All very good points.

I realized that the juicier the looking run the more I focus on 'not missing it' and hence gift, gift, gift, gift.

Today for instance, it pivot at the 61% ext but it missed every other extension and area prior to that, and how would one know there considering the way the indicators was looking. I look at Horst and see him profitable, day-in, day-out and I then end up feeling a bit better that this is possible, but today I just kept watching and boom boom boom.

Per Mike, good point. NO MATTER WHAT I GET 3 TRADES. NO MATTER WHAT. NO MATTER HOW JUICY IT LOOKS, NO MATTER HOW LONG THE RUN UP WAS, NO MATTER THE AREA I THINK I AM IN OR WILL BE IN ETC..... NO MATTER. NO REASON.

I have to review my video today and I think I just say to myself, ok, I could take profit here at 2 points (the old me before Feb) but then my new rules were to let the winners run and 'technically' to me the runs would most likely be longer runs.

If I traded my old way I would probably be slightly positive or even. Now, instead of going be+1 and letting it knock me out I just let it knock me out as so often I still think the area is good and the MACD's are in my favor on the longer term. However, that changes after it knocks me out, ranges for a bit, puts it back on the rail and blamo!!!!

Horst, Henry, Danielle etc. are all great teachers, but I guess for now, I just don't get how you are hitting the long runs. Although today, there was a beautiful and clear long but the longer term (4181) was saying weakness and I don't know what to do then.... Confusion ensues.

Making this breakthrough from 1 point positive a day to 3 points a day seems to have been a big challenge.

-.8 points today per contract

Today was an interesting start. Up-down-up-down... Ranging market action and I got caught in it.

The max 3 trades kept me from making it back or possibly giving more away.

Trades:

1. -4 ticks, This was a 23% retrace and I saw considerable weakness across the board. This is not a trade to take with a large % of win possibility.

2. -3 ticks, This was not quite the area (50%), but I went ahead and did it anyways. I was early, but if I would have kept my 5 tick stop I would have stayed in this on I believe.

3. +1 ticks, I got back in at the retrace here, seeing more down. MFE was about 11 ticks.

Video

The 3 trades are a nice touch and something I can do. It was tough today and you can see that in the video, but I did it.

-.6 points per contract today

Ok, my first thoughts are that the dynamic of the market has DEFINITELY changed. Shorts are happening and the moves down with the bars are much longer. I believe this comes with experience in knowing what kind of market we are in etc... In the past I was taught, the indicators NEVER LIE. Of course, that is dependent upon your interpretation of the indicators and what kind of market condition you are currently within.

Early February was interesting as it would create all the signals for a certain entry and the keep going up up up. Now, if you took those same looking signals, you would have a significant profit. So, as you evolve as a trader do you stick to your guns, take the bad with the good. Or, do you evolve as a trader and realize the difference and understand what those possible differences are. I believe most people would say the latter, however this requires discretion and interpretation of not only the micro-fundamentals of the market but also some higher level Macro understanding as to the TYPE of condition we are experiencing.

Today was flawless in in-perfection. Haha....

I didn't take the short as at the open as I honestly was waiting for it to come a little higher. I realized the downward tendency, but got knocked out twice trying to get in. I waited for a 2-3 point long and I found myself sub-consciously getting into an are that was not an AREA, so I basically exited.

Trades:

1. -1 tick, I tried.

2. -5 ticks, had a 4 tick stop, saw another bar setup slide, saw considerable weakness in the MACD's but it had one more pop in it then a quick run down.

3. +1 tick, Ok, this was not an area and just a slowdown. Why I wasted my 3rd bullet for this one.

Ok, now my favorite Youtube video. I am a pacifist, so please bare with me as this lightens my mood.

Todays video

Ok, Well, I blew my trades a bit early and not the proper areas, but hey, maybe I will change that some day.

Feels like a repeat of yesterday.

Trades:

1. -5 ticks, a little early on the pivot, 50% retrace, but it decided to dip further. Knocked me out by 2 ticks.

2. +1 tick, got back in right after as I liked the area. Came back down and knocked me out. I considered exiting 2, but I couldn't get there fast enough.

3. -5 ticks, I figured it was a deep retrace, heading back up, sitting on a bit of support, but a high risk trade. Goal was 809.5 and as I watch, market just pivot on that price for a few points.

Video

OK, now, a complaint. I have to now go to page 3 to just find my darn journal!!!! Wow, the work I must go through just to journal. haha... I have a hunch though that after March 31, 2011, that I will not have this issue?

MWinfrey's 5 Minute Odyssey It's actually not too hard to see what's going on. Every losing trade you post about has a 'reason' for the loss, and no winning trade has a reason. This means that psychologically you are already positioning yourself to talk yourself …

Ok, this is a great thread and specifically post and instead of qualifying my poor trading habits and giving them 'strength' I will mark the better trades that I did not capitalize on during my trading. A post-analysis of trading. It is pretty obvious what I am thinking, but regardless they didn't work out. And, visually, you can see if I just get knocked out by a tick or whatever, so that doesn't need explaining.

Wow, what can I say, I broke the golden rule. Only 3 trades. I did 5 trades and I tell you it took all my mental strength not to keep trading.

I am realizing that over-trading is my biggest issue and it is what has sunk me or put me into this spin. I am very happy though as I saw the perfect trade and setup to go long for a nice 2.5 point run. I didn't take it because I had already used up my 3 (5 actually) bullets.

I keep taking high-risk trades and I know it. Also today I took 3 trades (review at end of video) that could have been 1 and that is why I took the 5 total trades as I figured it was doing a retrace, but no guarantee and if I only have 3 I will focus more on the explicit setup.

The trade of the day was a long @ 820.9 for a little over 2.5 points per contract. It was beautiful.

No defending my trades, but I did not trade with the trend at all and I didn't wait for the proper areas. I noticed that I am done trading by 9:40 (EST) and that is not good. Time to slow down some.

I will post my video for today in the next post as it is a long one.

Bluemele, I'm considering taking the NFT program. You said in a message here that exits are the challenge. It seems to me from the 7 day trial it's entering "at the edge." Even Horst gives a lot of "gifts" before getting an entry. And that is on the days he publishes his videos.

Please comment.
Thanks,
Orin
orin.rehorst at gmail.com

HighRise1202 

Bluemele, I'm considering taking the NFT program. You said in a message here that exits are the challenge. It seems to me from the 7 day trial it's entering "at the edge." Even Horst gives a lot of "gifts" before getting an entry. And that is on the days he publishes his videos. Please comment. Thanks, Orin orin.rehorst at gmail.com

Orin,

Thanks for the question. Good question. Well, I used to be able to get in at the edge a lot better, but lately I have had this really stupid idea of just getting in wherever and not waiting for the proper areas. If you look at yesterdays video, I had 2 different 100% extensions and an area on the long term telling me to short at that price. The price hit it on the nose and then went down! (after vid ended) It was nice. But, I had already blew my chances with expending my 3 trades. PATIENCE! haha...

Gifts are not to ever be eliminated in my opinion. It is unrealistic. I think as you get better they will be reduced, but mostly they are something of value that you decide to give back to your fellow speculators and bonafide hedgers.

I can't speak about others, but HORST is really good. He is trading a legit 10 contracts and trades 5+ different instruments. I have challenged him some and he has always shown me what I believe to be legit.

If you watch Danielle trade, she is good at hitting the edge. Same w/ Roger. Horst isn't really an edge trader in my opinion but he is VERY good at seeing the mid and long term runs. Henry is quite good as well, but I haven't seen a live trade from him in a very long time, so I don't know how he trades these days.

Also, I don't believe Horst hides his vids, but I do believe that if he had a terrible terrible terrible day that he may choose to not show it, but every bad day I have seen from him he just stays with it and gets it back and a little bit more.

I think when you reach Horsts level that being down a couple points isn't that big of deal. With TF, CL, etc. you know there is at least 3-5 point run coming sometime soon.

For me at this stage, I am not quite there yet, so I need little rules to break my bad habits etc.

Good luck on your decision. I do believe that this system is good otherwise I wouldn't still do it, but everyone is different so it has to be the right choice for each person.

Oh, and I want to clarify.... I AM NOT A VENDOR, DO NOT ENDORSE ONLY ONE VENDOR OR THEIR WAY OF LIFE, NOR RECEIVE COMMISSION FOR THIS JOURNAL OR ANYTHING ELSE I DO.

Ok, here is the vid. You can see that I am a bit disconnected (or hear at least). 3 trades was tough..

Sorry this is late, but I was lazy today.

bluemele 

Ok, here is the vid. You can see that I am a bit disconnected (or hear at least). 3 trades was tough.. Sorry this is late, but I was lazy today.

Check your URL, it isn't for a youtube video

Mike