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Still looking to trade the Bullish Side after Breaking many Structural Points and Closing higher for the Prior Week but I will try and be cautious not to jump at higher prices with very little Reward to Risk..the move is very vertical and somehow extended so the best move is to wait for a pullback
The main thesis is to see if the market pullback to 12222/12225 are and retest structural breakout point +LVN from Friday's Session and find continuation from there if I find good rejection at a good spot to define risk.
The second scenario would be a short-term bearish read if the market flushes above prior highs at 12375 on a retest of prior lows at CPI Day and find Strong Selling Response from there..
Contextually I see the market moving from one Balance to another the Next Balance Vpoc, for now is 12500 and the market now seems like it is going to open in a Gap During RTH so I would be more carful with a bearish Bet..
Have a Great Week Everyone
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
bad Start to the Week and Frankly if feels like a Deja Vu of the last Monday where price gaps up and then find supply and fall all over..
took 3 Trades All of them were a stop out I was so frustrated and walked away after that
First Trade. (2 Rejections of prior Supply +reclaim below OVN H)
Went Short after the open from defined Resistance and supply at 12375
price broke a recent low into the open and traded below the opening mark in RTH after showing Weakenss at the first 15m so I went short looking for a target to the OVN Low then Price Rallied and got Stopped out
Second Trade (Minor Demand /not defined pre-market) Error Trade
I jumped long on a retest of a minor demand area on the 5 M this area wasn't part of my plan pre-market. the risk on this trade was tough to define since there was no prior structure to lean on which makes it a bad trade to take.. the trade had 0 MFE and I puked the trade before that actual stop
Third trade (Ovn High Retest +VWAP+Prior Supply Broken Retest)
this was the main trade idea after the Breakout above the OVN H at the open and then coming back Retesting the Prior structural Highs on 12375 ... Trade was Executed with a confluence at Vwap but it didn't work out and supply was hitting the market until the close..at that point I just decided that is it and walked away
Final thought:
1-remember this Indian guy on Instagram Reels that say (when you have a Bad Day,Give Up,Go home and Sleep, F**k It, Try again tomorrow) I think that it is true especially in trading fighting a bad day turns it into even worse.
2-something that I need to work on is the avg win day and the avg losing day if my average win day is around 3+% and 4%+ then I can not let a bad day cost me more than 50% of my average winning day so we are talking -2% or 2.5% max..from a mathematical perspective it seems obvious but as with many traders including me, giving bad days more shots doesn't mean you will turn the day around there are only a few good opportunities in the day during a specific time window where things are moving..
3-the good thing in all of this is is i respected my Risk Limit Rule and didn't go beyond my Daily loss limit at -3%.. i will try and focus on minimizing bad days impact by trying to just trade certain times of the day and focus on high probability areas.
Not much clarity in PA and how the market is trading OVN and we have Jpowell testifying later this day
main Zones are Still unchanged from Yd at 12375 and 12225
The market structure is still overall Bullish but the market is currently pulling back.
Main Key Level for the Session is LW-H at 12306 will see how the market trades around it .
if the price trades below it a deeper pullback is more probable.
if the price holds above the expectation for a breakout and continuation
it all depends on my Risk Point on every trade if my Risk point is 100 T then I would trade 1 lot on MFFs Account given that 1 tick =1$ so my Risk is 100$
a bit Busy with Normal Day Job so I Took a Swing Trade for the Week on the First Day of Jerome Powell Speech Near the Close at the 50% fib retracement of the recent big impulsive leg +retracmetn to old resistance turning support
Still holding for the 3rd Day with a target at the point of Supply and Break down at Last Week High 12306
The Account is at +2.55% after being Down on Monday from Equity High at 5%+
Floating Equity not exceeding -3% with highest on YD Move higher at +4%
Will See How this Swing Play go.. Will Try and Scale Something out on YD High if I get another leg higher given that we have NFP Tomorrow
NAS100[M] 60 Min #5 2023-03-09 03_43_05.884
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A Lack of Commitment and Discipline to Follow through and it is totally on me but other factors like day job and Time Zone difference made it more difficult to do intraday trading so I switched momentarily to take swing trades on the Weekly Range from HTF's Zones holding from 2 to 5 days.
i didn't even journal on my personal notes only screen shots taken of areas of interest.. will try to follow through and make journaling a habit as much as I can
I passed Phase 1 of the Evaluation for Now on two swing setups executed last week
and ended +9% and target is 8%
Moving to Phase 2 Once I have room of time to get back to trade intraday
if there is a Swing Setup I will try and Post How I'm planning to Execute and Manage trades and it is no different from My Intraday Style.
Phase 2 Goal is 5%
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a Bullish Outlook on the Week as long as Market Structure on the Hourly Holds a bid above 3 Prior Highs 12075/12100 Broken Yd
Looking for an intraday Swing from 12110 the 38.2% retracement of the recent impulse yd before the close.. after breaking the one-time framing down and staying above the Outside bar weekly lows... target for this trade is 12300/12400 as a final target
