interesting support but also counter action, tough to see the blip and then entry

energy is pushing and vol is preventing bigger moves through earnings

looking for extension but gives reason for buyers to come in for a bit

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since there has been upward expectations pricing in earnings, less keen on the events

may be causing drag toward eom, into nfp though riding closer to support



some kind of further target, toward eod

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would not blame hedging/temp exit strats in large tech through this

large 4k spx p still exists, delta higher on c v p, p/c is lower

not sure if c sold as covered/credit for otm p on individuals

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rebound but floating into more data, energy has some influence, support too

also fomc start of may

bit of a jumbled mess this am, looking at googl bounding highs while msft bounding lows

crude is off as well, perhaps the expectations are being adjusted too far under, mid term bounce

things are limited however due to vol and other incoming data

dollar still bid, kre might get relief but still trending

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revisit last week area possibly, googl is mostly priced but guidance might be positive

msft is under and the low estimates would bring some surprise

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energy may also cause a drag, though okay for inflation measures does affect indexes

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currently seeing a good r:r support now that things have deflated a bit

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msft goog both decent beats, but they dropped almost as much as they corrected

the dt is causing supports to be tested when normally they are considered safe zones

not sure this is the right spot, but i'm looking for someone to modify this indicator. using on NT. happy to pay. let me know if interested. thanks, andy

whoops, probably wrong post?

should be in the programming request section: https://nexusfi.com/ninjatrader/

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may be associated w/ energy dependence, commodity imports

also a proximity effect may be at play to east pacific neighbors





as economies mature, services substitute for raw goods

imports cause a trade imbalance, which is currency sensitive

at the same time, commodity rates add to this effect

a stronger currency might effectively export inflation, increasing buying power


however, mfg may also be outsourced / exported overseas

cpi/ppi and mfg figures might show indications of slowdown

whereas services and large cap show resilience leading to bifurcated economic health

they are somewhat interlinked, with small caps/businesses/startups being more affected

decisions made likely lean toward monetary weighting


semis benefit with overseas production, so moving them domestically imports inflation

however, if services can make up the difference, the net effect is still stimulative

technical mfg where semi-raw goods are still imported to lower bottom line

maybe automation to increase capacity, could be one example of adding value to service


ai is another example, under proper controls, can provide ample utility / productivity

and is a newer branch vs. automation to add further value to services

however all this is still energy sensitive, so this factor must be somehow subsidized

and that goes back to a stronger currency to import or establish carbon neutral alt sources


perhaps suggests a re-config / re-adjustment of services that are temp disrupted / rotated

healthcare more accessible, housing, etc. in the guise of being somewhat under construction

one basket might contain, say googl msft aapl nvda that have these positive tailwinds



the uncertain basket say meta for ongoing dev, amzn for price sensitivity, even some ev plays

meta might be positive, though vs something like dis due to entertainment virtualization

nflx could be another example if production costs, partnerships improve with optimization

tsla might improve end product value via mfg automation, platform ai, infrastructure


so not even really half bad, but in the interim, overhauls to service productivity are ongoing

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these things do not occur immediately, adjustments and downtime

at least data is quickly accessible (availability unknown) for better informed decisions

virtualization might mean reconfiguration of commercial sites for different functionality

all with due time

energy dragging, very even behavior, less expectation on amzn/meta components

overall supportive going into start of may, still data dependent

bonds adjusting slightly higher, vol settled down so near term ok

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revert and testing supports again in the longer term dt

meta afterhours, returned to prev quarter level, guidance dependent and more med term

figures for growth are not as crucial as the changes to the overall plan into next q

so numbers are harder to pinpoint exactly as things seem to shift unexpectedly

if there is surprise, this would be in the rate of improvement / slowdown of spend



revs have been above more than below

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meta beat, outlook dimmer likely to trail off again

the amazon can be ~10 to 25 miles wide, amazing

bit of pricing ongoing and then into fomc nfp / aapl next week

ripping gives a move to measure for the downside as well

googl type reaction for amzn and then some

may push near close like other earnings days

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possibly revert, looks like something is resisting and causing a counter

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am open dips supported, into tight resistance, unsure of breakout so targets taken

session actually over, may be an extension but fri eom, into next weeks data

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recommend apex300k (large trail, fees tho), leeloo swing (can expand scaling, no trail) for cost

if anti-fee, oneup.. most have some kinda of consistency during qual or mid performance

or just plunk down a deposit and use those 50 margin micros via tradeovate

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aapl frontrun ahead of itself, maybe general profit taking prior to the events next week

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energy is being supportive, has to position into next week.. seeing this an pre-emptive topping

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for risk mgmt, one method is to use standing initial margin for number of contracts at a given account, say 300k, if micro margin is say 2k, then effectively 150 contracts should be the absolute max

taking half of that would be fair, medium risk, so 75 contracts. for a trailing draw of 7.5k, that equates to $100 per contract of room.. for nq that is risking 50 points max..

again, take half of that to avoid failure, and that is 25 points..

of course, you have to be consistent and not really go full margin all the time, otherwise, that is only a few tries until failure..

the other option is to use a static draw account, but those have to be built and scaled out properly so the risk is adjusted based on profit

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from that term "plunging" in reminiscences of a stock operator AKA jesse livermore

that would be the max favorable position at 100% probability, and so forth..

nikkei is flying as well, energy close might remove some supportive influence, but prob back again next week

one thing would be usd/jpy where yen devaluation might prop their index

bit of a downdraft starting into the eom, week, anticipating data

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interesting that some data points prior to fomc, jolts and view of continual rate increases might be pushing earlier prior, the urgency is there at least to paint with

squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix

darkpool/index not confirming move

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metric updated, some reaction.. seeing flags within flags though, but new vamp squid concurs

energy soft but supported, might do just the min. vix also dipping as well

bonds too are aligned, but dxy is just mid so there is flex

nikkei and aapl are just climbing, anticipatory, some running / slipping

some type of cyclic gauge called hope



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just a eom thing, or maybe most earnings and now into other data

past fed announcements have given previous days opp to position or temp exit

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way this has setup is prob good for exit, and wait but mostly priced

some of the post reaction influences clues in earnings and data afterward

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also trailing draws are a bit strange, if wide, maybe ok, static and scaling might be better

though the trail protects previous profit, but seems to dangle and dampen scaling / growth

double edged sword there

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working costs inflate due to the dilution from remote work, and less on site time

remote work should focus on impact, instead ends up turning toward minimizing on site time

which would be okay if work was smarter, but this is not really the case

hours burning the midnight oil for innovation are missing, and still necessary for breakthroughs

instead on site time is minimized and things are diluted, increasing unit costs

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what instead happens is stagnating growth which fuels even further dilution, increased costs

the lack of focus on impact, leads even more to everything becoming further removed

so we have a distortion of value, though large caps can weather this better

and without competitive funding from disruptive startups, through decreased finance/credit

this will probably only get worse, though there are wildcards like ai in the mix

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most disruptive might be self sufficient small groups assisted by ai solutions

that lower costs and further extend runways

and with improving remote capabilities, better collaborations

so an alternative source of impactful innovation might be lurking underneath

energy dipped, and indexes as well from the high side

gold and bonds bid instead, vix creeping, dollar unchg

seems temp supportive / pausing, rewound prev push

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taking another view, the areas of support were tested in prep for fomc

generally would be supportive prior as well, energy dropped, but may have too

now in PM, bonds/gold were bid but now have achieved a good state pre-fomc

dollar undecided, mid while vix had enough and reverted under 20

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did a quick test on a live acct, activated and scalped, felt like any other scalp

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crude crudeing nicely, looking at zigzags until eia

there's a minor drag being created by crude, fishing around for support slowly after eia

flat overall, but energy also sensitive to nfp, vol, bonds primed looking to dxy also supportive

hikes and all necessary, inflation, etc. if economy can withstand

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depth on qm is kinda neat since there is a wider spread

also keep in mind that energy is a significant chunk of inflation gauge

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on the live account one thing different is that orders tend to get drawn/filled at limit

since there is actual participation in the market, possibly stops too

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in a sense, since crude is acting up, is the influencer so indirectly trading crude

which seems incomplete prior to fomc, post dip then revert seeking nfp

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Fed Chair Powell (Q&A): Says decision on a pause was not made today

Fed Chair Powell (Q&A): Says decision on a pause was not made today, statement change today was meaningful today, will be driven by incoming data and meeting my meeting

Fed Chair Powell (Q&A) says staff forecast is independent of Fed policymakers and says the forecast from Fed staff was for a mild recession, staff forecasts at this meeting were broadly similar to March forecasts

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if you can swing this drop, should be okay for a revert