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7:42
Didn't get to bed on time but did get up with the alarm and I'm struggling to keep my eyes open. The ES o/n high of 1419.50 around 4amCT and now it has fallen below the the 2:25am low of 1413.25 to 1412. (Most likely this will the days range LOL! ie. 1407.75 to 1415.25)
8:09 est High 1416.25
est low 1407.00
Estimated open 1413
8:14 coffee & washroom break
8:28 Doesn't look like much direction for FE. I'm guessing FE=LE = 1407.75 to 1406.75
8:33 Open 1412.75
8:40 Took a look at ZC. Testing the 637.25 - could break, could bounce. I'm staying on the sidelines.
9:32 Well as expected a real sleeper. 1414-1410.75 or 3.25pt in the first hour!. Narrow, listless and choppy - wow glad I got up for this! LOL.
10:46 ES has only made it as low as 1410 by 9:55am. At this snails pace it could take til 11:30 to reach the estimate FE=LE. With that little trending it could turn into a "lazy L" day.
11:33 Stayed up late working and couldn't get up til 6:30am PT (3 hrs after my alarm.). After a little bounce to 50% retrace (H1408.75@8:40) the market has worked lower and has been to L1392.75. Had my breakfast and a coffee. Feeling the end-of-month blues along with family prbs. Hard to have any gusto for this morning - grey day.
One thing I have realized is that I must be very careful with my time if I am going to resurect my old system. I just need to keep going.
This morning in the shower I recalled a bit from Norman Vincent Peele. It was about problems and difficulties. Quoting one fellow "If I don't have any difficulties in life then I get worried. 'don't you trust me anymore Lord?' - the idea that God only gives us challenges we can handle and with his help and hard work and persistence and faith in His help we can overcome all "difficulties". And so we grow spiritually and in character.
Re-reading that section of the book, a bit further on I found the story of a successful executive who had 3 trays on his desk, incoming, outgoing and a third, "with God all things are possible". (Matthew 19:26). The third tray was for all matters to which he had not yet determined a solution. These matters were to be held in prayerful thinking.'I surround the problems in that box with the magic of believing and the results are amazing."
Yes! LOL - that was an experiment. You have to click on the link below - for that one.
(you must be new to this journal as the prior ones are full size - but I appreciate you pointing it out!)
On this one (below) if you use the link then you would use the little words on top (large, original), but I've included a copy of the image below the anchor for you.
Perhaps the lower Keltner offers a target at 1369.25 for ES
12:53 Stayed up late working and didn't get up til 9:30am PT (6 hrs after my alarm.). I checked the screen a few minutes before open and left the buy to close at 1387.75 - for the March Madness journal
This journal is for the March Madness trading journals.
My goal is to take $20,000 and move it to $50.000 by the end of the month, LOL!
The techniques used are outlined in the Simple Estimation Trading ( thread.
This means I'll use trendlines, …
Though its not money in my pocket it felt good that I stayed with my estimate of last night rather than move it up.
This morning in the shower the title of a movie (with Sandra Bullock) came to mind, "While you were sleeping." -its about how she falls in love with the working class brother while the pretty boy brother is in a coma (she had saved his life from a commuter train and she pretended she was his financee).
That's how I feel about this market, ("While you were sleeping."). It is almost back to its 2007 Oct highs of 1576 - with 1415.50 on Monday. Through constant money printing and mortaging the future of generations of Americans yet unborn with 15.5 trillion in debt (+5 trillion in the last 5 years alone), a huge bubble of inflated stock prices, with APPL the cheerleader, has suspended reality.
It's like a crazy dream where we are rushing to a incredible crisis to meet the Mayan 2012 timetable. Everywhere it seems things are falling apart on the inside while maintaining a facade on the exterior - a hollow shell where the skin of the apple is shiny and red and the core is blackened and riddled with worms.
Corruption, greed, lack of morals and principles, no concern for doing a job well or being professional or ethical and everyone walking unconcernedly asleep.
In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.
A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?
B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?
C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?
D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?
E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?
Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.
While the sobering news from Europe has finally started to weigh on US stocks, I thought I’d add gasoline to the fire and remind everyone of the twisted morass that’s our own domestic financial situation.
The top 5 banks in the US now account for a massively disproportionate amount of the derivative risk in the financial system. Specifically, of the $250 trillion in gross notional amount of derivative contracts outstanding (consisting of Interest Rate, FX, Equity Contracts, Commodity and CDS) among the Top 25 commercial banks (a number that swells to $333 trillion when looking at the Top 25 Bank Holding Companies), a mere 5 account for 95.9% of all derivative exposure.
The top 4 banks: JPM with $78.1 trillion in exposure, Citi with $56 trillion, Bank of America with $53 trillion and Goldman with $48 trillion, account for 94.4% of total exposure. As historically has been the case, the bulk of consolidated exposure is in Interest Rate swaps ($204.6 trillion), followed by FX ($26.5TR), CDS ($15.2 trillion), and Equity and Commodity with $1.6 and $1.4 trillion, respectively.
And that's your definition of Too Big To Fail right there: the biggest banks are not only getting bigger, but their risk exposure is now at a new all-time-high.
Good thing Backstop Ben and Congress are always ready with their catcher’s mitt.
