nenuser 

I have more, but this gives you an idea hopefully.

This helps, but it's not quite in the detail required.
Comment: My gosh you have a lot of "set-ups" !!!
Which one is best ?
What about your exit strategies ? If none, then they are all discretionary ?
That could be where your problem lies.

syswizard 

This helps, but it's not quite in the detail required. Comment: My gosh you have a lot of "set-ups" !!! Which one is best ? What about your exit strategies ? If none, then they are all discretionary ? That could be where your problem lies.

My plan is quite simple, entries are always a tick above the high of the signal bar with a stop below the low of the signal bar for longs and viceversa for shorts. Target 1 is always 2 times the initial risk. As I am only doing one contract for now its all in all out.

As for entries, its a combination of location + context + signal bar quality (lots of deciding this is visual, I have many different shapes I look for a signal bar. I look for little overlap, and the closing price. As well as inside bar, outside bar)

The context is simple also, right now compared to 2-3 months ago my trading has been simplified even more. I worked on simplifyign what I want to trade and also I found that I only want to decide on when a setup is a setup when both data and intuition line up. I also have fixed rules for my state of mind. No fomo, no rushing, patience. I learnt to identify this states on my mind. I have no trouble deciding on what is an entry, but actually holding firmly, with conviction, while I wait for either stop or target.

nenuser 

Here's one live execution from yesterday. Same damn mistake as you can see. I only traded the AM session. Short waas based off bear impulse and flag, LHMTR. Target was much lower at 3878, I only took 1.5 pts when 11 pts where available. You can see "shit like an elephant eat like a bird" isnt sustainable.

nenuser 

My plan is quite simple, entries are always a tick above the high of the signal bar with a stop below the low of the signal bar for longs and viceversa for shorts. Target 1 is always 2 times the initial risk. As I am only doing one contract for now its all in all out. As for entries, its a combination of location + context + signal bar quality (lots of deciding this is visual, I have many different shapes I look for a signal bar. I look for little overlap, and the closing price. As well as inside bar, outside bar) The context is simple also, right now compared to 2-3 months ago my trading has been simplified even more. I worked on simplifyign what I want to trade and also I found that I only want to decide on when a setup is a setup when both data and intuition line up. I also have fixed rules for my state of mind. No fomo, no rushing, patience. I learnt to identify this states on my mind. I have no trouble deciding on what is an entry, but actually holding firmly, with conviction, while I wait for either stop or target.

OK, so you entered this short with a sell stop at a good place, you might have entered a stop loss (not shown), and then you closed it, not on the stop or the target, but on another rule, something like: "Act without any point because I can't stand possibly having a loss."

I know that's not a rule, but it might as well have been. It's also the rule you really follow and believe in. So try a new rule: "Act according to the written rules, and allow myself to have as many losses as come along until I reach a daily limit (and maybe you won't reach it). Don't ever do anything else until the losses reach x amount, then stop for the day and reassess either the rules of the trading decisions."

Otherwise, throw away your written rules because you don't mean them anyway. Also, stop trading and find something else, because you aren't going to get anywhere if you won't do something like you say you will.

Don't bother about getting new and better rules, don't look for better things to do, because you are committed to not doing them anyway. An intellectual or conceptual or logical or technical solution will not help you. You had a good set of rules for that particular chart (I don't know and am not commenting on any other situation) and you decided (yes, it was a decision) to use the unwritten rule -- the one you really mean -- and bail out with no reason.

I know this is the point you have been making. My suggestion is still really two things:

(1) do something about your financial situation so you can afford more losses,

(2) Stop this. That's just it, Stop it. Yes, I know it's not that easy, yes, I know the panic from direct experience too. But don't look outside yourself. Summon up whatever will you have -- and yes, it may not be much, and this will not be easy, but don't just panic and blow up a good trade. Sit with it, and have your stop in to protect you, and then squirm and yell and do anything else until the stop is hit or some target is hit, but hands off the mouse once you're launched.

By the way, this is how you find out if the rules are any good. You first have to follow them.

Bob.

bobwest 

OK, so you entered this short with a sell stop at a good place, you might have entered a stop, and then you closed it, not on the stop or the target, but on another rule, something like: "Act without any point because I can't stand possibly having a loss." I know that's not a rule, but it might as well have been. It's also the rule you really follow and believe in. So try a new rule: "Act according to the written rules, and allow myself to have as many losses as come along until I reach a daily limit (and maybe you won't reach it). Don't ever do anything else until the losses reach x amount, then stop for the day and reassess either the rules of the trading decisions." Otherwise, throw away your written rules because you don't mean them anyway. Also, stop trading and find something else, because you aren't going to get anywhere if you won't do something like you say you will. Don't bother about getting new and better rules, don't look for better things to do, because you are committed to not doing them anyway. An intellectual or conceptual or logical or technical solution will not help you. You had a good set of rules for that particular chart (I don't know and am not commenting on any other situation) and you decided (yes, it was a decision) to use the unwritten rule -- the one you really mean -- and bail out with no reason. I know this is the point you have been making. My suggestion is still really two things: (1) do something about your financial situation so you can afford more losses, (2) Stop this. That's just it, Stop it. Yes, I know it's not that easy, yes, I know the panic from direct experience too. But don't look outside yourself. Summon up whatever will you have -- and yes, it may not be much, and this will not be easy, but don't just panic and blow up a good trade. Sit with it, and have your stop in to protect you, and then squirm and yell and do anything else until the stop is hit or some target is hit, but hands off the mouse once you're launched. By the way, this is how you find out if the rules are any good. You first have to follow them. Bob.

Thanks Bob, it really means a lot to receive help. When I mean I am quite desperate I mean it. I am willing to give it all, all my trades, all my plan out, my whole mind out. I dont want to be misunderstood.

I got chills from your post. I know its the truth. I need to JUST DO IT. I cant find more excuses.

You know, I closed that trade out of some sort of inner reluctance to win, I wasn't even afraid. I need to beat it.

Just now, there was another one. This time I found reasons not to take it. After watching the chart for countless and countless hours I get a feeling in my gut directly when there's something which IS a trade. I just know it. Yet I had that, and rationalized myself out of it. I started thinking reasons ok this is not one because mid TR, because its choppy, etc. But it was at a PIVOT, with a good bear RVB, had a magnet below (the low of the TR). Yet, same thing. My fear of failing is high. We know this is the issue. I am trying to do both of your suggestions, next week I have a job interview which will at least give me a good income to support myself aand maybe beat my fear of taking a risk, even if it has been deeply calculated.

nenuser 

Thanks Bob, it really means a lot to receive help. When I mean I am quite desperate I mean it. I am willing to give it all, all my trades, all my plan out, my whole mind out. I dont want to be misunderstood. I got chills from your post. I know its the truth. I need to JUST DO IT. I cant find more excuses. You know, I closed that trade out of some sort of inner reluctance to win, I wasn't even afraid. I need to beat it. Just now, there was another one. This time I found reasons not to take it. After watching the chart for countless and countless hours I get a feeling in my gut directly when there's something which IS a trade. I just know it. Yet I had that, and rationalized myself out of it. I started thinking reasons ok this is not one because mid TR, because its choppy, etc. But it was at a PIVOT, with a good bear RVB, had a magnet below (the low of the TR). Yet, same thing. My fear of failing is high. We know this is the issue. I am trying to do both of your suggestions, next week I have a job interview which will at least give me a good income to support myself aand maybe beat my fear of taking a risk, even if it has been deeply calculated.

You have already taken a step in a good direction.

Also, please forgive me if I overstepped my bounds somewhere.

I wish you good luck with the job finding process.

nenuser 

Here's one live execution from yesterday. Same damn mistake as you can see. I only traded the AM session. Short waas based off bear impulse and flag, LHMTR. Target was much lower at 3878, I only took 1.5 pts when 11 pts where available. You can see "shit like an elephant eat like a bird" isnt sustainable.

Money/trade management and the skills to control intense emotions and reduce self-destructive behaviors is infinitely more important for success, than how you initiate your trades. Your problem in a nutshell, is that you don't trade to maximize gain, but rather to maximize the chance of gain. Your desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against you. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and is probably inversely related to performance. Asymmetric payoffs are the key.

That being said, you've spent 6 years hitched to the Al Brooks wagon. You probably would have been better off if you would have watched Albert Brooks. Al Brooks isn't a CIO, or hedge fund manager, or an institutional trader. He doesn't earn his income from trading. He earns his living from selling books and courses about trading to people who know nothing about trading. Do you think he does this for altruistic reasons, or perhaps he does this because he found it to be a more profitable alternative to his trading. IMO, you've wasted your time.

"Bar-to-bar price action trading" will only take you so far. You're the living corollary to that statement. It provides you with a very myopic view of the market, and offers absolutely no deeper understanding. In this case, you're selling the market simply because of a set-up. Perhaps there is a high probability that a specific type of price action leads to these set-ups. But, what you really want to know is what is the probability of having a sustained change in direction given this set-up. Just because one probability is high, it in no way implies that the other one is high as well. But, if you understand flows, positioning, sentiment, and have other tools providing you with input, you might be able to acquire the confidence to make better decisions.

tigertrader 

Money/trade management and the skills to control intense emotions and reduce self-destructive behaviors is infinitely more important for success, than how you initiate your trades. Your problem in a nutshell, is that you don't trade to maximize gain, but rather to maximize the chance of gain. Your desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against you. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and is probably inversely related to performance. Asymmetric payoffs are the key. That being said, you've spent 6 years hitched to the Al Brooks wagon. You probably would have been better off if you would have watched Albert Brooks. Al Brooks isn't a CIO, or hedge fund manager, or an institutional trader. He doesn't earn his income from trading. He earns his living from selling books and courses about trading to people who know nothing about trading. Do you think he does this for altruistic reasons, or perhaps he does this because he found it to be a more profitable alternative to his trading. IMO, you've wasted your time. "Bar-to-bar price action trading" will only take you so far. You're the living corollary to that statement. It provides you with a very myopic view of the market, and offers absolutely no deeper understanding. In this case, you're selling the market simply because of a set-up. Perhaps there is a high probability that a specific type of price action leads to these set-ups. But, what you really want to know is what is the probability of having a sustained change in direction given this set-up. Just because one probability is high, it in no way implies that the other one is high as well. But, if you understand flows, positioning, sentiment, and have other tools providing you with input, you might be able to acquire the confidence to make better decisions.

Hey, first of all thanks for the input.

I completely agree with the first part "Money/trade management and the skills to control intense emotions and reduce self-destructive behaviors is infinitely more important for success, than how you initiate your trades" and as you can see my lacking this skills is making me not being able to get out of something which is I should be able to if logically thought.

As to the second part, I don't really want to discuss much the topic of which strategy is best. I think there are many solid profitable strategies and none of them is the holy grail. As to what you say about Al Brooks, I agree partly. I think his concepts are really good, but them alone are lacking. That's why they are only one tool in my toolbox. One of the things which I deem very important and changed the way I saw the markets is price flow/tape reading. What I mean by this is I watch specifically the dynamics of buying and selling pressure of price itself outside of the "5 minute candle" or any bar interval in ticks, seconds, minutes, hours, etc. By this I can evaluate the interest, who is in control and when specifically has control of the current price switched. Setups help define this but them along aren't fully enough. I believe context is always more important than setup. As per, you don't want to be buying high in a trading range but you want to be buying high in a trend.

As an example, today's price action is all inside the opening range. You can see how the extremes are being faded, how the midpoint area acts and what are the algos targeting (the other side of the range). Per this, knowing its a range, one wants to buy low and sell high. Until conditions change (a successful breakout out of the range). Is this AL brooks? Maybe, I don't really care much about the discoverer or the name given but how do this concepts apply.

The best advice that has been given is trading the micros . Trade them until you are profitable and try for a reasonable number of points say 3 to 5. Even if commissions take your profit it is still a positive reinforcement. This what I been trying to do, If I can make two good trades for seven pts I stop for the day. What I am learning that trying to get just this few of pts still is not easy. Today I lost, very choppy day but there was still plenty of good trades to be made. Try again tomorrow. I have spent years trying this and may soon give it up. Just hard to stop something that I put so much time.

tigertrader 

"Bar-to-bar price action trading" will only take you so far.

I second this, with the caveat that keeping it simple can work for periods of time. Just don't view the market in a vacuum. Said another way, one might do great with a "setup" in a particular market regime, only to have that same setup miserably fail when the market regime changes, and with no context outside of setups to trade, adjustments are next to impossible to make. So, consistently (over months or years), an overly simplistic approach is bound to leave the trader frustrated.

@nenuser : I agree with @Richh .. if you're not trading micros, you should be. Trade 1 micro per every $5K of capital, at most. A 10 handle ES move is 0.2%, but is 1% of your capital. That's plenty of leverage. Trade less size if you can. The trade shouldn't matter. Remember, it's not really *real* anyway. It's just a virtual casino. It's a game. Play it to win, but expect losses. Just keep them small. Ultimately though, in, win, lose...don't worry about it.

...and don't get out of winning trades until the market provides you with the feedback to cover or take profits, no matter how much money you have in the trade

trade the market and your signals, not your p&l

i'm sitting on a 3 lot es long right now and have ~$5000 in the trade - I have no inclination to take profits until Mr Market forces me out of the trade