05/21/2012 - YouTube

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  #57 (permalink)
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Shorting FB

Cmon guys, everyone sounds a little bitter on this FB mess, ok ok so we werent the lucky few who had access to pre IPO shares, get over it. People shouldnt be so concerned with shorting FB as waiting for a 50% discount to buy shares. At the end of the day FB isnt going anywhere and they are going to make money, they have several other developments that will generate profits for them so I wouldnt worry too much about their ability to continue as a going concern. Wait for the sellers to dry up and throw some shares in your portfolios for the long haul, on the cheap! Im holding out for the $20 range. In a couple years it wouldn't shock me to see triple digit prices assuming they stop issuing shares. Cmon FB just fall a little further so I can get my discount

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  #58 (permalink)
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Lunacy at worst...


MadTr8r View Post
Cmon guys, everyone sounds a little bitter on this FB mess, ok ok so we werent the lucky few who had access to pre IPO shares, get over it. People shouldnt be so concerned with shorting FB as waiting for a 50% discount to buy shares. At the end of the day FB isnt going anywhere and they are going to make money, they have several other developments that will generate profits for them so I wouldnt worry too much about their ability to continue as a going concern. Wait for the sellers to dry up and throw some shares in your portfolios for the long haul, on the cheap! Im holding out for the $20 range. In a couple years it wouldn't shock me to see triple digit prices assuming they stop issuing shares. Cmon FB just fall a little further so I can get my discount

anecdotal at best.

Aside from trying to monetize user privacy can you describe the revenues and why you believe price might better than triple? What are the other developments that might drive an actual product life cycle for this company?

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  #59 (permalink)
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Right...


jta3 View Post
make your own estimate. how much money can they make on each FB account.
There are around 8-900 millions account. Now if the stock holders want value for the stocks. Then they have to come with more pressure for money making. and that might change FB to something people don't want. So you maybe remove 20% of account over time.

How many shares outstanding in the public float plus treasury stock and authorized over allotments and you have a number of shares and a number of FB users. Simple to find the revenue per member to equal each penny in net earnings.

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  #60 (permalink)
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MadTr8r View Post
Cmon guys, everyone sounds a little bitter on this FB mess, ok ok so we werent the lucky few who had access to pre IPO shares, get over it. People shouldnt be so concerned with shorting FB as waiting for a 50% discount to buy shares. At the end of the day FB isnt going anywhere and they are going to make money, they have several other developments that will generate profits for them so I wouldnt worry too much about their ability to continue as a going concern. Wait for the sellers to dry up and throw some shares in your portfolios for the long haul, on the cheap! Im holding out for the $20 range. In a couple years it wouldn't shock me to see triple digit prices assuming they stop issuing shares. Cmon FB just fall a little further so I can get my discount

lol bitter. Don't think anyone is bitter here. I use facebook but hate it. Think often about deleting my account but would lose contact with many old friends. I do like Google + much better so maybe eventually it gets a critical mass and I delete fb. But surely not bitter because I did not get any pre IPO shares.

It is valued at an obscene multiple. Going to be very difficult for FB to generate much more revenue than they do now without making it even less tolerable to be on the site. I think we are all cheering a little bit because the Street for once is showing a small bit of rationality. Stock is still to high but is going in right direction.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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