Big Mike 

Bobby's homework: Stop trading cash. Create a public journal on nexusfi.com (formerly BMT) and post to it at least daily. At the end of each week, go back and read the prior two weeks of journal entries and ask yourself if you are moving forward, or if you are going in circles. Spend the next few months creating and testing your own methodology. The method is created by you. You come up with it. Others can influence you, but you do not copy others. After you have a hundred or more trades taken in sim and have analyzed the data every way you know how, and it has positive expectancy, then you can go back to cash. When ready to go back cash, open a mini or micro forex account and trade at maximum $1/pip size until you have another 100 trades to analyze in cash mode. Analyze those, and compare them to your sim trades. Identify differences and come up with detailed plans to account for and minimize the differences going forward. If your 100 trades at $1/pip were net profitable, you can increase to $2/pip for the next 100 trades. Mike

Excellent advice. To make the task less daunting, you don't even have to start from scratch. The current method you are trading is hidden divergence, and it seems to resonate with you. Ok, start from there. You said someone told you it has a 79% win ratio, well we proved earlier that number (a part of expectancy) means nothing unless you derive it yourself specifically in your own method. So apply all that BigMike suggests, using this hidden divergence setup as your base, and develop an entry, stop, exit, and trade management systematic process around it. The composite of all these things together developed through the process BigMike suggests will become you own personal method. You will realize at the end of this process that you will have gotten further then you ever have before.

Here's an explanation of expectancy https://www.tradermike.net/2004/05/trading_101_expectancy/
Here's an Excel expectancy calculator

Van Tharp's Max Expectancy Here is a spreadsheet that can be used to calculate expectancy if you like to use Excel instead of Ninja.

monpere 

Excellent advice. To make the task less daunting, you don't even have to start from scratch. The current method you are trading is hidden divergence, and it seems to resonate with you. Ok, start from there. You said someone told you it has a 79% win ratio, well we proved earlier that number (a part of expectancy) means nothing unless you derive it yourself specifically in your own method. So apply all that BigMike suggests, using this hidden divergence setup as your base, and develop an entry, stop, exit, and trade management systematic process around it. The composite of all these things together developed through the process BigMike suggests will become you own personal method. You will realize at the end of this process that you will have gotten further then you ever have before. Here's an explanation of expectancy Trading 101: [AUTOLINK]Expectancy[/AUTOLINK] ? TraderMike.net Here's an Excel expectancy calculator Van Tharp's Max Expectancy Here is a spreadsheet that can be used to calculate expectancy if you like to use Excel instead of Ninja.

Monpere,

Sometimes we all assume someone knows far less than he really does, and sometimes we assume he knows more than he really does. Guess its just human nature.
Thanks. I do know about positve expectancy for some time. Thats how I was able to weed out a lot of those systems I looked at.
Hey the expectancy on the trade I posted was 2 ticks risk, 8 ticks reward(1/4) I calc'ed it BEFORE taking the trade, including commish.

Really nice feedback in the last 1/2 dozen posts!

Let's see........one year of tuition at Harvard $37,000.00...........Bobby's investment in trading education $10,000.00......so you've gone to trading school the equivilent of 1/4 year......not including room and board books health insurance fees etc. So....realistically.....how much money do you expect to make with the equivilent 1/4 year of trading college under your belt?

Jeff

Surly 

I can't think of a quote in the english language that seems more relevant to this thread. If you want to succeed at trading then STOP READING THIS THREAD and get back to your screen and start collecting statistics on a consistent, disciplined trading approach. I, at least, believe you'll learn more from that exercise than anything you could learn from anyone on this forum. If you can't do that, you have no hope of overcoming the barriers on the way to successful trading. surly

A great many would disagree with your post. They feel it is more about letting go then it is about 'gaining knowledge'.

I don't know which is 'right' and don't believe there to be the 'right' way. Screen time is definitely needed, but like you hinted at. The 'force' is in each of us, will we ever tap it? Good question.

monpere 

Excellent advice. To make the task less daunting, you don't even have to start from scratch. The current method you are trading is hidden divergence, and it seems to resonate with you. Ok, start from there. You said someone told you it has a 79% win ratio, well we proved earlier that number (a part of expectancy) means nothing unless you derive it yourself specifically in your own method. So apply all that BigMike suggests, using this hidden divergence setup as your base, and develop an entry, stop, exit, and trade management systematic process around it. The composite of all these things together developed through the process BigMike suggests will become you own personal method. You will realize at the end of this process that you will have gotten further then you ever have before. Here's an explanation of expectancy Trading 101: [AUTOLINK]Expectancy[/AUTOLINK] ? TraderMike.net Here's an Excel expectancy calculator Van Tharp's Max Expectancy Here is a spreadsheet that can be used to calculate expectancy if you like to use Excel instead of Ninja.

@monpere do you know a good post on hidden divergence? I know I have seen it, but figured you would know the best or most 'real'.

bobbyacim 

Monpere, Sometimes we all assume someone knows far less than he really does, and sometimes we assume he knows more than he really does. Guess its just human nature. Thanks. I do know about positve expectancy for some time. Thats how I was able to weed out a lot of those systems I looked at. Hey the expectancy on the trade I posted was 2 ticks risk, 8 ticks reward(1/4) I calc'ed it BEFORE taking the trade, including commish. Really nice feedback in the last 1/2 dozen posts!

What you described is the reward/risk ratio for the trade. It is calculated on a trade by trade basis. Expectancy is calculated on the entire method based on a large sample of trades. That's why i requires some work on your part. Have to go through many trades (historically, or forward in real time) to get the numbers. Take a quick look at the links.

bobbyacim 

Now, Now. Monpere and Bluemele, Slowly I am starting to come around, hey I might even take the leap of faith someday and get on a plane knowing FULL well that the pilot has only SIM time under his belt, would you care to join me?

Haha, funny that you mentioned this. Sure I would join, if i could be the pilot! I'm a MS flightsim nut and have played about 2500+ hrs on the various MSFS versions since the 90's. I recall a news story where they let a MS simmer fly a traffic pattern in a Cessna all by himself (with a pilot copilot monitoring of course, and journalist) and he did fine! a little hard landing but it was ok. In some way jetliners may be easier to fly with their FMC (flight management computer) and mostly autopilot controlled flightpaths. Other much more involved nuts at www.avsim.com and of course lots of videos and such of MSFS on youtube with searching.. And I'm sure there must be a few of you who are also MSFS nuts on here.

At first when there wasn't as much info on the net, I wouldn't know how to land at all. Then I read real pilot's tutorials for sim pilots , i.e. a whole navigation course and practiced vor , adf, circular vor landings, ils etc. Then on to dual-props then my favorite the heavys. In some ways, 747 is easier to "program"/fly than Airbus 320's , MD-11 and the CRJs/ERJs. Real 737 pilot who got 747 certified a couple of years ago has had his company make realistic looking simulations of the 747 and MD11. PMDG Simulations
they have been working on a new version of the 737 NG already for 3+ years! (update: omigosh, I just saw it, they plan to release their 737/700-900 for FSX in a week! after so many years of saying it's coming soon.. yay! 737-700/800 is my favorite on old pmdg NG for FS9 "Soon" defined.... - The AVSIM Forums)

That said, nope, it has not helped my trading any. If I do everything by the book simulated with correct procedures and specific aircraft procedures (which can take upwards of an hour to simulate), then my crash % is pretty much 0%. If I'm goofing off and skipping and cutting corners , (like not going around when bad approach) my crash % could be 2%. At highest "realistic" difficulty settings on FSX. It's a different discipline and a lot more structured and "safe" than trading. Even with abrupt weather changes, planes can adjust altitude or flightplan, help from traffic and approach/waypoint controllers etc. Probably the most important skills for a real pilot are dealing with emergencies which they have to get re-tested and certified on a plane type like every six-twelve months on real airliner physical cockpit simulators. On a normal routine, an airliner pilot would be worried about busting an altitude on approach and incurring a hefty fine. Please forgive the unrelated screenshots. Mostly for Bobbyaicm or anyone interested.

bluemele 

@ monpere do you know a good post on hidden divergence? I know I have seen it, but figured you would know the best or most 'real'.

Don't recall seeing any here. What I know about hidden divergence I learned from Felton, but as I said, I never was comfortable with the concept and the market phenomenon behind it, so I never tested it and never traded it. I trade basic divergence, I view the concept as the indicator showing that the momentum is decreasing, so the indicator starts decelerating faster then price and ultimately price follows it. But hidden divergence always seemed counter intuitive to me, because i.e. in an uptrend the indicator starts accelerating down in order to indicate a continuation up. I could never wrap my brain around that. It's totally the reverse of the previous idea. I'm sure the concept might work fine, but it never resonated with me as much as straight basic divergence. I don't believe anyone can trade a concept they don't fully understand or are not comfortable with, they will never have confidence in it.

bobbyacim 

Hey the expectancy on the trade I posted was 2 ticks risk, 8 ticks reward(1/4) I calc'ed it BEFORE taking the trade, including commish.

Too funny. We just knew you didn't know what expectancy was ;-)

I feel posting in this thread is a masochistic exercise, as I doubt you want to do the work required to be a successful trader. I think most profitable traders on this board, myself included, has spent countless hours researching the markets statistically and trying to conceptualize an approach to become profitable.

The markets are a lot like message boards; There is a lot of noise and it takes a while to figure out who/what to ignore, and what that actually is of importance. This can be strenuous and tedious work, thus most give up along the way. It seems you have spent a lot of time and effort, but you have exclusively been searching for a method to copy. Alas, vendors selling systems, do not have anything to sell... You are far better off taking some math/statistics classes at your local university...

As it seems that you do not possess the motivation to do self-directed analysis, maybe you should consider approaching a reputable prop firm? There you might get some direction, and you will also meet profitable traders, for which you so desperately yearn.

Good luck, I am unsubscribing now.

EDIT: I apologize if I came across a bit harsh, but you have been offered some decent in this thread. Yet you seem to neglect it and instead continue your search for a system to copy, while demanding broker statements from people offering help. That is not the way to achieve profitability. You might want reconsider your trading venture, but at least do not trade with real money until you have a rational approach. Expect to spend months on research and studying, do not waste your trading account on systems with negative expectancy....

Ok, now I'm out of here...