Follow-up to Feb 2nd post on accumulation

You can see that what initially looked like accumulation turned out to be just that. It has nothing to do with snowy weather or the numbers of traders present to trade on any given day. It is all about supply and demand.

Here is an update on ISRG. Since it broke out it has basically been going sideways. My opinion is that it is absorbing the supply to the left based on the following.

1. It is holding the gains its made
2. volume declines on the pullback.
3. bars are closing off the lows
4. the bars to the right have higher lows with strong closes

My opinion again is that we should see it push through supply on increased volume. I pointed to 360 as a next target, but I'm thinking it reaches the highs and possibly exceeds the prior highs. Again, my opinion. My reasoning is this. The decline from the highs to the recent lows was a fairly long duration in time. There is shortening of the thrust near the end of this decline which means price could not reach the demand line. Trying to think logically, what would prevent price from reaching the demand line, other than increased demand? Just my hypothesis here. Also, because there is SOT, the pattern takes on a wedge shape. What I'm getting at is that I feel the accumulation was a drawn out process and that the target for that accumulation is either near the highs or beyond.

David

David_R 

Here is an update on ISRG. Since it broke out it has basically been going sideways. My opinion is that it is absorbing the supply to the left based on the following. 1. It is holding the gains its made 2. volume declines on the pullback. 3. bars are closing off the lows 4. the bars to the right have higher lows with strong closes My opinion again is that we should see it push through supply on increased volume. I pointed to 360 as a next target, but I'm thinking it reaches the highs and possibly exceeds the prior highs. Again, my opinion. My reasoning is this. The decline from the highs to the recent lows was a fairly long duration in time. There is shortening of the thrust near the end of this decline which means price could not reach the demand line. Trying to think logically, what would prevent price from reaching the demand line, other than increased demand? Just my hypothesis here. Also, because there is SOT, the pattern takes on a wedge shape. What I'm getting at is that I feel the accumulation was a drawn out process and that the target for that accumulation is either near the highs or beyond. David

Hi David


nice analysis , yeah market acts strong .. the effort to rise shows that the big players are deffenetly interrested
in higher prices ..

also the climactic actions .. show that demand is swamping supply

waht also prevents price form a demand line .. would be a withdrawn form trading from the big boys .. as they are not interrested in a down move .. but that can be read thru the spread and volume of the bars near or at the demand line... if volume and spreads are low.. the big boys .. are not interrested in a down move .. ie no selling pressure

also if volume is high or average at or near the demand line.. but the closings of the bars are near or at the top..
demand is coming in .. forming springs etc..

cheers

looks like we we saw 3. a push thru supply on SHLD
refer to post @

Wyckoff Trading Method Hi Accumulation on SHLD wich is now in phase C ?!? within this accumulation phase we have several indicators that demand is getting stronger 1. Wide Spread Down Bar on Ultra High Volume , with no follow thru .. SOS (sign of strength) 2. a wide …

and looks like we see an upthrust after distribution (trap up move) on SPG ...
refer to post @

Wyckoff Trading Method Ok after that manny accumulation pics.. ;) here is some food for the bears.. SPG we see a nice change in behaviour .. where the nice climactic action is the border .. looks beautiful... signs of weakness are written all over that chart .. …

cheerz

Brand12 

I always found aud/usd hard to read but I tried to apply Wyckoff to the hourly chart and suddenly it became clear that it had been in accumulation and is going up as of now. Too bad I did not trade it as it has gone up about 500 pips (JAC?). Wasn´t sure about the analysis until I see more of these setups.

Hey Brand here is my take on yourt AUD USD chart


i think u have somewhat compressd your analysis too much .


i wrote the terms in red over your chart ...


the selling climax was correct .. but the accumulation .. has to be much bigger by such a dramatic move..

accumulation takes time .. and it wont be over within a few hours .. it takes days if not weeks or even months
too accumulate at a certain price area .. depends on the timeframe u look at too ...

hope this helps..

keep your question coming .. and post your analysis.. this helps .. me too..

cheerz

I saw that CSCO had disappointing earnings after the close today. I thought I'd take a look at the chart. Obviously its in a down trend and had reached a resistance level or axis line. I put in a hidden upthrust a few days ago and today had the highest volume that the stock has seen in some time. The problem is the close of the bar is in the middle which would indicate selling coming in at the upper end of the range. I would make the assumption that if falls further from here and of course its because of the earnings. If you believe that sort of thing. Also, it never really got a boost in volume as it made its last move higher, so not a lot of gas in the tank. We will see how it plays out.

David

PrymeTyme 

Hey Brand here is my take on yourt AUD USD chart i think u have somewhat compressd your analysis too much . i wrote the terms in red over your chart ... the selling climax was correct .. but the accumulation .. has to be much bigger by such a dramatic move..

Thanks your analysis is very helpful and yes I was watching the15 min TF and then the hourly which showed the accumulation much better. It´s heading back down for now.

Ok, heres a chart of UNG which seems to be in a trading range. I'm not really sure what is going on but here is what I see:
1. UNG broke down from a 5 month support line, then retested that line with supply. Note the wide range, high volume, close in the middle bar.
2. Price than drifted down with an occasional spike down with volume.
3. I see no selling climax.
4. Price then moves back and forth creating a trading range.
5. Three times that price reached the 6.40 area supply came in.
6. Not sure about the lower area.

Questions:
1. Was the supply coming in at 6.40 area because SM did not want price to move up yet as they are still accumulating?
2. Or is the SM distributing?
3. Is this still Phase B so therefore we cannot really tell what is happening until we get a Phase C signal? i.e. UTAD, Spring?
4. I don't really know how to interpret the bottom of the range. Any opinions?

I thought the GAS.TO chart was very interesting. Looks like a UTAD at the top of the range. Now look at the bottom of the range, a wide range bar on ultrahigh volume closing on the lows right on the bottom of the range. Next we see two small bars, low volume. I would think breaking to new lows from a TR would lead to a lot of selling, but that didn't happen. Is this a spring? If so, where would an entry be?

Thanks.....

David_R 

I saw that CSCO had disappointing earnings after the close today. I thought I'd take a look at the chart. Obviously its in a down trend and had reached a resistance level or axis line. I put in a hidden upthrust a few days ago and today had the highest volume that the stock has seen in some time. The problem is the close of the bar is in the middle which would indicate selling coming in at the upper end of the range. I would make the assumption that if falls further from here and of course its because of the earnings. If you believe that sort of thing. Also, it never really got a boost in volume as it made its last move higher, so not a lot of gas in the tank. We will see how it plays out. David

hi .. waht i have seen on your chart ... is that even thou supply hits the market we are holding gains.
also the close is above the previous spring .. looks still strong

martied16 

Ok, heres a chart of UNG which seems to be in a trading range. I'm not really sure what is going on but here is what I see: 1. UNG broke down from a 5 month support line, then retested that line with supply. Note the wide range, high volume, close in the middle bar. 2. Price than drifted down with an occasional spike down with volume. 3. I see no selling climax. It is possible that phase A will not include a dramatic expansion in spread and volume. However, it is better if it does, because the more dramatic selling will clear out more of the sellers and pave the way for a more pronounced and sustained markup. 4. Price then moves back and forth creating a trading range. 5. Three times that price reached the 6.40 area supply came in. 6. Not sure about the lower area. Questions: 1. Was the supply coming in at 6.40 area because SM did not want price to move up yet as they are still accumulating? i think its traders who where long .. taking profit .. or where locked in 2. Or is the SM distributing? NO 3. Is this still Phase B so therefore we cannot really tell what is happening until we get a Phase C signal? i.e. UTAD, Spring? i guess we rae now in phase C as per the shakeout 4. I don't really know how to interpret the bottom of the range. Any opinions? I thought the GAS.TO chart was very interesting. Looks like a UTAD at the top of the range. Now look at the bottom of the range, a wide range bar on ultrahigh volume closing on the lows right on the bottom of the range. Next we see two small bars, low volume. I would think breaking to new lows from a TR would lead to a lot of selling, but that didn't happen. Is this a spring? If so, where would an entry be? will look into this chart later Thanks.....

Check chart

i have alot of text on the chart ..hope u dont get lost

cheerz