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bwolf's ES Daily Trading Journal

  #111 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Done for today. First day trading the Leeloo PAs (4). Night and day vs the eval bundles, lol. From trading 1 - 8 ES lots per trade to 1 micro with $15 risk per trade, max DLL -($150). So 10 tries to DLL and profit units of $15 with the goal of getting 3 to 4x profit units per RTH session, or $45 to $60 per account unless I'm trailing something. After that, it hits a point of diminishing returns. I may go a bit bigger and shoot for the same profit in Globex, need to think about it and not do what I did below with the Apex evals.

On the Apex accounts, I got +29 ES ticks each last night and left it at that. It was a lot messier as I lift the RTH risk management criteria to trade ES during Globex, as things are a lot less chaotic and more predictable in the short run IMO. But I got to a very reasonable profit in 1 trade (+16 ES ticks or so), then left one limit order and went to have dinner, and sure enough, that one had me digging myself out of a hole with increasing size and max trailing drawdown of 50% on my evals. Definitely not what I want to do so I have to rein that in. That one doesn't show well in report format as it includes yesterday's RTH (NT8 goes by calendar days, not sessions).




FWIW There is this megaphone pattern on the daily, and the bottom is close by at 4055. And it seems oversold to me. We're under all three levels on the MIDAS anchored VWAP. It could move up strongly soon.


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  #112 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Gonna wrap it up early today. Caught the beginning of the move up in Globex from 84-92 with full-size contracts in both accounts (as anticipated in my journal post before Globex yesterday). Took a couple of small trades on the way up today, but I'm not crazy about -12% VIX days when there is nothing to do but go long, and yet it grinds ever so slowly with the ever-present danger of a 20pt sweep for them to get a better price. So either I wait for the sweep that may never come and watch what I am missing out on, or go long and pray it doesn't sweep down. I can always have a relatively short stop but that's also no fun. So better just call it a day with the daily profit realized anyway.

Have a great Cinco de Mayo!



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  #113 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564


Plotting major levels for next week on the daily (I get much more detailed on my 4hr chart, but can't really post that because I plot Adam Mancini's levels on there and probably shouldn't publicize them. For the most part, I don't trade his levels directly or anything like his style of trading, at least not in his time frame, but occasionally I do, and I always watch his levels for major inflection points. He is the only person I know who is constantly right, day in and day out, big picture -- no affiliation).

To me, this looks like the ES tried hard to break out, then tried hard to break down, and now it's averaging out in the middle of the upper portion of the double distribution on the daily chart, and will chop again some more in this chop filled area I have been posting about for weeks (note that the POC is in the lower portion, still, +/- 3987). The ES options expected move for tomorrow supports this notion, as it's fallen from +/- 40pts per day for the latter part of last week to 29pts for tomorrow. But as always, my guess is as good as any. I just try to visualize possibilities and where it'll go if I'm "wrong." I don't swing trade, just want to be aware of the broader context.


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  #114 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Small loss day today. I actually did well all day, even up to and including the brief liquidation in the ES. I had a level exactly where it turned around (4137.50, my level was 4137.75), which I had planned to take all day. And of course, when it got there, it was so strong coming down that I didn't feel comfortable riding it all the way back up. At that point, I was up about $75 in my Leeloo $2.5K PAs and double that in the Apex accounts. Then I gave it all back, taking Leeloo to -($150) DLL. I kept trading Apex and that ended up -($95). Overall I was getting it right. Once I got nailed I became more careless and "sized up" (a whopping 3 micros in Leeloo and double that in the $5K Apex accts). Keeping it all small makes the bad days very manageable. Back tomorrow!

FWIW, ES opened 1 tick under the 68 fib retrace on the last move down and closed one tick over it.


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  #115 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Down - 4 ES ticks on all accounts, stopped trading for the day. I was up by about 24 ticks earlier, but that was from Globex last night. So I gave back 28 ticks in RTH.

The current small-range random walk PA in RTH doesn't work for me. I do well with responsive trading when it's moving. I can live with trends, but I don't really like them. But this PA works for the first hour at most, when price is pinging off levels. After that it becomes counterproductive.

I do better to wait for Globex, where I can trade full-size ES vs micros. During RTH with the current PA, even if it's trading in a small range I can't remove my risk management limitations and trade ES because it's liable to shoot off in either direction with everything essentially 50/50, and even if it's not that far in the large scheme of things, it's too far for me to risk with these small Leeloo PA accounts. So I can't trade ES and there is not much to be gotten with micros when it's just ticking back and forth. In Globex, it's much less prone to sudden moves (before 12 AM PST, during Asia session), it tends to follow directions more predictably, and it does inflect nicely off levels. So better just to wait for that right now.

FWIW, yesterday I posted that the ES opened one tick below the 68.1 fib retrace on the movedown from May 1st and closed one tick above. Well, today it closed one tick above the 50% retrace! There must be some meaning attached to this


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  #116 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Had a pretty bad night last night. I went for my usual Globex trades and got caught flat-footed with a 4-lot ES on my Leeloo PA accounts. I wasn't trading Apex ones at all. I ended up making it worse over the course of the night. No unlike what @injpowwetrust went through (too bad, buddy, sorry to hear about that). I came within about $300 of my drawdown limit and then after RTH today ended up with a -($940) hit on it, so I have $1,560 of room (it's a $2.5K drawdown). P&L today was -15 ES points plus all the commissions. I was greedy and took those Globex ES trades for granted. I have not been going over 1 lot on these accounts and I went for 4 lots and it didn't go as planned. So I have more work cut out getting it out of the hole, but a portion of it is done.

Hope you guys fared better!

Oh, and continuing on my FWIW daily chart / fib tracking, today the ES closed 5 ticks over the 61.8 fib retrace on the move down starting May 1st. It is decidedly Undecided


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  #117 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Another day full of lessons for me. My Leeloo PAs were almost off life support, with $400 per account more profit in Globex, then I put on a trade during the premarket news (still in Globex mode with risk management parameters removed) and then another and a few more, none of which are in my plan (and night segued into day with risk management parameters missing). So the accounts are on life support again. Without going into details right this second (I will, but I am not up to it right now), just to give an idea, the amount of damage I inflicted on the accounts in 8 trades over 25 minutes right after the open, trading 2 lots ES, took me 6 hours trading 1- 2 micros to undo. That was just a part of it but essentially gives a good idea. It's simply too random to trade large with a minuscule account, although that is the instinct to try and get the accounts whole again quickly. To heal the wound fast. But it never works. Trading is totally degraded, with no rhyme or reason. So I have to do it $10 to $25 at a time. Such a grind.

Today on the daily chart ES closed between the 61.8 fib and 50% retrace on the May 1st move down. Down a hair (see previous daily entries) Just think, if you opened a micro either long or short over the last three days, and just held it, how much better off you'd be. Basically flat, with no stress


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  #118 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

Leeloo 4 PA accounts still on life support, but moved off critical life support to life support. Yesterday I got to within about $400 of my $2.5K trailing drawdown limit at $47,814. I clawed back a couple of hundred and couple-three hundred today, putting me $700 - $800 ahead of my drawdown limit. It may not sound so amazing but it's effectively doubling the account since yesterday (with -$82 max drawdown). You can look at it that way. To get back from 84% drawdown, I have to get 525% profit from $400 to get to $2,500, just my starting point! Puts into perspective how skewed the model is in Leeloo's favor, right? So 100% done ($400 to $800), with 212.5% remaining.

I guess there's something to be said for trading in life support mode, with 1 - 2 micros, very rarely 1 lot ES, when I feel real strongly about the odds getting 4 ticks, but really rarely. Nearly all 1 lot micros, sometimes 2. You can see the gross-to-net profit ratio, the amount eaten up with commissions using micros.

Let's see if I can continue this next week. I have to keep in mind that by any normal measure, even if I still had a $2.5K trailing drawdown what I got today would be a great day on this account size. Gotta keep up the life support mindset.

Have a good weekend!




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  #119 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564

In the spirit of thinking out loud (quietly, at the keyboard), here are some thoughts that were going through my mind about "life support" trading vs "regular" trading last week. In "regular" trading, the propensity is to trade a bit bigger, sometimes way too big (probably most of the time), and try to pick the perfect spots to enter, knowing all too well that you are walking a tightrope, not a wide bridge where you can wander from side to side.

However, locating the perfect trade, at least for scalpers or short swing traders (although I've heard it said that every trade starts as a scalp, which is probably true), usually means trying to find the ideal spot where price will either turn back on itself or break out. I'll focus on the former for now.

So you try to find that ideal spot where it'll turn back. Whether you use multiple linear regression channels, or VWAP standard deviation bands, or simple standard deviation bands, or Keltner channels, or TA levels, whatever it is, you want to be positioned exactly where it'll turn (or try to get the perfect level back test, etc.). So that means trying to figure out if the level will be front run by a tick or two, or if they will run stops, or if it'll be exactly on the level. Now, when you are sizing up ever so slightly or way too large, these decisions start to take monumental importance. And when you do this 30x per session, they take a toll on your brain (okay, maybe only 4x if you're trading big, but no less stressful, especially when over sizing).

You are constantly trying to assess things in relation to order flow, to other indexes, to the VIX, so your RWI or other trend indicators, trend lines, fib levels, volume or market profile levels, and so on. IMO the tendency is to be overly conservative (unless you are still in the FOMO stage), and to position ever so slightly too far out, because you really want to get the trades that will come out to the edge and have a "higher probability" of mean reverting (and you know that every point you're wrong will cost -$50 per contract in the ES). However, when you think about it, the further out it goes, say to the downside, the more price is being discounted, and maybe for good reason! (And vice versa going up). Maybe it'll go right through your entry and continue! Or maybe that liquidation break is just a Wyckoffian spring! Or "OTF" traders trying to get a better price before resuming up. Or just faking you out. I think more often than not people want to pay more as it goes up and pay less as it goes down, but I am always trying to figure these things out, moment to moment, like everybody else.

Meanwhile, because you are positioned too large (and inadvertently waiting for trades on the sidelines, where it's ironically riskier), you're missing out on everything going on in the middle! You are like that shy kid at the school dance, looking very self-confident and intellectual on the side, but dying to be in the middle, dancing with the crowd. And as you look at price trading back and forth in a small range, cursing the 'barbed wire' price action, the 'chop', etc., you are waiting for the ideal trade, which hardly ever materializes, at a huge opportunity cost.

On the other hand, if you just go in with one micro, in all those places where you KNOW it will move a few ticks to one side or the other, but simply don't have the nerve to make the move with your full-size contracts, you could be picking up $5, $10, and $20 bills one after the other in quick succession. You will lose a few, but on the whole, you will make more than you will lose. If you know what you're doing.

Such is life support trading.

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  #120 (permalink)
 
bwolf's Avatar
 bwolf 
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8, TOS, Tradingview, BH
Broker: Ninjatrader
Trading: ES
Posts: 258 since Aug 2019
Thanks Given: 682
Thanks Received: 564


My Leeloo PAs weren't traded in RTH. I had accidentally set the Guardian Angel risk mgr trading times to start at 12:00 instead of 00:01 and I am really locked out of it! So no trading those accounts and I don't want to start now at noon. Just one trade last night in Globex. It's fine. Better too safe than sorry

I started 3 new Leeloo bundles (5 "$50K" accounts -- really just $2.5K -- per bundle, one can qualify from each bundle for funded PA account). They were on sale again, it works out to about six bucks per account or $30 per bundle. These are actually replacing my Apex accounts, which I canceled. I like Apex and grew fond of them and I really liked what I did up to this point with those accounts. They helped me figure out all my risk parameters. But the Leeloo bundles are a great deal and mean that you effectively only have to be 20% right to get them qualified fast and inexpensively. My Apex accounts needed $9K to qualify phase 1, then would need another $5K to get me to my trailing drawdown halt, so $14K per account just to get to the point where I could work towards getting them to make money (these were "$150K accounts, i.e, $5K trailing drawdown). The Leeloo ones I can get done fast and require a total of $5500 for Phase 1 and 2, so 1/3 of the time or less given the fact that bundles allow for "wreckless" sizing to get them done.

The other thing was that trading two different combines created some holes in my risk management, as I had to have 2 instances of NT8 working and I only have 1 Guardian Angel risk mgr set up. I would have to buy another. It crossed my mind but given all the other reasons I just decided to close out Apex for now and focus on Leeloo, and lock up the other NT8 app.

So the P&L below is for the first day on the first 3 of 15 tries I get for 3 more funded PAs, trading 2 - 4 lots ES today. Then the PAs that are still on life support, with even stricter risk management than my "life support" trading last week (just 1 - 2 micros max in RTH, and 3 micros max in Globex). I was trading pretty large on the bundle accounts, so pretty big drawdown at one point, but did end on the P&L high (the summary is for 1 of 3 bundle accts traded today as they are all about the same). Let's see if these can get through on the first try

Hope everyone had a good Monday!



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