Tuesday 13 Dec, 2011

Today was the HXD buy day.
We had two zones (ie potential target buy levels)

one from the Taylor system
one from the chart which was lower the circle and also the resistance levels on the 15 min.
(it turned out it was the resistance levels)

---------
I made the mistake of posting in the astrology thread was a bit upset by the closed minded people, which reminded me of the evil Church and its inquisitions and torture and killings. Ironically astrology was painted as superstition and one of the posters made a comment about the world being flat. Of course, that was the view of the mainstream scientific thought of the day and anyone who thought differently was branded heretic, "superstitious" etc. The reality was that astrologers had known both that the earth revolved around the sun, and the it was not flat for centuries. Indeed it's diameter had been actually estimated (only 50m off the actual) in ancient times several hundred years BC. (BTW astrologers and astomomers - were the same until very recently.)

In the wiki link this part in not true "Kepler was the first to devise a system that described correctly the details of the motion of the planets with the Sun at the center. "
Astronomy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


"Ironically, for much of mankind's history, astrology and astronomy have been classed as the same science, in fact it is only fairly recently that they were split into different disciplines. "
Astrology and Astronomy, Are They So Very Different?

-----------In any case I had a poor sleep and got up late and once the computer warmed up etc missed the buy price by a few pennies.

Action: Buy
Quantity: xxxx
Symbol: HXD - HORIZONS BPRO S&P/TSX60 BEAR
Market: CA - Canadian
Price: $10.11
Order expires end of: Day
Order Date: 13-Dec-2011
Time: 10:07:38 AM EST

no fill and it move away up to 10.29 a several minutes later, so I killed the orde rather than chase it.
(tonight I think I'll enter an sell order before I go to bed. Entered 10.89)






Oh well.

As you can see the rally was so strong we achieved a 2 day rally in one day!



(I haven't read enough Taylor to be sure what you do in this case, but I think if you didn't sell today (ie the smae day) and get a high opening in the area of yesterday's high, 10.65, early in the day you sell.)

Adding the differentials on highs of 26 cents to 10.65 would be $10.91. Looking at the chart I would guess $10.87 would be a better objective. However, bottom line is to sell as soon as you see it weaking.

----

Remem ber Taylor developed his book method in the days before computers and online trading. (Also his system was for grains and there was no o/n Globex session.) I will try to be up on time and if it gets to 10.87 area and then weakens I'll sell some of the longs I have.

night!

aquarian1 

Tuesday 13 Dec, 2011 (I haven't read enough Taylor to be sure what you do in this case, but I think if you didn't sell today (ie the smae day) and get a high opening in the area of yesterday's high, 10.65, early in the day you sell.) Adding the differentials on highs of 26 cents to 10.65 would be $10.91. Looking at the chart I would guess $10.87 would be a better objective. However, bottom line is to sell as soon as you see it weaking. ..

Wednesday Dec 14, 2011

Well, I shoud have stuck with my own analysis!
("Have confidence in yourself!!")

I put in a sell at 10.69 and then took a nap.

It came back up and through that and made a high of $10.95 - so $10.91 would have been great.
(I left 10.91-10.69 = 0.26 $260 on the table!)

Live and learn!



Here's a visual pic of the rally:



Tomorrow is a sell short day.

the high should be FE=HE and at or slightly above $10.95

difference in highs method gives
$11.21objective

From the chart we could/should close the gap at least => $11.05
If we attain the last high then that is $11.31

Up too late last night - too much posting.

up late this morning. feel like I'm zigging-when I should be zagging.
I hope to get my old computer going again and back to my efficient old XP and XP prgs.

Really hating this windows7

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Ok enough drivel. So today is Short sell day.
I've but in an order for selling HXD at $10.94

going to take a shower - wake up and regroup. - hopefully.

Back :Filled at 10:18:19 AM EST

aquarian1 

Wednesday Dec 14, 2011 ....Tomorrow is a sell short day. the high should be FE=HE and at or slightly above $10.95 difference in highs method gives $11.21objective From the chart we could/should close the gap at least => $11.05 If we attain the last high then that is $11.31

Thursday Dec 15, 2011

Todays range for the HXD is 10.68-11.01 as of 10:51CT
It is slightly above $10.95, though it hasn't closed the gap of $11.05

One thing to mention is that technical analysis on etfs constructed to match percentage changes in an index (HXD is 2 times the daily % change in the TSX index), is subject to some distortion due to this construction.

The HXU is the positive 2 times

Imagine the index as a stock that changes from $10.00 to $9.80 up and down several times.

If you buy the stock at 10 and it fluctuated up and down 20 times and ended at $10.20 and you sold you would be up $0.20. Not so for an ETF on a daily percentage change tracking. You could be in a loss posn.

no democracy for eurostate

'Who the Hell You Think You Are?' Nigel Farage throws egg in Eurocrat faces - YouTube

'Who the Hell You Think You Are?' Nigel Farage throws egg in Eurocrat faces

I got to bed reasonably close to bedtime 9pm vs 7pm (local time).

I woke up around 2am and tried to sleep til my scheduled 3:30am wakeup but it was hopeless. Lots of thoughts swirling through my mind this morning. Yesterday I read a thread which seemed to be largely devoted to Beth bashing. (Words like "theft" are no doubt liablous and "despictable" subject from suit for defamation of character/)

More to the point was wise-acres mocking "sure and indicator well tell me to buy and sell" -- well which of the hundreds of other vendors don't claim that?

Perhaps Beth's indicator combination does work well and or better than most commerical systems - heavens know she paid her dues. What would people have her do - drive a forklift?

anyways ......no idea why I'm sharing this.... I guess it's thoughts that keep me from clarity and focus on what I should be doing - right now at this time... which is

"Where will the market top and give the HXD buy opportunity?"

Today is buy day for the HXD.

I have bought HXD at $10.79 at 9:54:28 AM EST


and HSU at $9.33 and $9.31 about 9.02 CT

Today is Sell Day for HXD.

We bought on Friday at $10.79
I have an order to sell 1/2 posn at $10.97

So is the ES (now 1205) attains a low of the Day of 1197.50 and if
HXD rises 0.014375 cents per PT move in ES
then
HXD would rise to 10.98 (now 10.88)- so I set the order a penny less.

Yah man!

Got my fill!

I was trying to work out the leverage to ES.

I can't really understand IB's margin requiremen so what I did was enter an order for 100 shares of each and see what its margin requirement calculator came up with.
These are the numbers you see in blue.
As the ES is $2,500 for initial day time and its calculator value is about 1.25 times that I think it overstates it by this and I adjusted the amounts I could buy by 1.25.

I also assumed I was buying and selling in round lots of 100 - so 100 shares 200 shares, 300 shares etc.
and rounded down to the nearest 100.


Then I used the change in price from Friday's high to today's (Monday's low) times the amount bought.
So for HSU I would divide my ES profit by 12.29 to see what the reduced leverage would provide.
In this example, a 29.50 point move in the ES ($1,475) would give $120 of profit in HSU (300 HSU).

(But I would need more in the account really because the ES o/n initial is $5,000 and I would need $7.500 to meet my only use 2/3 of cash balance/initial margin rule for maximum contracts.)





(I think SSO I could buy 150 because if I just use the round feature it shows 200 not 100 that I could buy the lower table)