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Precious Metals: Stocks and ETFs
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Precious Metals: Stocks and ETFs

  #111 (permalink)
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29JAN14

Weekly stoch still pointing up. a little birdie told me this is wave 4 of a 5 wave pattern:

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  #112 (permalink)
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30JAN14

Thursday already. Lacking paint bars. Down day, big enough to drive the daily stoch below the critical green line of 68, starting to hook the weekly stoch.

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  #113 (permalink)
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31JAN14 & 03FEB14


Friday then Monday:

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  #114 (permalink)
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04FEB14

Tuesday:

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looks like GLD wants to test the recent highs. look for divergence in the daily stoch.

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  #115 (permalink)
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01JULY14

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Update for the thread. Read the chart.

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  #116 (permalink)
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I have moved my discussions on gold here as I think it belongs here rather than in my journal.

I like looking at the price of gold because I like gold mining stocks and with any mining company their worth and hence share price is directly related to the price of the commodity they mine. It does not matter if it is zinc, lead, copper, gold, silver .... whatever....a rise in the commodity price means a rise in their share price.

In my journal I have done a complete technical analysis about 8 days ago where the conclusion was bearish and the price did fall and was caught at a support line. You can read my analysis at that time using this link

https://futures.io/trading-journals/30636-underexposed-canadian-stock-journal-28.html#post426985

Now, we can see if things have changed...here is a chart showing support resistance lines that I see.


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The solid lines are major resistance/support and the dotted lines are minor resistance support.. Minor lines come and go but when you see one or more lines cross each other then that is a more powerful support or resistance.

You see this in this chart where the dotted green horizontal line at about $1270 crosses the solid green line...it always fascinates me when a drop in price halts at such a point....

The diagonal dotted red line shows the resistance line as the price of gold fell. You can see that this line has been breached...a positive sign and the only use for this line in future is if the main support line fails

the dotted horizontal line is a resistance line currently but has been a support in the past as well...remember ceilings become floors and floors become ceilings when breached.

So from this chart we see an improvement in the trend of the price of gold....it is still tenuous as we are bouncing on the support but it looks like the potential for a rise exists.

So let us do a complete analysis....bear in mind the following charts do not include today's price, which is shown in the above chart, because they are end of day(EOD) charts


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This is not a bullish chart...we are on the downside of a bollie slide.

Note the Slow Sto at the end of May and that of today...they both look alike and are bearish.

Similarly MACD in the time frame looks the same and is also bearish

There is no bull/bear designation for BBwidth....it is a trigger to a movement and as such is triggering a bear fall (if the slow Sto and MACD were rising this would be a bull trigger).....HOWEVER note the strength of the May 27 rise of BBWidth...it has a strong slope...the current slope is weaker, so far anyway

At this point the chart is mildly bearish


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The CMF underlay is bearish...the only saving grace is that the current low is not lower than the early August lows...this is bearish as we are stuck in the mud.

The RSI is bearish...the slope of the RSI is negative and below 50

There is indecision in the DI+/- this cross and recross of the red/green lines indicates this (I call this chaining)...It is bearish as the red is on top but not full on strong bearish at this point.


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This is a very bearish chart...the price is far below the green cloud...that lower edge of the green cloud is a resistance...I drew roughly the candle that happened today and yeah, it had a nice rise today...but don't be fooled...it is nice but not the end of a bear run particularly.

the OnBal Vol is bear as is the CCI

Conclusion

There is nothing bullish in this analysis...we have a solid green support in that first chart to hopefully save us from falling further....but that is it for now...if anything the situation looks as bad as that previous analysis at the very least. I did not go through the bull/bear cancellation as nothing was bullish.

The best I see is a slow climb up that green line and hopefully no breach for further drops. The solid red resistance and green support are coming together slowly but a resolution to this convergence is at least a month away.

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  #117 (permalink)
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well, well well....the supports have held and we are rising again as shown in the following charts

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here you can see the bounce within this wedge of solid resistance/support lines. don't get too excited though as there is pretty strong resistances ahead...It might test the $1320 resistance whether it passes this point remains to be seen...I still don't expect a strong movement until mid Sept.

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this chart shows that the slide was more of a head-fake. It is probably aiming for the 20daySMA where it will wind around for a while

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  #118 (permalink)
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Well that "head-fake" I saw last time did not last long....it turned out to be just a rest before a huge plunge,

I wish I understood the fundamentals of gold better because this does not make much sense to me given the world situation....perhaps we have become too numb to world events now.

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The above is a real long term weekly view and as you can see we are challenging a very solid support right now and from the looks of it, where this support be breached, the price would be headed to $1100 and the support dotted line is just a reference...it will be a really weak support as it is based on ancient history

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You can see the escalation of the slopes of the resistance/support lines in this six month chart. It cannot get much bearish as far the Slow Sto is concerned and the neg slope of the MACD and pos slope of the BBWidth show no reversal...Totally Bear

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this is horribly bearish....the RSI is relentless in its falling slope , the CMF is stuck in the mud and the DI +/- is diverging with no sign of reversing direction.

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Ditto for the above chart...nothing positive to say.

Conclusion: BEAR Rough days ahead for gold holders...we could easily see $1100 in the future unless this last support holds and so far to doesn't look good

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  #119 (permalink)
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After some searching in the forum, it seems this is the main gold thread in here. Pitty is not more active/populated. Either way, wanted to share this: Swiss Vote on Central Bank Gold Could Limit Manipulation. Happening on Nov/30. Would make the SNB go and buy 1.5k tons of god in addition to the 1k it already has. No opinion polls out yet, will be published later this month.

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  #120 (permalink)
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I do confess to be attracted by Gold but the favour is not returned as I have lost a fair bit of money on the speculation that small swings will turn into long gains and get jilted every time. I don't put the money into bullion or futures but rather into gold mining stocks...good producers....stay away from exploration companies...they are selling golden dreams only.

it has been a rough 6 weeks with the price threatening to drop to $1100/oz or $1000/oz {yikes!!}. There has been a small reversal... let us see how strong it is.


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this chart shows the rocky road ahead...we are in that band of resistance now but that is just the start not the end of troubles...I am not all that confident that we will blast through this morass. Perhaps crawl ahead a bit and that is what it will take...a crawl IMHO


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You can see the lattice work of resistances ahead...you also see we are currently traveling up a channel. To get a better look at this movement let's look at an hourly chart


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here you see a fairly well defined ascending wedge formation. Unfortunately such a pattern is traditionally a Bearish formation. We are nearing the point where these formations resolve themselves so I do not think that this mini bull run will be lasting.


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Here is the trigger chart. We see the classic MACD/BBwidth pinch in the bottom blue circle.... this is more than just a rest as can be seen....this is a major consolidation... note in the above circle how during such a consolidation the tendency of the price is to gravitate directly to the 20daySMA. This is the wedge that we saw above and is the reason why this run is almost over. From this point the price will probably twist around the 20daySMA until the BB's get tight.... to me this will be 10 - 20 business days of sideways movement untill the BBwidth falls to a "trigger" level. So long tern (few weeks) this is a neutral time....short term the bull run is or almost over.

You can see this in the Slow Sto which has flattened as it hit 50 in its chart...no will to go on.


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this is a sentiment chart for me.... you can see all indicators are very mildly bullish but with an underlying weakness.

From the top the CMF is still in the mud though it is improving ... frankly it looks very much like the formation earlier. The RSI has been strong coming off the bottom but does it have the strength to pass 50... it seems to be flattening out now . The ADX DI+/- is showing a second attempt to make a bullish green over red cross with a falling black ADX line which suggests to me that it will fail.


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Finally the ichimoku chart, where you see the red clouds above the price...the edges relate quite well to the ones we saw in the P&F chart....that whole red cloud looks menacing...but looking forward it gets better with the cloud having a thin choke... perhaps this can be sneaked through. In the circle the thin red/blue lines are far apart with no real sign of closure.

the onBal Vol is neutral and the CCI is very mildly bullish


Conclusion

I am not excited enough by these charts to re-enter gold stocks. I see a pull back on the horizon and gold stock react rather negatively to that.

I see tough times ahead.... just a watch for me at this point.

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