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FB - Facebook
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FB - Facebook

  #21 (permalink)
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Sold!


aligator View Post
Good luck @wldman. No question that FB may be way over it's head at $38. But, they seem to be real evil smart to offer FB at a premium at a time in May when market historically goes south as is doing now. Coming Fall, when historically markets go north there will be a lot of institutional, foreign, and public money to plunge into FB at perceived bargain levels. Usually, takes 4-6 quarters before public has a picture of earning yields and growth potential.

Who knows, Apple was a dog at $40 and nobody saw the light for them. So, I will wait until the hype subsides and talking heads are back in their cocoons. There will be plenty of room between $38 and $600 if they turn out to be legit and in par with Google (for now).

Cheers!

Apple actually has a product and a consistent pipeline. Facebook gathers data on people who use facebook....big deal. Everyone that will use facebook is using facebook and a buying decision from a consumer will still require more than when they potty and what food network recipe they like. I used FB for a few years and past reconnecting with a few old friends found it to be a huge time wasting distraction. I never clicked on a single ad, not once. So an interested party could know my web habits, good luck turning that into cash. SOLD!

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  #22 (permalink)
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Facebook has 900 million users and annual revenues of about US-$ 3.71 billion in 2011.

The prospectus of the IPO can be found here:

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/288894/facebook-prospectus.pdf

85% of the revenues come from online advertising
12% of the revenues are generated by Zynga online games (revenues declining)

Earnings per share (diluted) are

2009 $ 0.10
2010 $ 0.28
2011 $ 0.46

Compared to the emission price of $ 38, the dividend yield is about 1.2 %. To me this does not look like an attractive deal. It reminds me the IPO of Deutsche Telekom and many more ....

Below attached the stock chart of Deutsche Telekom since its IPO in 1996. The price of the initial public offering was € 14.57, the secondary offerings were made at € 39.50 and € 66.50.

A bubble can go a long way, but in the end it will burst. Maybe it is possible to make money with the Facebook hype over the next years.

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  #23 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
It's more similar to Google than anything else, in my opinion. But with a much more evil nature since you aren't purposely going to Google to share stuff about your personal life.



Mike

People go to Google to find things , they click on the ads that pop up because the ads relate to their search.

The ads aren't working for FB as well as ads work for Google. General Motors cancelled their ads on FB yesterday saying they weren't cost justified.

When I was a young fella , companies went public to raise money to expand a profitable enterprise. Today companies go public so that the founders and Wall Street can cash out at the retail customers expense.

Some things really were better in the old days.

I know I certainly was...

I'm just a simple man trading a simple plan.

My daddy always said, "Every day above ground is a good day!"
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  #24 (permalink)
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sorry for the newbie question, but when you say

"allowing selling to start taking place at 91 days"

does that mean the stocks will keep going up till then?

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  #25 (permalink)
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shodson View Post
It might be a fun day to SIM day-trade, see how you do. What if everybody traded FB, with real-money or SIM, on Friday, post your results here? I'll try, though can only do it in the AM.

Hi @shodson haven't seen you lately, great idea. I'm sure there are some pretty sweaty pale skinned programmers hoping this IPO actually works! Put me down as a buyer, 1,000,000 shares @ $.01 "fill or kill" and I'll exit @ MOC.

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  #26 (permalink)
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Most people on facebook hate facebook. I think this presents some long term problems for facebook. I hope it runs into the stratosphere then once they allow shorting and options could be a good short. I will only short it with options though. I saw a stat the other day that basically said facebook makes around $4 per subscriber on ads. But to justify IPO valuation they need $200 per subscriber. $200 per will never happen.

"The day I became a winning trader was the day it became boring. Daily losses no longer bother me and daily wins no longer excited me. Took years of pain and busting a few accounts before finally got my mind right. I survived the darkness within and now just chillax and let my black box do the work."
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  #27 (permalink)
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My guess for today:
Open 51
High 63
Close 52


For comparison: LinkedIn IPO
http://www.nanex.net/aqck/3096.html

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  #28 (permalink)
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ThatManFromTexas View Post
When I was a young fella , companies went public to raise money to expand a profitable enterprise. Today companies go public so that the founders and Wall Street can cash out at the retail customers expense.

Some things really were better in the old days.

I know I certainly was...

Today there are more fools than in the old days. That is the fault of the old fools.

All those fools want to spent their money, and the founders and Wall Street are only cashing out to help them.

In fact it is a benevolent deed to take the money of the retail customers, as they don't need it, and also the money can be now be used to faciltitate quantitative easing and maintain the gambling departments of the large banks.

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  #29 (permalink)
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thanks for your info on FB option.
I believe there will be many wining chance to trade FB option.
Let's share idea here.
thanks


Cogito ergo sum View Post
If the Facebook IPO is successful and trading on the shares begin friday the 18th, the first trading day for FB options will be Tuesday the 29th (the 28th would actually be the first day the options would be eligible, but that’s Memorial Day).

I will be exploring some options strategies to exploit skew which should offer some interesting risk reward trades.
I expect the options to be traded actively and jacked on vega, thus trading at a premium. Hyped s stocks seem to have the ability to run good for a sustained period of time, even on hefty valuations before things become more rational. E.G. NFLX.


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  #30 (permalink)
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So, within an hour...


the stock touches its offering price and has to be supported by the greenshoe...great. Like I said SOLD!

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