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taking a break from the charts today.Not even logging on.FOMC and contract rollover and inventory...could be crazy, could be dead...too much nuttiness for me
6/20
huge gap down today....these have always been difficult for me...Like Al Brooks says...trend days, the entries can be ugly.Any attempt to fade, gets head faked,and the rug is pulled.With the eth vwap sloping down, i think a reasonable strategy, is no fades until back in value(eth).The 2 fades i took both gave me some ticks, but failed.I have been really struggling with my execution, and i need to resolve this.I have tried everything.Volume surges, ma crosses, etc.im thinking that , in accordance with the overall direction of the market, just pick the previous swing hi/low,and consider entries in accordance with my risk tolerance.For ex, if im looking for a short, like today, and everything is in line, identify where the stop is, and take the trade within my r:r parameter.Volume surges are nice, and ultimately, if i take a short entry, and price moves against me, but the premise is still valid, take a cheap add,even a few ticks from my stop.It feels like im so close, but yet, so far.
I wont take a trade that has a larger risk than 20 ticks, and typically, the risk is 10-12 ticks.I feel like my assesment of the order flow is much better, so lets just focus on executing, and taking our shots.I gotta get over this hump!!
6/21
had a stop on the long.....delta was really diverging.Initially, i could have went long earlier, before the move up..however, i dont like to challenge a sloping vwap(val).I waited till we broke it, and then went long, stop loss properly placed below lows.Ilooked up at the ym, and it was tanking.Ok, np.My problem with any indicator with lines, is i get fixated on the lines as a level.In this case, i took the loss,and had a a short order in ,which price hit, but didnt fill.
Big volatility in the markets, so this is to be expected i suppose.
For a while, i have been giving alot of thought on how to execute.As i mentioned, ive tried lots of ways, ma crosses,vol surges,etc.Now,I try to discern a bias ,long or short, and look at the swing hi/lows,and determine where my stop will be.Then, i determine how many ticks im willing to risk.The order is placed, and i wait for it to get filled.This is working better so far.The risk is much more managable.Its like tossing a hundred on the table, and if executed, i can just watch.
As far as the eth vwap goes, i still struggle , as i said ....the lines.I think it is better to just focus on the slope of the eth vwap, and understand that if there is a slope, thats a bias.So what happens when the delta starts to diverge this?It means be prepared for a potential change.I think that the slope outweighs the delta in this case,and i should evaluate the swing highs with the prevailing eth (vwap)bias, and consider fades when the vwap flattens out.Todays short is interesting, because the location isnt the greatest, but my risk was 15 ticks, which i was willing to risk.The slope of the vwap conflicted with the delta....vwap won.On a good note, i pressed the reset button, and started looking for shorts.Market collapsed, and my missed entry was the high, as the cl dropped 100 ticks.....still going...kids have been home, going to camp in 2 weeks....honestly, its a bit aggravating when theyre banging on the door trying to get in,,,oy
working on execution,which has always been an issue.I feel like i have a decent idea of the levels,but executing(or not)is such a huge part of it(i think)
Ive been working on a specific type of execution which is based on delta.I can only assume that delta is close enough to order flow that i can understand.I have taken everything off the charts except delta.Im not saying that vwap isnt necessary or important.I have such a hard time with lines.Whether its vwap,moving avgs, etc.I cant accept the fact that they are "round about" areas, and i always treat them as absolutes.Until i am mature enough to do that,i will leave them off.
The line on the chart is cumulative delta.I plot it as a solid line, and put it in the the same panel as price.What a trip.And, predictably , im looking for devergences.When delta starts to make a HL or a LH, i am assuming that order flow is changing...A simple logic.I know......resting orders.....At this point, i understand that delta does not always clearly depict buys vs sells....but...its good enough, so far as i can tell.Nothing is perfect, obviously.I am going on vacation all of next week, so im going to post a few charts, just for me to get aquainted with.Honestly, its so visual, and easy to see.
I am also using tpo for structure, and the footprint.Slowly, i am getting comfortable with the footprint...
Time will tell if this will work, as i i have had many instances when i thought i was on to something, only to see it pitter out quickly.But, it seems logical...No prices are equal, as volume dictates the validity of the auction...
I havent been consistent with my journal, as i have been figuring things out(or not).Happy 4th!!
