holding back for nfp but positioned ok, always to the last minute prior

aapl seemed ok, but not enough impetus, tho buybacks

seeing comments on how the earnings beat but still down vs. previous

may the 4th be w/ you

//

wave was ridden from various entries of support

crude seemed to react and bounce strongly first yet is still midway

which may be further supportive

//

exiting since the weekend had one mistake live entry after fomc but held through

other entry was from yday at am lows and held through until pre-fomc levels revisited

since this area is now sort of many days/weeks resistance have to exit

what i do enjoy is the swing allowing wide risk range but still allowing things to cook

//

missed a clip but had to exit due to poor entry post fomc

otherwise, last leg was not too sig but establishes some potential

prob wait for entry again with clusters of support if possible

the main upper resistance keeps getting tested, pending breakout

mid term the setup seems to continue, toward a valid push

//

one issue though is that these breaks would prime vol

vix is setup so that a decent spike in vol would draw momentum now

if something like 0dte can temporarily generate upside

that push would have to be determined, steady and unrelenting

or a revert / drop might slingshot vol and start the topping dominoes

//

only so far to get into support, only so far to hold close to lows

w/ upside racheting higher probabilities and providing sensitive triggers

tail risks, any teetering issue could generate tests to the upside instead

never seen the aftermath of a risk control, but was about to over scale and the risk manager prevented further opening trades

the entry was fortunately solid enough to ride through post-fomc into nfp and saw that if scaled further, would have hit draw limits

instead, in the absence of scaling, had enough room to run through the supports and back until target resistance above allowed exits

//

does change my thinking about accounts that allow insane leverage and if done correctly, good positioning can even trump leverage

there are times where leverage can help with better positioning, but leveraging must be quickly corrected and brought back to norm

the R-R from good positioning will bring the upside naturally without over leveraging and incurred risk, overtrading + commissions

//

scaling hard also tends to zoom charts, and blow up details that should normally be smoothed out by larger time frames or ranges

the big picture trend goes out the window and everything gets lost in the sauce. one mega scale too far vs. bigger trend *poof*

one method is to hedge larger positions by offsetting with similar instruments peeling away hedges until the wave resumes

//

in terms of other markets, rb (gas) in a downdraft, relief for consumers, good for inflation gauges, cinco de mayo, mother's day, etc.

gold trying hard not to be a thing, yields steepening, calendar has cpi wed ppi thurs, index might retrace back to support prior

since only a few places have swing non-trail accounts, even topstep stopped theirs

those accounts are valuable to grow, but i think you have to watch out for restrictions like scaling

eventually you should move to go live on your own since these are shared profit / restrictive

some even allow high leverage and cause practices that one would probably not use on a personal live account

elitetrader, leeloo and earn2trade? are some alternatives for scalable swings that might allow swing type

//

trailing draws are pretty restrictive, time / vol restrictions next, etc. so the new wave is instead giving leverage to sell

which allows more opportunity for blow ups, don't fall into either trap, but for practice choose something cheap

but really, w/o expectations, anything would be filed under a contractor type profit share vs. personal account

//

these one more tick type pushes are hilarious, at some point you just give up and take a position

not the exact extreme but close, just make sure sizing is not overly huge, but enough to scale

in retrospect, the culmination of the move confirms and you probably wish for more adds

the scale of the move makes it okay, not the scale of the position, there is always more risk

build in margin for error in case something goes wild, but available when opportunity knocks

interesting comparison, the hikes also seem to pair up

previously matched with similar increases

this time is first light and now heavy, so follow though may be stronger

the overall is also +2% greater than previous



https://www.visualcapitalist.com/interest-rate-hikes-1988-2023/

areas are jammed, energy leading slightly

see large swaths in qqq spx for may/june

so time wise, position wise not in a good spot

//

and then the longlong term spx chart



//

even healthy financial institutions, if not sufficiently large can get hurt

those over exposed to the sell near buy long mantra can take a hit

but coupled with worsening sentiment and fleeing deposits is serious

an attempt to control contagion and overreaction = slow motion breakdown

til/when the levee breaks.. if 'keeps on rainin', levee's gonna break.. ♪

//

and then ai, a flattener / equalizer with a well defined input cost / output

that can suck in all the remotely enabled productivity, might foreshadow a parallel

a flattening of societal hierarchies, not socialist per se, but equalized labor output

workplace metrics, controls for productivity, maybe dystopian, hopefully not

vested large cap tech enabling such conveniences as a service/commodity

//

fight for privacy, be vigilant about security, backups and plan b's might be tested

just with energy, though rb is flatter. seems temporary and more kneejerk through overall

have a main, but also alt scalp against since sentiment is tentative / dissonant / not in agreement

cpi should prob not be a main event, so through the whipsaw with eventual flatness / continuation

events should likely be used to adjust positioning since some exit prior and re-enter, less crucial

//

this case is below expectation, but still higher than past eras.. from gpt:

"in the United States, the average CPI over the past 10 years (as of 2021) has been around 1.8%"

so something hovering around 5% can be a headwind, rates still cannot bring that back to norm

//

the dow leading w/ ppi possibly frontrunning the weaker inf from cpi

seeing how industrials react at these levels, actually may be a decent hedge

exchange is cbot vs cme but in name only so mym.cbot vs mnq.cme

//

rty and nq is ranged vs others, going with the alternatives

//

Congress has raised the debt ceiling 14 times from 2001 to 2016, via wiki



note the cv-19 spike, but the limit is there only a few years later

whereas the previous 10 tril took about a decade, and prior at least a few

growth can be exponential?

//

the whippy vol is there, though vol itself has not popped

quick level blips followed by deliberate stair stepping

energy and industrials recovering but also lower overall

//

unlike cpi ppi should indicate demand for final goods

has been lackluster and could be a problematic catch-22

where the consumer remains inflated, but not the corresponding demand for goods

would be a bit stagnating, risk deflation or keep the present course?

dow led, crude too but still clogged, and dips get brought back

esp. nq which sits higher even vs es and ym is dragging providing strange support

the bounce back was subdued but somehow tech still floats, follow through missing

laggards hold the bottom while a sliver of large cap tech pulls and resuspend dips

//

so attempting to say, buy the laggards and sell big tech is tough since dips revisit both sides

the reverse seems unadvised but somehow works, go with the flow through the developing range

instead of trying to take tops and bottoms in the case of a breakout or extension either way

//

live account, participant in the dom which behaves similarly to a personal live dom

so likely funded is the real deal, also annoying with nq being a bit stubborn developing

but the flow is there just stuck between rock and hard place with nq at highs and ym at lows

the influence of energy is there more possibly for ym and other events, again legacy cbot

//

trying to figure out what the equivalent value is but margin req might be different

either way becoming immune to outcomes and blurring the lines between accounts

req for personal live is sizable, would be surprised if the reserve were that high on funded

//

personal note, dow is wild. do not have access in some accounts ok for sim

may actually be closer to crude behavior without the retracing stickiness

the process seems more gradual and drifts into vwap instead of jumpiness

//

again, seems like the time aspect is being killed off, maybe those 0dtes

possibly not the source of the blips, but maybe the end goal

//

googl is just out there in space, ai is rearranging things in the stratosphere

maybe the cloud and then maybe a benevolent skynet from the overlords

//

if banks dragging, and tech already pushed then where else is there to go

unless banks drag less, which would soften things, but really will that happen

//

an if googl has ai, would the ai really recommend buybacks at this juncture?

or is this more of a favor to other groups with various motivations

testing vwap friday, entering some randoms to see what happens

the action is supportive even on down moves not in the overall sense though

also the PM is forward looking so levels are actually anticipating next day

which has neutralized the sell off

//

however, the ramp afterhours is faded, underlying emphasis on a closing target

another tell is the sharp retrace on the final move, different from grinding

for this type of market, a wide, scaling account due to varying actions is better

forced repositioning can be avoided and better flexibility to gain optimal position

slow vix lower, energy propping, googl off a bit, but longer tf still trying off supports

waiting out or small swinging on the dip, the reaction late friday hinting

spx 4k p may/june unsure what that volume means possibly sold

//

nq less of a fan, since the minor dips only slightly test levels

maybe an attribute of the underlying strength as googl still pushes

msft is there too, though open ai was first, see how user experience / ad rev goes

//

kinda meh here due to vol / vix is also at lows, so if something happens R/R is not as good

wonder if anyone is taking cheap straddles unless vol just keeps dropping

not swinging or holding but taking what is there for the day..

OK, so the SPX 4k levels have both puts and calls, that is what is going on prob bought

//

the buying of smaller banks is on condition of current high rates for debt after low rate era

that reinforcing and injecting supports overall health since debt itself is not toxic, just untimely

maybe somewhere in there is also influences from debt ceiling, since private is less affected

ongoing doldrums, like pushes but also answered by drops, vol is low but trying to push

being flat literally and just randomly entering give a feel like this, hinting that straddles prob sold

intent to thin out vol and premiums, so these 0dte strats do not do much most of the time possibly (most likely)

then there is the what if, calls sold for credit to take on puts, would be insane with size, prob not

puts dropped hard vs calls, hedges / not full on delta.. or another scenario, sell puts to credit for calls.. even less likely

//

somehow the most strange might make the most sense, a sort of vested grind

also the r/r for a coiled vix is more binary, and at highs does no favors

maybe divvy collectors win, premium sellers, since non-events do nothing anyway

//

near close vix pops, levels hold and drops on volume, googl also off highs

lingering doubt, energy reports tomorrow, bonds at lows, dollar leading, maybe ym

gold under, nkd at highs all seem to be positioned at relative extremes, kre fxi too

//

overnight might hold, or not, tbd.. sentiment bit sour, the lemons need sugar

//

so, there are more spx 4k puts than calls, normally that means puts are sold

if so, then the counter party is delta neutral and buys those puts with underlying

seeing this, those credit could be used to buy calls of which there are fewer

the counter party again being neutral would sell said calls, buy more underlying

this goes from may-june.. and then disappears here and there some

powell friday, minutes next week, fomc june.. unknown opening party delta

meaning perhaps underlying may have been sold maybe building term position

or maybe what matters is the delta neutral party is buying the underlying

allowing someone else to offload at size.. until the whole thing is done and ready

then maybe the open interest fades and levels become less significant

this is significant size, and the underlying is x100 so something is going on

//

applying same to vix call spread



then 60s sold 3x to credit 40s for credit 2M

the delta neutral party would buy 60s meaning underlying sold 3x to 1x buy

the net selling of vix would be a positive tailwind for indexes

normally vix > 40 - 60 gets swatted back down so risk would be loss of credit

if the 1:3 really holds and do nothing until expiry to collect otherwise

again underlying was sold, putting a damper on vix breakouts

intervention far greater than a 0dte strat for sure

//

there's the sugar for the lemons to make lemonade

and if things stay >60 for longer? well shtf already and that is moral hazard

the institutional counter party is the proxy that takes payout for the blame

though still funded by the same associated behind the scenes strings

that dons the clean shirt and gives reset / pardon to return the favor

//

love seeing the dow catch up, cbot though. kinda indirect energy trade

crude pushing though big draw, the spx and vix positioning seems to confirm

spr is continuing to gulp up excess gas inventory

directionality was there, tried to reposition but caught on the wide blip

choosing the correct index was more important, but in the end they all converged

saw after about the debt ceiling announcement, bit of a leap of faith so exited

//

swing account designed to absorb some impact, but the draw is a bit tiny

ib account is okay but more slippage, so trying ticktick direct for a bit

should have access to all indexes including cbot without monthly data fees

//

ticktick direct allows scaling, but daily draw is also tiny so really just levels

have to reserve blip / reaction style for bigger draws, but allows great positioning

the levels have to be set pre-emptively in these smaller type swing accounts

//

ym led up but looking at tech since the levels were already high

and generated a wider range over the random news event, so pick the index accordingly

dollar also up there but stable, bonds dropped so yields climbing still

//

might be an okay way to go, dollar stable, yields rising while indexes still maintain

energy has wider levels but still ranged, could provide further momo w/ indexes

maybe forward looking, powell and minutes, ym leading, after large cap tech ran

//

treating the topstep swing live as a sim since unsure about the funding status

account type was discontinued as an offering but still holding the capital just in case

this meant having to pull positions though in favorable area prior to run up to preserve

//

may have to see about the monthly data and also just pre-emptively place orders

nq since ran first also weaker, but ex-large cap tech needs to recover too

also rty did not have the same range finding blip since support was well visited

may need to explore this more as well, since small caps were lagging prior

//

may have to use multiple live accounts to position for different indexes due to draw size

not liking the redundant data though, which makes something like ticktick a possibility

rty continues to improve since the basing at support was healthier

//

so turns out rty is the best performer followed by ym, nq and es run by large cap tech

both the dark positioning, options flow seem to support this movement

the remaining question is how these high yields are not doing damage

is the productivity cost and efficiency really being substituted alternatively by ai?

and is this enough to balance out the equation from substituted labor

or does this still compound the problem of reduced consumer buying power

//

the funny thing is asking this question to bard / chatgpt gives a consensus

that ai should improve the quality and sourcing of data, worker experience

not necessarily doing more with less, but doing more with more resources

enhancing / expanding per worker capabilities vs. replacing essential functions

time as a resources, more data driven decisions made faster, more operations

//

bard trained on language and code, does coding tedium also improve?

will there be an extra ai layer, hopefully with bypasses and transparency

otherwise figuring out / fixing a blackbox becomes recursive..

ai dependencies that source / control cloud data and also operations

crashing simultaneously create a need for multiple bugs to be fixed

but there are probably redundancies in place, fail safes, right?

as end users, we will not be blind and become solely dependent on this

more, interdependent.. right.. right?