blackgrey45 

Yeah, my profits are usually smaller than my losses and my winning days are smaller than my losing days. Is that bad?

In a sense, yes that's bad. You need to have a very high win percentage to keep from losing long term. And even then, you run the risk of losing several trades in a row that make profitability for that week or month almost impossible.

I am speaking about your per-trade results only. I'm not sure about the per-day part but I don't think that's really good either.

It looks like you are scalping, but why are you cutting your winners so short?

Tuglife 

In a sense, yes that's bad. You need to have a very high win percentage to keep from losing long term. And even then, you run the risk of losing several trades in a row that make profitability for that week or month almost impossible. I am speaking about your per-trade results only. I'm not sure about the per-day part but I don't think that's really good either. It looks like you are scalping, but why are you cutting your winners so short?

I take any profit I can get which might be 1 to 5 ticks and hold onto my losses until my daily loss limit is triggered which is set at $200. I can understand the logic behind letting my winners grow and cut my losses quick but that doesn't seem to work for me in practice. The more I post the more I realize I have no edge and not really any strategy. I may need to stop trading for some time and evaluate what I am doing here before I throw more money at it.

Anyways, thank you for the questions!

blackgrey45 

I take any profit I can get which might be 1 to 5 ticks and hold onto my losses until my daily loss limit is triggered which is set at $200. I can understand the logic behind letting my winners grow and cut my losses quick but that doesn't seem to work for me in practice. The more I post the more I realize I have no edge and not really any strategy. I may need to stop trading for some time and evaluate what I am doing here before I throw more money at it. Anyways, thank you for the questions!

The best thing that has happened to me recently with my trading has been paper trading. I finally take it very seriously, so I can identify mistakes, reinforce good behavior, and become a better trader. All for the price of a data feed and the time I spend doing it (valuable lol).

I would suggest paper trading until you can get things working right.

So I have completely stepped away from the ES due to volatility caused by bank failures.

Continuing with my "no strategy" strategy. Taking quick profits and hold onto losers.

13 trades in the MES. 1 contract each.

Trade 1
Short @1:12pm EST
Entry 3899.75
Exit 3899.25 (Trailing Stop)
Result +$2.50

Trade 2
Long @1:26pm EST
Entry 3901.75
Exit 3903.75
Result +$10.00

Trade 3
Short @1:45pm EST
Entry 3913.75
Exit 3911.75
Result +$10.00

Trade 4
Short @1:52pm EST
Entry 3910.75
Exit 3919.75
Result -$45.00

Trade 5
Long @2:42pm EST
Entry 3919.50
Exit 3922
Result +$12.50

Trade 6
Long @2:44pm EST
Entry 3917.50
Exit 3920.25
Result +$13.75

Trade 7
Long @2:46pm EST
Entry 3916.75
Exit 3919.25
Result +$12.50

Trade 8
Long @2:54pm EST
Entry 3918.50
Exit 3921
Result +$12.50

Trade 9
Long @3:17pm EST
Entry 3915.75
Exit 3894.75
Result -$105.00

Trade 10
Short @3:27pm EST
Entry 3894.25
Exit 3892.25
Result +$10.00

Trade 11
Long @3:51pm EST
Entry 3895.25
Exit 3897.75
Result +$12.50

Trade 12
Long @3:56pm EST
Entry 3889
Exit 3893.75
Result +$23.75

Trade 13
Short @4:00pm EST
Entry 3889.50
Exit 3897
Result -$37.50

For a daily result of -$67.50 (not including fees)

15 trades. I have been pretty active in the market today, probably overtrading.
1 contract each.
Market MES

Trade 1
Short @12:00pm EST
Entry 3964
Exit 3961.25
Result +$13.75

Trade 2
Short @12:13pm EST
Entry 3964.25
Exit 3962.25
Result +$10.00

Trade 3
Long @12:25pm EST
Entry 3953
Exit 3955.25
Result +$11.25

Trade 4
Long @12:55pm EST
Entry 3948
Exit 3950
Result +$10.00

Trade 5
Long @1:05pm EST
Entry 3945.75
Exit 3937
Result -$43.75

Trade 6
Long @1:15pm EST
Entry 3932.75
Exit 3927.50
Result -$26.25

Trade 7
Short @1:21pm EST
Entry 3927
Exit 3932
Result -$25.00

Trade 8
Short @1:26pm EST
Entry 3936
Exit 3934
Result +$10.00

Trade 9
Long @1:29pm EST
Entry 3934.25
Exit 3936.25
Result +$10.00

Trade 10
Short @1:38pm EST
Entry 3937.75
Exit 3935.50
Result +$11.25

Trade 11
Long @2:06pm EST
Entry 3920.25
Exit 3922.75
Result +$12.50

Trade 12
Short @2:10pm EST
Entry 3923
Exit 3919.50
Result +$17.50

Trade 13
Short @2:31pm EST
Entry 3932.50
Exit 3930
Result +$12.50

Trade 14
Short @2:48pm EST
Entry 3935
Exit 3932
Result +$15.00

Trade 15
Long @3:07pm EST
Entry 3920.25
Exit 3920.25
Result $0.00

Daily result +$38.75 (fees not included)
Following BLASH (buy low and sell high)

Strategy: BLASH buy lows and sell highs.

6 trades.
1 contract each.
Market MES.

Trade 1
Long @10:49am EST
Entry 3878
Exit 3881.75
Result +$18.75

Trade 2
Short @11:03am EST
Entry 3894
Exit 3891.75
Result +$11.25

Trade 3
Short @1:16pm EST
Entry 3894.75
Exit 3891.75
Result +$15.00

Trade 4
Short @2:24pm EST
Entry 3912.50
Exit 3910
Result +$12.50

Trade 5
Long @2:47pm EST
Entry 3912
Exit 3914.50
Result +$12.50

Trade 6
Long @3:09pm EST
Entry 3908
Exit 3912.25
Result +$21.25

Daily Result +$91.25


Of note: Crude oil trading with a 66 handle, amazing!

Also, I am monitoring the ES market trying to figure out when its safe to reenter the ES market. So far I am still staying in the MES market due to volatility.

Hey blackgrey,
I looked through your journal and I am wondering what you are doing. You do not write much about a strategy or approach you have for the market.

Furthermore I see big losses month after month. Please excuse me if I am wrong, but to me, it looks like you are gambling.

I went over the last two pages and calculated your average winner and average loser. (Everything in Dollar)

Average Winner is 15.
Average Loser is 88.

And that is BEFORE commissions.

Taking commissions into account you would need a win rate close to 90% to ONLY BREAK EVEN!
Which you do not achieve.
You had around 80% over the last 42 trades. But even IF you get it to 90%, that would still be only breakeven...

Sure, looking only on the last two pages is not statistically significant, but you provide a monthly overview where it is not looking much better.

I see that you have switched to the MES.
With the MES you are taking more ticks. On the ES you took only one tick. Now you take 6-8 ticks in one trade.
Why would you not do that with the ES? They basically make the same moves so you can get the same ticks with the ES. The dollar amount of the trade (when not based on account size) should not be the deciding factor to exit a trade.

Not that I would advice you to go back to the ES. I would stay on the MES and preserve my capital until I proved to myself that my strategy was working.

Have you calculated the basics like your winrate and your average winner/loser?

Dmonz 

Hey blackgrey, I looked through your journal and I am wondering what you are doing. You do not write much about a strategy or approach you have for the market. Furthermore I see big losses month after month. Please excuse me if I am wrong, but to me, it looks like you are gambling. I went over the last two pages and calculated your average winner and average loser. (Everything in Dollar) Average Winner is 15. Average Loser is 88. And that is BEFORE commissions. Taking commissions into account you would need a win rate close to 90% to ONLY BREAK EVEN! Which you do not achieve. You had around 80% over the last 42 trades. But even IF you get it to 90%, that would still be only breakeven... Sure, looking only on the last two pages is not statistically significant, but you provide a monthly overview where it is not looking much better. I see that you have switched to the MES. With the MES you are taking more ticks. On the ES you took only one tick. Now you take 6-8 ticks in one trade. Why would you not do that with the ES? They basically make the same moves so you can get the same ticks with the ES. The dollar amount of the trade (when not based on account size) should not be the deciding factor to exit a trade. Not that I would advice you to go back to the ES. I would stay on the MES and preserve my capital until I proved to myself that my strategy was working. Have you calculated the basics like your winrate and your average winner/loser?

Hey Dmonz,

Thank you for your comments and questions.

Am I gambling? Yes this is gambling. I have admitted in my journal that I have no edge to speak of. Sometimes I get lucky and other times I do not do so good. Paper trading does not do much for me, I really like playing with real money and putting real risk on the table.

With regard to my monthly overviews: Yes they have revealed that I have been a net loser. I have been trading the ES since about November and have taken losses every month since then. I used to calculate my average win rate and average win size, etc. but found this does not help me very much.

Going back to my decision on which market to trade: I was trading the ES for the last couple of months before switching to the MES just this week because of volatility. When trading the ES I was usually taking a 1-3 tick winners 15-20 tick losses on the other side of the ledger. Obviously, if I want to trade the ES profitably I have to reduce my losers. Trading the MES is much less taxing on me and I am willing to wait for my winners to grow a little bit larger.

About my strategy: Like I said I have no real edge and go in and out of various strategies. I have been trading off and on since 2010 and the most consistent strategy I have followed over this time is buying lows and selling highs which is very general and hard to pin down.

In summary I am having fun and enjoying trading a lot. I will keep trading the MES until the volatility comes down a bit. Hopefully, I shed a little bit of light on my situation. Thank you again for your response. This type of thing helps me out a lot.

Sincerely,

Blackgrey45

@blackgrey45,

I'm sure you have considered this but why not trade super small until you find a path to profitability? Giving away $$ can get frustrating.

edit: sorry, i just read you are doing this to some degree. Carry on...be careful out there!

blackgrey45 

Am I gambling? Yes this is gambling.

Then we have a different approach to the market. Maybe you have enough capital that it doesn't hurt you to lose 1 to 2k every month. I still could imagine that there are more fun ways to spend that amount of money. But I am not here to judge. And thank you for being open about it.

blackgrey45 

I used to calculate my average win rate and average win size, etc. but found this does not help me very much. When trading the ES I was usually taking a 1-3 tick winners 15-20 tick losses on the other side of the ledger.

It could help you by showing you if you can expect to win or lose money. Take your numbers as an example.
In the worst case you have 1 tick win and 20 tick loss. To calculate your break even: 20/(20+1)=0,95
That means you would need a 95% winrate to only break even!
In the best case scenarios you have 3 tick winners and 15 tick loser. Then you still would need a 83% win rate to only break even!! And again, that is before commissions. It gets worse if you add commissions.

I can guarantee you, that if you stay on this path, you will lose all your money...

blackgrey45 

Obviously, if I want to trade the ES profitably I have to reduce my losers.

Yes! You also have to think about letting your winners run longer. You are already doing it on the MES.

blackgrey45 

Trading the MES is much less taxing on me and I am willing to wait for my winners to grow a little bit larger.

If the MES is less taxing on you, that indicates to me, that the money you are risking on the ES is maybe not insignificant to you? If that is the truth, then you should stop the gambling approach, trade less size and think about changing and/or refining your strategy.

blackgrey45 

About my strategy: Like I said I have no real edge and go in and out of various strategies. I have been trading off and on since 2010 and the most consistent strategy I have followed over this time is buying lows and selling highs which is very general and hard to pin down. In summary I am having fun and enjoying trading a lot.

Having fun is important. But if you are in the markets to make money and/or your losses hurt you financially, you have to rethink what you are doing here, because right now, based on your numbers, you will lose your money.