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The MARKET, Indices, ETFs and other stocks
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The MARKET, Indices, ETFs and other stocks

  #101 (permalink)
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26 June 2014

I have been MIA at futures.io (formerly BMT). I am still following the charts and will be back at futures.io (formerly BMT) sooner then later.

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Stock Market Warning: My view from the cheap seats.

Price bars are neutral. daily stoch has turned down after divergence into the middle drop zone. weekly stoch has crossed. First Key: price holds 25 SMA - green line.

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  #102 (permalink)
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27 JUNE 14

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Okay, a hook in the daily stochastics with a green inside bar bouncing off the 25 SMA. going for a hat trick of resistance with divergence?

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  #103 (permalink)
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01JULY14


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Okay bounce off the 25SMA. Penetrating resistance for a new high? 200?

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UPDATE

It's been a while for an update. Even in a rally price always moves back to the (a) (20) the SMA (EMA).

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White Bar

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should pull back to the (moving) average

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Light Sweet Oil - West Texas Intermediate Spot EOD

the price of oil is driving the economy. I find it ironic that when the price/barrel spikes high (over $110/barrel)... the market suffers and when the price spikes low... the market suffers for different reasons.

There does not seem to be a Goldilocks range where everyone is happy.


there looks to be another plunge again after 2 months of relative calm... that is if a price range of $45 - $55 can be a place of calm {sigh}

So I thought I would do my version of TA on the West Texas Intermediate EOD spot price for Light Sweet Crude which is pretty much the bench mark price for oil in North America.

first let us look at the FinViz light sweet crude futures chart


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As you can see we were in a pretty well defined channel with negative slope but today the price has plunged through the green support line to $45.00 at this point. Yikes!!!

this won't be reflected in the following charts as they are end of day (EOD) charts but that plunge is disturbing


P&F chart

I post 2 P&F charts here...the first is the current chart with a normal box size to reflect what is going on right now and the second chart is a more coarse view that shows where this price may end up if the current slide continues and the support at $44.50 breaks.


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In the first chart you can see we are threatening to burst through that support at $44.50... in order to see the next possible support we must look all the way back to 2009 at the end of the financial crisis to see that this latest price could fall to $35.00 before it finds support... $35.00 SHOULD be the absolute bottom...to breach that level would be a disaster.

Trigger chart


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Well the blue box shows a bearish downturn (declining Slow Sto and MACD with rise in BBwidth) has begun again after 6 weeks of relative calm at $50/barrel. We already saw the final daily price so far is about $45.00 so the update to this chart will continue that bear.... Will it breach that $44.50 support seen earlier.... yep...I think so

Sentiment chart


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this is all bearish... not full on bear at present but there is no real redeeming feature in the chart. The FORCE(100) has turned to a neg slope, the RSI(30) has followed suit and the DI+/- lines are bearishly diverging

Not good for holding that $44.50 support


Ichimoku chart


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Not good.... of interest in the Ichi chart is how that lower border of the red cloud in the blue circle acted as a support for the last 6 weeks.... but that has failed now and we are below the red cloud now... not good....

the thin red / blue lines are bearishly diverging and the indicators below are also bearish.


Conclusion

It looks like that support at $44.50 will not hold. The next support {shudder} will be at about $35.00....

From a Canadian perspective our economy will suffer another hit if this happens... the layoffs and budget spending curtailment for 2015 will continue as oil companies struggle to stay afloat on these lower prices to come.

If you have been reading my Canadian journal I am in 100% cash... I won't be in any long term trade for a while at this rate...

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