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Trading

  #111 (permalink)
 
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 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Avoiding the chop with the ADX (141

The areas below the dotted purple line on the ADX which I've draw highlight boxes on are supposed to be chop areas.


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  #112 (permalink)
 
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 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Tomorrow is FOMC Tuesday (13:00CT)


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  #113 (permalink)
 
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 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Tuesday, April 05, 2011

Didn’t get to sleep until 10:40PST and awake at 5:40 and up at 6:05am. Net = 6.5hrs sleep.

It is now 12:06CT. I have the morning numbers in – no hand charts made yet. Range estimates seem way too low at about 8pts. Thinking there will be a slow grind upwards, rising and falling, slowly chipping away at the stops. See chart.

[IMG]http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5184/5592845278_20881774ee_b.jpg[/IMG]


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  #114 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Buying for FOMC high spike
13:17
in for 2 with 1 remaining.
BOT 1 at 1331.75 @ 13:13
BOT 1 at 1331.25 @ 13:18

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  #115 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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BOT 1326.25
SLD 1323.25 -stopped out at -3
Net = -3pts

-3 is my maximum stop for the system. However, the system is for RTH hours and the evening before estimates are adjusted with the o/n and pre-open price action. Originally I had set the default stop for maximum 5 pts. About 1 year ago I adjusted to downward to 3 pts and adjusted the formulae for 3 pts maximum.

This is partly because during the day I can fine tune the H/L estimates especially the SE. So once the FE is in place then I can get a better idea of the SE.

I had forgotten that I had tightening the maximum stop to 3pts and last night's order I put in the stop from a spreadsheet printout. The o/n low was 1323.00 @3:18. This means I was stopped out by one tick!

So for o/n I will go back to 5pts.

Very annoying turn a great trade into a losing trade. We had had the high of 1334.25 @ 12:12. This means that with a 5 pt stop, which would not have been hit, I would have been at +8pts. As the estimated range reduced to 8.50 from 9.75 last night, 8.50 gives 1333.75 (1325.25+8.50), so a good sell target - as I need the one tick to ensure a fill.

All in all though it was a losing trade I don't feel badly about it. I was on the correct side of the trade, the estimate of the low was reasonably close for blind shooting, and I have identified and corrected the problem.

resolution for improvement
I think I will start making a separate estimate for the o/n trades.

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  #116 (permalink)
 
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 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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overnight estimate of h/l
1333-1325.50

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  #117 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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aquarian1 View Post
overnight estimate of h/l
1333-1325.50

Actual o/n
1336.50
1326

so bottom off by +0.50 - I've adjusted the formula
late state today - not enough sleep
gotta rush back to work
here's a map for today.


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  #118 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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There were not fills on the overnight orders and I canceled them once on-line.

Asleep at 10:50 broken sleep and struggled to get up after 3:30 alarm finally up at 5:30PST
6.5 hrs. Deficit this week 7hrs. Went for a walk yesterday => score 1 of 3.

Trades:
Monday +3.0
Tuesday -3.0



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  #119 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
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Practice trading

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  #120 (permalink)
 
aquarian1's Avatar
 aquarian1 
Point Roberts, WA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB and free NT
Broker: IB
Trading: ES
Posts: 4,034 since Dec 2010
Thanks Given: 1,509
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I didn't get filled on the sell 1332.75.
I'm not sure why as it went to 1333.
(Perhaps "It is the mystery of the dance." - Lisa puts her tap shoes on episode.)

So we have a +0.25 for today.

In other news the range estimate was way to wide.

I think I've figured out why and will adjust things after the closing data wrap-up.


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