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Desperate call for help, I CANT execute my discretionary trading plan no matter what


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Desperate call for help, I CANT execute my discretionary trading plan no matter what

  #51 (permalink)
 
syswizard's Avatar
 syswizard 
Philadelphia PA
 
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After reviewing the set-ups and seeing how visual and discretionary his entries are and the fact that he has no exit strategy, there is no possible way to automate his "system". When computers have eyes, then maybe....LOL !!
Best advice is to quit trading.

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  #52 (permalink)
 
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 tigertrader 
Philly, Pa
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syswizard View Post
After reviewing the set-ups and seeing how visual and discretionary his entries are and the fact that he has no exit strategy, there is no possible way to automate his "system". When computers have eyes, then maybe....LOL !!
Best advice is to quit trading.


Agree with the former; but not the latter.

The problem is all his efforts to date have been focused on entries or trade initiation, with no thought to sizing, trade management, or exit strategies, as you stated. And, I guarantee you the following goes in his one ear and out his other ear. Because, he hears what he wants to hear!

But, here's some classic Bill Eckhardt with some reasoning of how where you initiate your trades are essentially a moot point...

Entry Price Has No Bearing on Subsequent Trade Management

"Suppose two traders, A and B, who are alike in most respects except the amount of money they have. Suppose A has 10% less money but he initiates a trade first. He gets in earlier than B. By the time B puts the trade on, the two traders have exactly the same equity. The best course of action has to be the same for both of these traders now. Mind you, these traders have very different entry prices. What this means is that once an initiation is made, it does not matter at all for subsequent decisions what the entry price was. It does not matter. Once you have made an initiation, what your initiation price was has no relevance. The trader must literally trade as though he doesn’t know what his initiation price is."

Bill goes on to point out...

Exits Are Much More Important Than Entries

Many traders spend the majority of their time searching for good places to initiate. It just seems to be part of human nature to focus on the most hopeful point of the trading cycle.
Our research indicated that liquidations are vastly more important than initiations. If you initiate purely randomly, you do surprisingly well with a good liquidation criterion. In contrast, random liquidations will kill the best system.

Position Sizing Is More Important Than Entries

When and where you initiate a trade is a lot less important than how large you trade and how you liquidate.
Unfortunately, traders tend to put a great effort into trade initiation and let risk management stagnate.

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  #53 (permalink)
nenuser
Buenos Aires, Argentina
 
Posts: 30 since Jul 2018
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tigertrader View Post
...and don't get out of winning trades until the market provides you with the feedback to cover or take profits, no matter how much money you have in the trade

trade the market and your signals, not your p&l

i'm sitting on a 3 lot es long right now and have ~$5000 in the trade - I have no inclination to take profits until Mr Market forces me out of the trade

That's my goal. I hope someday to be able to achieve that. Trade without any emotion at all, trade what it IS and see what it IS in front of me.

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  #54 (permalink)
nenuser
Buenos Aires, Argentina
 
Posts: 30 since Jul 2018
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tigertrader View Post
Agree with the former; but not the latter.

The problem is all his efforts to date have been focused on entries or trade initiation, with no thought to sizing, trade management, or exit strategies, as you stated. And, I guarantee you the following goes in his one ear and out his other ear. Because, he hears what he wants to hear!

But, here's some classic Bill Eckhardt with some reasoning of how where you initiate your trades are essentially a moot point...

Entry Price Has No Bearing on Subsequent Trade Management

"Suppose two traders, A and B, who are alike in most respects except the amount of money they have. Suppose A has 10% less money but he initiates a trade first. He gets in earlier than B. By the time B puts the trade on, the two traders have exactly the same equity. The best course of action has to be the same for both of these traders now. Mind you, these traders have very different entry prices. What this means is that once an initiation is made, it does not matter at all for subsequent decisions what the entry price was. It does not matter. Once you have made an initiation, what your initiation price was has no relevance. The trader must literally trade as though he doesn’t know what his initiation price is."

Bill goes on to point out...

Exits Are Much More Important Than Entries

Many traders spend the majority of their time searching for good places to initiate. It just seems to be part of human nature to focus on the most hopeful point of the trading cycle.
Our research indicated that liquidations are vastly more important than initiations. If you initiate purely randomly, you do surprisingly well with a good liquidation criterion. In contrast, random liquidations will kill the best system.

Position Sizing Is More Important Than Entries

When and where you initiate a trade is a lot less important than how large you trade and how you liquidate.
Unfortunately, traders tend to put a great effort into trade initiation and let risk management stagnate.

Well, before you speak you should ask?

How can you judge my work without having a single idea about what I thought?

Sadly, again, you are wrong on your judgment.

I have a plan for it all. And if you read things correctly @syswizard I did talk about my exit strategy.

As to sizing, I do have a plan for it. I also have a plan to increasing size.

So maybe I should post it? So you can judge by knowing:

Sizing:




As to this, I am even using double for all that. I am using $1200 per MES contract. Right now my account is much much bigger than that and I am still using one MES until I can prove consistency in my TRADE MANAGEMENT.

as I said for my exits and trade management: all in all out, I don't do runners for now. I only exit if a counter setup presents itself (aka the market tells me to exit) or if the target hits which as I said before is two times the initial risk.

My issue is not one of planning but of actioning on the plan and following the rules I have laid out after countless hours of studying.

I know you don't mean to be rough, just trying to speak the truth and its rough at times but you can ask if possible not judge before knowing please.

Apart from that, EXCELLENT extract. I appreciate it.

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  #55 (permalink)
nenuser
Buenos Aires, Argentina
 
Posts: 30 since Jul 2018
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syswizard View Post
After reviewing the set-ups and seeing how visual and discretionary his entries are and the fact that he has no exit strategy, there is no possible way to automate his "system". When computers have eyes, then maybe....LOL !!
Best advice is to quit trading.

I only trade discretionary. Different approaches. I wont follow your advice there!

How can you review a setup without knowing a single thing about it?

Who talked about automating discretionary trading? Can you automate the human mind? Can you automate the making of an art piece? Can you include all the variables that go into complex decision making?

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  #56 (permalink)
 
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 josh 
Georgia, US
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You're being defensive now, and maybe rightly so, because others are making assumptions about things which you feel may not be true. You have every right to defend yourself. But, it's not the course which will bring about the outcome you're seeking. Remember, you said you are desperate, which probably means you should be open to *all* ideas. Otherwise, you might not be desperate, but just seeking some validation.

Do you read the thread? It's for elite members, but it's a good source of info on ES and related stuff. Sometimes it's dormant, but tigertrader has been posting regularly again, and there are years worth of good posts there even when the thread is not active.

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  #57 (permalink)
nenuser
Buenos Aires, Argentina
 
Posts: 30 since Jul 2018
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josh View Post
You're being defensive now, and maybe rightly so, because others are making assumptions about things which you feel may not be true. You have every right to defend yourself. But, it's not the course which will bring about the outcome you're seeking. Remember, you said you are desperate, which probably means you should be open to *all* ideas. Otherwise, you might not be desperate, but just seeking some validation.

Do you read the thread? It's for elite members, but it's a good source of info on ES and related stuff. Sometimes it's dormant, but tigertrader has been posting regularly again, and there are years worth of good posts there even when the thread is not active.

Absolutely, thank you for posting this.

I am open to being criticized, but tiger is making assumptions of me which he didn't even ask about. Also, my plan is not the issue. Me not following it is. As I said, I do two times risk, I need a low win rate just to breakeven. And my win rate isn't low.

I am defensive because studying the market is my life work, I dedicated 100% of myself to understanding it, and I do understand it. And I am treated like I have no idea what I am doing. As I said, I have more than 10000 hours of chart time. From morning to night just watching the chart. But I cant trust myself. I cant do it, I need to solve that part. The psychological part. I posted stuff about my system to “prove myself” here and being taken seriously. But I have no intentions of changing, modifying, or doing anything about it because I know it works. I know it does, I cant execute on it which is what is making me desperate.

I have zero doubts Tiger is an amazing trader. I respect him 100% and his posts were very useful to me. I like being questioned also as this increases my confidence on the plan and also challenges the things I thought on my own and I also really like discussing the markets.

Thanks for the thread recommendation. I want to pay to be able to access it. Also, the Pa Dax thread.

Thanks again,

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  #58 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
Western Florida
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josh View Post
You're being defensive now, and maybe rightly so, because others are making assumptions about things which you feel may not be true. You have every right to defend yourself. But, it's not the course which will bring about the outcome you're seeking. Remember, you said you are desperate, which probably means you should be open to *all* ideas. Otherwise, you might not be desperate, but just seeking some validation.

Do you read the thread? It's for elite members, but it's a good source of info on ES and related stuff. Sometimes it's dormant, but tigertrader has been posting regularly again, and there are years worth of good posts there even when the thread is not active.

I will always take the opportunity to point out the "spoos" thread, which is one of the jewels of nexusfi.com. It has stretched over 11 years and is approaching 38,000 posts (not a typo). @tigertrader started it, and it has been posted in by most or all the heavy hitters on the forum over the years.

As @josh mentioned, it requires an Elite membership, because not everything in the forum is free (there is a one-time fee, a hundred bucks. That's 2 points in ES, but is still too much for some, which is of course a useful screening tool. )

Not guaranteed, obviously, to improve anyone's trading. Nothing is.

Not even guaranteed that you'll like it either.

But there's meat there. Your call, obviously.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #59 (permalink)
 
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 josh 
Georgia, US
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nenuser View Post
I am open to being criticized, but tiger is making assumptions of me which he didn't even ask about. Also, my plan is not the issue. Me not following it is. As I said, I do two times risk, I need a low win rate just to breakeven. And my win rate isn't low.

I am defensive because studying the market is my life work, I dedicated 100% of myself to understanding it, and I do understand it. And I am treated like I have no idea what I am doing. As I said, I have more than 10000 hours of chart time.

When it comes to chart time, you are the king. When it comes to trading for money, you are not. Tiger knows how to make money. You have not yet figured that out. As such, it would be wise for you to put your ego and feelings aside, and listen. I don't always agree with him, but he tends to make more money than I do trading, so I tend to listen. No one is asking you to change anything, nor do they really even care, most likely.

My opinion, which you didn't ask for, is that you do not like to be wrong, which just means that you're 100% human. However, in trading, no one really cares that it's your life's work, or how many hours you've sat in front of a computer. No one cares if you make a million dollars in a year -- you don't get a parade or anything. No one cares that you were right on a trade. Trade because you enjoy it, trade to make money, trade for the challenge, or whatever. But don't trade to prove anything to anyone, including yourself, because nobody cares. The sooner you really internalize that, then each trade takes on less meaning. Losing means less, winning means less, and then you can just trade, and not care much about the outcome, because you have removed your ego from the equation.

Years ago, I have taken trades and afterward had to lie in the bed because I was sick. I have cried. It's been a long time since then, but I do remember being so invested in succeeding that it practically wrecked my life. I'll spare you the "it's not worth your health" line, but I will get very practical: that guy, me years ago, was *not* a winning trader, precisely because I had too much of my own self-worth tied up into being successful. Let go of the *need* for something to happen, and you'll start to see that it comes to you almost on its own. "It's my life's work" means you're too invested. Right now, you *are* your trading. You won't succeed from that standpoint. I know it's hard, but seriously: let it go. Separate yourself from the market. Just trade. Learn to enjoy losing (small). There's freedom there. Best thing you could do is stop trading for a week, don't even look at the market or quotes, and see what happens. You will have withdrawal, and that means you're too invested, and will never win like that. Get some separation. Put this off for a month, a year, 2 years, and you will be exactly where you are right now. It's your life and time. Heal a little right now for a week or two, or spend the next few years going in a circle. Doubt me at your own peril on this, I recognize what's going on with you because I've seen it in myself.

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  #60 (permalink)
 
syswizard's Avatar
 syswizard 
Philadelphia PA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Multicharts
Broker: Ironbeam, Rithmic
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nenuser View Post
Who talked about automating discretionary trading? Can you automate the human mind? Can you automate the making of an art piece? Can you include all the variables that go into complex decision making?

Of course not, but an algo can be:
1) consistent
2) impartial
3) disciplined

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